Round 13: Matchday Preview
BRISTOL BEARS vs SALE SHARKS
Friday 7th January
Ashton Gate
19:45
When this fixture was marked before the season started, not many expected it to be a matchup between 12th place and 9th place. Nevertheless, here we are with both sides looking to make a serious push in the second half of the season. Sale travel down to the South West looking to win their first away game of the season whilst the Bears look for their first win since Round 8. Also, A special mention to Wayne Barnes who is set to take charge of his 250th Premiership appearance in this fixture.
Bristol’s season has been a nightmare to this point, the Bears currently sit in 12th having only won 3 games this season. What’s even more baffling is that Bristol lead the league in the following categories: Average Metres per Carry (6.84m), Dominant Collisions (90) and Offloads per Game (12). However, the last two performances from Pat Lam’s side have been far more promising. After losing in the 84th minute to Leicester two weeks ago, Bristol managed to earn an away losing bonus point in Exeter last week. The reason for the improved form is the defence. The defensive line has been far more connected over the past two weeks and the work rate, particularly when defending in their red zone, has been much better.
Pat Lam has opted for three changes to the starting lineup from Round 12. Max Lahiff starts at loosehead looking to sure up the scrum, he replaces Yann Thomas. Also in the pack, Nathan Hughes’ absence forces a shuffle as John Hawkins comes into the second row, moving Chris Vui to the blindside flank and Fitz Harding to number 8. Henry Purdy is the final change, he starts on the blindside wing as Ioan Lloyd moves to the other side with Luke Morahan shifting to fullback to replace the injured Charles Piutau.
This is another massive test for Bristol, they’ve been close against two powerhouses in Leicester and Exeter over recent weeks and this game gives them another chance to knock over a side loaded with big names. We’ve said it all season but it is imperative that Bristol get over the gain line in order to provide their backline with front foot ball. It’s far easier said than done but the Bears have to find a way to compete with this monstrous Sale pack. If they can, Semi Radradra with space and time on the ball against Rob Du Preez is a one-sided matchup that could cause chaos for that Sale defence.
In the build-up to Sale’s win over Wasps last week, Alex Sanderson emphasised that the Sharks needed to improve on their red-zone efficiency going forward. The stats back that up as Sale average the second most Red Zone entries in the Premiership this season and the best average territory at 56.2% per game, but have one of the lowest points per game averages in the league. Last week was far better in that aspect with Sale capitalising on their Red Zone entries well in the first half. It was a much-needed win for Alex Sanderson’s men but the task gets more challenging this week as they look for their first away win of the season. For this clash, the Sharks have made only one change to their starting XV with Tom Curry re-entering the frame after being rested last week, he replaces his brother Ben who moves to the bench.
This clash is a big opportunity for Sale, up to this point they haven’t quite clicked as a group but injuries have been a big factor. As their squad starts to get healthier, the belief will grow that they can accomplish something similar to what Harlequins did last year; fly up the table in the back half of the season. The Sharks are an excellent defensive unit, fueled by their ability to win collisions and attack rucks with their menacing pack. Against a Bristol side that has struggled to ‘win the gain line all season, it will be a huge opportunity for Sale to dominate that area throughout the game. We saw AJ MacGinty produce magic last week with consistent front foot ball, and it will be no different this week if those big Sale forwards can replicate their efforts.
This is a fascinating matchup in numerous ways, Sale certainly have the edge up front with Tom Curry coming back into the fold along with the likes of Lood De Jager and the Du Preez twins. Against a weakened Bristol pack, that is a massive advantage and Sale should be able to dominate the contact area and the set-piece. However, if Semi Radradra is given space with Rob Du Preez in front of him, there will be all sorts of problems for the Sharks.
Ultimately, even with the home advantage, I don’t think Bristol will have the ability to get enough go forward to provide their backs with enough opportunities against a fully loaded Sale pack. Tom Curry is a massive catalyst for this Sharks side and I believe his presence in this game will be enough for the northerners to get their first away win of the season and start 2022 with back to back wins.
Prediction: Bristol Bears 23 - 24 Sale Sharks
HARLEQUINS vs EXETER CHIEFS
Saturday 8th January
Twickenham Stoop
15:00
Last year’s epic final gets an early 2022 re-run when the Stoop faithful hope Exeter in what is bound to be another titanic clash. Both sides are starting to hit a bit of a purple patch after suffering some early and mid-season upsets. Yet both are on track for a late-season finals push and this game will no doubt be a preview of what is to come later in the season.
Harlequins are coming off a tight win against the up and coming Gloucester and are starting to hit real form. Their win against Northampton a fortnight ago reminded everyone just how much fun this team is to watch, but also how lethal their long-range and attack first mentality can be. The Chiefs have gone through a less dominant than usual first half of the season, yet even an untrained eye can notice how Rob Baxter is prepping his men to peak at the right time this year, to avoid what was a very disappointing season finale last time out.
Harlequins have started the year with a statement away win against an in-form Gloucester side. They’ll be looking to make it three wins in a row in their final re-run. Whilst their attacking flair continues to be their calling card, their defensive resilience and ability to turn defence into attack has been their greatest route to success so far. In fact, Harlequins lead the league with 8 tries scored directly from turnover ball. Exeter have not been as clinical as usual, so far this season and Quins will be looking to put their ball-players under pressure. The key for Quins’ success is always to maintain front-foot ball. Esterhuizen is (unsurprisingly) leading the league in Successful Gainline Carries (69) so far this season, and the quick ruck speed that they generate subsequently makes them very difficult to defend. Against Exeter, their attacking game will be unchanged, but defensively they must make sure that they stay connected on Exeter’s deep looping plays. The playmaking presence of Slade in the 13 channel makes the defensive reads for Northmore and Marchant extremely challenging. If they underplay him he can beat his man or unleash the likes of Cordero and Nowell. If they overplay him, he has the ability to pin them in the corner with a deft grubber. Harlequins have struggled with their maul defence and it has been their achilles heel so far this season. On the other hand, their scrum has been rock solid, with a 95.6% success rate (also highest in the league), they’ve been able to score 6 tries from their set-piece (tied with Northampton for first in the Prem).
This week, their starting XV is unchanged, yet they do welcome back the return of Joe Marler who pulled out late from last week’s matchup, moving Santiago Garcia Botta to the bench.
Exeter have been picking up steam late and Rob Baxter has emphasised the need to play their best Rugby at the end of the season. Baxter lamented how they cruised into last year’s final and are looking to right the wrongs of last year.
Their attack is starting to blossom again, and despite only winning narrowly last week against Bristol, they created a number of opportunities and looked like the Chiefs of old. This week they’ll be looking to bring back the defensive unity that they have been long known for and keep Quins’ attacking threats at bay by depriving them of opportunities.
Harlequins crave possession and go-forward, so far the teams that have beaten them have been those that have kept them in check physically. Exeter will no doubt look to do the same, challenging hard at the breakdown and blitzing in defence will be key to keep Quins on the back foot. Joe Simmonds will no doubt be looking to make Quins play out from the corners with Exeter’s powerful pack employing an aggressive kick chase. Although Tyrone Green leads the league in Metres Gained and is phenomenal at securing the high-ball and counter-attacking, they struggle when they can’t get go-forward and are constantly pinned back.
Exeter have made 5 changes for this week’s away clash. Cowan-Dickie and Nixon are out of the matchday 23 with Yeandle and Iosefa-Scott filling in respectively. Sam Skinner drops to the bench and Scottish international Jonny Gray returns to partner Jonny Hill in a formidable lock duo. In the backline, Ian Whitten starts ahead of Devoto, bringing defensive resilience and a wealth of experience, whilst Facundo Cordero’s flamboyant attacking abilities are preferred to O’Flaherty’s metronomic finishing skills.
Six of Harlequins and Exeter’s last seven games have finished with a two point margin or less. Needless to say then, that this game will be typically close. However, we feel that the margins may be a bit bigger this time, with the absence of key front-rowers for Exeter giving Harlequins a slight edge on paper. Whilst the scars of the not so distant past will certainly make this an emotionally fuelled performance, the combination of home advantage, recent form and playing style have us picking Quins to win by +5.
Prediction: Harlequins 31 - 26 Exeter Chiefs
NEWCASTLE FALCONS vs NORTHAMPTON SAINTS
Saturday 8th January
Kingston Park
15:00
The Falcons will be looking to improve upon their stellar home record in the Premiership this season as they face an out of form Northampton side. Dean Richards’ side have only lost one home game all season, what also bodes well for the Falcons is that they have won 7 out of their last 8 contests against the Saints. Northampton enter this fixture having lost their last 4 matches in all competitions.
The Falcons haven’t won a Premiership game since their trip down to Sandy Park in early November, and after being held scoreless by Leicester last week, Dean Richards will be looking for a big response from his side. For this clash, the Falcons welcome back a number of key figures and have made four changes from last week’s starting side. In the front row, Kyle Cooper is promoted from the bench to start at loosehead, he’s joined by the returning George McGuigan who starts in his familiar 2 jersey. Elsewhere in the pack, England international Callum Chick replaces Carl Fearns at number 8. As the lone change in the backline, Tom Penny replaces Adam Radwan, who is in isolation, on the wing. One more notable change is that England hooker Jamie Blamire returns on the bench, he hasn’t played since England’s win over South Africa in the autumn.
Whilst the Falcons haven’t been on the ball in recent weeks, this game feels like a big chance to reset and build upon going forward. There’s a reason why the Falcons have only lost one home game all season, it’s because they are able to force teams into playing their style. The weather and travel are certainly contributing factors, and they harness those factors when teams visit. Newcastle’s defensive resilience is what the Falcons build their game on, and that level of resilience rises significantly at Kingston Park. For this week, they face a side that will be looking to play expansive rugby no matter the conditions. With Mitchell and Biggar looking to push the pace, Dean Richards will know that his side must slow ruck ball down and dominate the collision area to not allow that front foot ball for the Saints. In attack, expect lots of precision box kicking from Louis Schreuder and for the Falcons to lean heavily on their set-piece as an attacking weapon.
After Northampton’s bright start to the season, the Saints haven’t quite been at the races over the past few weeks. Having lost three of their last five Premiership fixtures, Chris Boyd’s side would love to finish the Christmas period off with a win before returning to Champions Cup action next weekend.
The Saints have made five changes to the starting XV from last week. In the pack, in behind an unchanged front row, club stalwart David Ribbans returns to start at lock partnering Api Ratuniyarawa. In the back row, Courtney Lawes and Juarno Augustus are big omissions from this game, they are replaced by Tom Wood and Teimana Harrison respectively. The two changes in the backline are the return of Tom Collins to the wing and Fraser Dingwall replacing the injured Piers Francis at centre.
Northampton’s style of play is to keep ball in hand attack with lots of moving pieces. What is vital to that style of play is quick ruck speed and excellent distribution skills. With Mitchell and Biggar’s world-class ability to distribute and orchestrate attacking sets, the Saints attacking plan hinges on getting quick ball. We’ve seen in games this year against sides like Sale and Saracens that the Saints struggle. It’s because both of those teams are great at slowing ruck ball down and maintaining a suffocating linespeed, turning the contest into an arm wrestle. Newcastle play a very similar style. So, the challenge this week will be for Northampton to find a way to break down that robust Newcastle defence without the quick ball they’re used to against other sides.
As most games involving Newcastle are, especially ones at Kingston Park, this game is going to a low scoring, physical affair with both sides looking to win the territorial battle and force mistakes out of one another. The omissions of Lawes and Augustus for the Saints is massive in this game. For a matchup that will mostly played out in the tight, those two players are a big loss for Chris Boyd’s side. With that in mind and the return of McGuigan, Chick and Blamire for the Falcons, I think they’ll have just enough to edge the Saints and improve on their excellent record in this matchup.
Prediction: Newcastle Falcons 21 - 18 Northampton Saints
SARACENS vs GLOUCESTER
Saturday 8th January
StoneX Stadium
15:00
Saracens versus Gloucester will be a clash of minimal margins, where defence will take centre stage and physicality will be the word of the day. Saracens have built a dynasty on percentage rugby and Mark McCall has returned to the Premiership without missing a beat, the key to their success being a meticulously thought-out and executed plan of territorial pressure. Gloucester have surprised many this season, with Skivington’s men boasting one of the most attritional and hard-working defences in the league. Spearheaded by Captain Ludlow, the Cherry & Whites have ditched the ‘joue’ playing style of the Cipriani era and have welcomed an abrasive territorial style of their own. Hastings has been able to pull the strings off the back of a pack that gets forward and dominates in the set-piece. Needless to say, this will be a game where playing styles will match up perfectly, and the question is: who will be more physical and urgent throughout the 80?
Saracens are coming off a clinical performance against Northampton, keeping the Saints to zero second half points in typical Sarries fashion. This week’s challenge is far more complex, with the Cherry & Whites possessing one of the most tireless defences and the most lethal Rolling Maul in the Premiership. The combination of the West Country men’s mix between physicality up front and excellent game management in the backs, makes Gloucster one of the tougher fixtures in the Premiership at the moment. Nonetheless, Saracens are the masters of this style of play and will be looking to take Skivington to school with the playing style they themselves brought to the fore.
Whilst the game plan stays the same, the personnel sees 6 changes for this week’s clash. Vincent Koch returns to pair Jamie Goerge and Mako Vunipola, in what is the most mobile and powerful front-row in the Prem. Isiekwe shifts to blindside flanker, with McFarland replaced by Tim Swinson in the second row. Lastly, Andy Christie starts at number 8 ahead of Billy Vunipola. In the backline, Ivan Van Zyl starts at halfback, with Morris and Segun wearing the 12 and 14 jersey’s ahead of Tompkins and Maitland respectively.
Gloucester succumbed to a narrow defeat at the hands of the reigning Champs Harlequins last week, but their spirits are still high knowing that they are in a great position to mount a serious top 4 bid. Skivington has made 5 changes from last week, opting to bring a more defensive minded backline and forced to make a few tweaks. Alex Seville replaces the in-form Val Rapava-Ruskin in the only change to the forward pack. Whilst in the backs, Charlie Chapman is preferred to Ben Meehan, who reverts to the bench. Mark Atkinson returns to the 12 jersey with Twelvetrees dropping to the bench. The veteran inside centre who recently was called up to the England squad for the first time, is a crucial centrepiece to Gloucester’s attack and defence - he is a welcomed addition. May takes over from Thorley on the right wing and Santiago Carreras is preferred over Louis Rees-Zammit on the left, the latter dropping to the number 23 jersey.
Gloucester have the cards to give Saracens serious troubles and they will be yearning for a big scalp. Their tight five is industrious and the power and tackling relentlessness provided by their backrow is hardly matched. This team is full of intent and that is the route to winning this game, they’ll have to dominate collisions and get over the gainline frequently, to harm Saracens with their own medicine.
Prediction: Saracens 24 - 17 Gloucester
BATH RUGBY vs WORCESTER WARRIORS
Sunday 9th January
The Rec
15:00
It’s been the opening to all of our Bath previews over the last 10 weeks but it still holds true, Bath are still searching for that coveted first win of the Premiership season. Many think that this week will be the best chance for Bath to break their duck as they face 12th place Worcester Warriors, a side that hasn’t won away from home all season. The men from the South West will be desperate to get the monkey off their back and win their 5th straight game against the Warriors.
Everyone is aware of Bath’s major struggles this season, they rank in the bottom three for almost every defensive statistic and have conceded 40+ points in 4 games this season. Just as it looked like they were turning a corner with a resilient performance against Exeter in Round 9, they have since been sent crashing back down to earth by Northampton and Gloucester. But, as the old adage goes, Bath will take it game by game and this is another opportunity to show some fight in front of the Bath faithful, who are desperate for their side to relieve them of the winless burden.
For this week, Bath have made a host of changes from their last Premiership outing against Gloucester. Tom Doughty gets his first start at hooker with Tom Dunn unavailable. The rest of the tight five remains the same, but two changes in the back row sees Ewan Richards and Josh Bayliss start at openside and number 8 respectively, with Sam Underhill and Mike Williams injured. In the backline, Ollie Fox starts at scrum-half with Ben Spencer out injured whilst Will Muir returns from his suspension to start on the wing.
Whilst sides on a losing run can dive deep into the tactical aspect of their game and focus and matchups and statistics, this week shouldn’t be over complicated. It’s simply about how much Bath want to fight for this win. Worcester have been vulnerable defensively, but if they’re given opportunities in attack they will punish you, particularly if they are winning the battle at the ruck. If Bath replicate their Round 9 performance against Exeter, I have little doubt that they will win this game. They showed unbelievable scramble in defence, paired with a suffocating linespeed and a will to get to every loose ball. Against a Worcester side that don’t have the level of ball retention that the Chiefs showed in that game, they’ll find major success if they can match those efforts.
After having the bye last week, Worcester have had two weeks to focus on this clash and forget about their heavy loss to Saracens a fortnight ago. The break has also given some of the Warriors squad the rest they needed to get over some small niggles. With that in mind, Jonathan Thomas welcomes back a number of big names into the side this week. The front row is replaced entirely from the game against Sarries with British and Irish Lion Rory Sutherland returning at loosehead, with Niall Annett and Christian Judge aside him. Matt Kvesic returns from injury to start at number 8, he’s favoured over Sione Vailanu who moves to the bench. Outside of the pack, Gareth Simpson starts at scrum-half after his impressive stint off the bench against Saracens. The only other change to the backline is that Perry Humphreys returns to start on the wing.
Against a Bath side more motivated than ever, Worcester are going to have to up their levels if they want to snap their 15 game losing streak at the Rec. The talent is there in the Worcester side to win this game, it’s going to come down to defensive resilience and discipline. If the Warriors don’t allow Bath into this game with easy red zone entries through penalties and force them to create attacking chances from open play, they’ll go a long way to winning this game. Ashley Beck and Francois Venter will have a big task defending the midfield against Ojomoh and Joseph and I’m expecting Bath to do a lot of attacking in that channel. However, Beck and Venter are two excellent defensive centres, some of the most underrated in the Premiership in my opinion and I think they can contain that threat enough to limit Bath’s attack in that area.
Whilst this is a clash between the two bottom teams in the Premiership, it’s one of the most important games of the season for both sides. Bath will feel this is their best chance to finally snap their winless streak and continue on with their rebuild, whilst Worcester will be desperate to prove that with their big names available, they can move above battling out for last place. In a very tight game, I think those big names for Worcester will win the key moments and once again make Bath wait for their first win of the season.
Prediction: Bath Rugby 23 - 27 Worcester Warriors
The ‘Old Rivalry’ in the Midlands
WASPS RUGBY vs LEICESTER TIGERS
Sunday 9th January
CBS Arena
15:00
The Old Rivals meet in Coventry where Wasps will hope to end Leicester Tigers 16 game unbeaten run dating back to when they beat Wasps in June last year. Wasps have won just one game in their last five and they’ve been a team struck by injury and covid struggles throughout the season. Despite their personnel struggles, they’ve managed to win 4 games, all of which at the CBS. Their task this week is monumental as they face the undefeated league leaders and old rivals Leicester Tigers. The Tigers are cruising and need no introduction this season. Borthwick has restored the club’s powerhouse status of old and few expect their unbeaten run to end here against their most famous rivals.
Wasps have struggled to generate momentum this season. Their boxing day victory against London Irish was backed up with an away loss to Sale and they haven’t been able to register back to back victories at any point this season. Whilst Leicester will obviously be a great challenge, this game has emotional factors involved and Lee Blackett will be expecting his men to feed off the energy that an upset against Tigers could do for the club. To beat the Tigers, discipline and ball retention will be key. The continued absence of Dan Robson has harmed the game-management abilities of Wasps, and despite having an abundance of big ball-carriers, they’ve struggled to turn their endeavours into wins. Five of their seven losses have been decided by 6 points or less.
This week, Lee Blackett has opted for four changes to the starting XV. They welcome back Cruse and Toomaga-Allen to the front row and Tom Willis also returns to the starting lineup. With Launchbury and Jack Willis still missing, this forward pack has still been largely effective and will need to continue its strong offensive and defensive exploits. Young Charlie Atkinson gets his first start of the season in the only change to the backline from last week.
Leicester Tigers are looking to equal Newcastle Falcons 1997/98 record start to the season with a win against Wasps. Borthwick’s side has been phenomenally lucid and despite regular squad rotations, their intensity has never wavered. Borthwick has made just 2 changes and whilst this is an understrength Tigers side, it can’t be viewed as such - a testament to their squad depth. Chessum starts at number 8 with George Martin dropping out of the matchday 23 altogether. Young Jack Van Poortvliet starts with Ben Youngs selected as closer for this fixture. Club Captain Ellis Genge will also feature for his 100th Tigers appearance.
Leicester’s success has been built around their Kevin Sinfield devised defence. They have conceded the fewest points in the Premiership, repelling teams even from the closest range for a large number of phases. Wasps have been one of the most prolific teams, converting their opportunities very efficiently this season, and thus Leicester’s resilient defence will need to be called into question once again.
Despite the romanticism that there might be in a passionate Wasps upset to end their old rivals losing streak, it seems that the realism in this matchup will cast all doubts aside by the end of the 80. Tigers have been clinical and their mentality has not wavered throughout their campaign regardless of team selections. Wasps will put up a fight because they have a strong pack and will always make it tough at the CBS, but they won’t be ending Tigers’ historic streak this week.
Prediction: Wasps 19 - 30 Leicester