Round 3: Matchday Preview
BRISTOL BEARS VS BATH RUGBY
Friday 1st October
Ashton Gate
19:45
Bristol and Bath have both lost their two opening games. Whilst the season is long, losing three in a row for either team will set some degree of alarm bells ringing.
Bristol’s losses showed their weakness when they struggle to get go-forward and clean ruck ball. Saracens and Wasps both beat the Bears by defending aggressively and targeting the breakdown, to the point where Bristol began making uncharacteristic errors. Pat Lam has swung the axe making 8 changes and will definitely have emphasized the need for Ball Carriers with a capital B. The pack welcomes back Kyle Sinckler from the mandatory rest period for Lions players. Will Capon replaces the injured Harry Thacker, Ed Holmes and Joe Joyce form an all new second row pushing Chris Vui to the blindside, Luatua to no. 8 and Jake Heenan joins the back row at openside. In the backs Sam Bedlow and Henry Purdy get their first starts of the season at 12 and 11 respectively.
This week both sides have similar weaknesses and it will come down to who executes better in attack and who’s defence has better line speed. Bristol will try to get back to their running rugby, but first they will have to lay the foundations to do so, something they haven’t been able to do in rounds 1 and 2. Despite the 44 points conceded last week, Bristol’s defence has not been problematic, it has been their turnovers and unusually ineffective attack that has been the main issue in their losses. Lam’s game plan will be simple, reduce the errors, carry over the gain line, get quick ruck ball and let their strike weapons play their usual running Rugby from all over the park.
Bath’s issues in attack have been similar to Bristol’s. Last week Stuart Hooper’s men never managed to cut down Newastle’s early lead as they made an enormous number of forced and unforced errors because of the Falcons' defence. Their unforced errors have led to a frantic attack that lacks the precision necessary for success in the Premiership. Bath’s task this week will be to improve their ball retention and defensive resilience. The return of Sam Underhill after his early injury in the Falcons game will help provide ruck security and turnovers. The tight five features wholesale changes, Obano returns to the loosehead with Jacques Du Toit and Will Stuart completing the front row. Josh McNally and Tom Ellis are the last of five changes by Hooper from last week’s starting XV. Lions and England International Anthony Watson also makes his way back into the 23 from the bench.
Bristol and Bath both have the personnel to win many games, but it has been their execution that has let them down. Both will be looking to get their first win for their season, and they will go back to the basics to get the result. The key to this game will be limiting turnovers as both teams thrive in counter-attacking opportunities. The team which will have gotten their house in order soonest will win this game. I think Bath’s pack will challenge Bristol, but a simple game plan by Pat Lam to get the basics right should mean that they edge it.
Prediction: Bristol 23 - 20 Bath
NORTHAMPTON SAINTS VS LONDON IRISH
Saturday 2nd October
Franklins Gardens
14:00
Not many would’ve expected Northampton to start the season with two wins from two, but Chris Boyd has this team firing on all cylinders with George Furbank running the show. This week, the Saints will look to win three games on the bounce to start the season as they did in the 2019/2020 season. They host London Irish who come into this fixture off the back of an early ‘Game of the Season’ contender in their draw to Sale, but a side who are still searching for their first victory of the season.
This week Northampton welcome back their big guns. Dan Biggar makes his return as he replaces Grayson in the number 10 jersey and Courtney Lawes features on the bench after his impressive British and Irish Lions tour. Juarno Augustus gets his first start in the green and black jersey after his imposing cameos off the bench in the first two weeks. The Saints defence has been excellent this season. This will need to continue against an attack focused London Irish side. Wood and Ludlam will once again need to lead the defensive line to stop the Exiles from getting quick ball to play off. If the Saints can replicate their 93% tackle success rate from last week, it will go a long way in winning this game. Northampton’s maul defence will also need to be excellent, as it was last week, to stifle Irish’s likely maul attacks in the rain. With a 6/2 split on the bench, Chris Boyd is preparing for an attritional battle. The Saints will look to deploy Lawes and Harrison late in the game to punch holes through a tired Exiles defence. We’ve seen George Furbank’s ability to tear defences apart this season when the Saints get quick ball, I expect more of the same against a defensively weak Exiles side.
London Irish’s second-half heroics of last week give them momentum coming into this game, the Exiles stormed back from a 17 point half-time deficit to rescue a draw in their home opener. Irish have also adopted a 6/2 bench split in preparation for this forwards dominated encounter. This fixture will be a tougher test for London Irish and with predicted heavy rain, they will need to adjust their game plan in order to come out on top. Declan Kidney has built this side to thrive off front foot ball, giving their backs room to operate. We saw in the second half last week that when their attack clicks, they can be very dangerous. But in the expected conditions, the Exiles will need to adapt, attempting to shift the ball wide and break through this strong Saints defensive line plays right into Northampton’s hands. Instead, they will be calling on their forward pack to do what they did so well in that second half last week, win collisions and attack the opposition set-piece. It will be a mighty task, but if the forwards can assert some dominance and Paddy Jackson can fix his goal kicking woes from last week, they might just have a chance.
Based on what Northampton have shown us in their first two games, I can’t tip against them. This game will be decided between the battle of the forward packs. With the predicted heavy rain, Northampton will have the stronger power game up front and look to suffocate this London Irish side from playing their free-flowing rugby. Biggar will pull the strings in behind and pick apart a vulnerable Exiles defence, don’t be surprised if we see a couple of 50/22’s from him. The Saints will force London Irish into errors and disrupt their attacking flow to win this game in front of their home crowd, Northampton could very well be top of the table after round 3.
Prediction: Northampton 26 - 16 London Irish
NEWCASTLE FALCONS VS WASPS
Saturday 2nd October
Kingston Park
15:00
This is a ‘clash of styles’ matchup, both sides are looking to win back to back games after their notable wins in round 2.
After having the bye in round 1, Wasps came flying out of the gate last week in their unexpected 44-8 thrashing of Bristol. Lee Blackett’s side were able to capitalise to full effect on unforced Bristol errors on their way to scoring 6 tries. Whilst the scoreline was impressive, it was somewhat flattering. Whilst they didn’t need to create loads in attack last week, it will be a different story this week. Wasps will need to show that they can break down this strong Newcastle defence, and against a side who build their game on limiting errors and playing in the right areas, it won’t be easy. On the defensive side, they were exceptional last week, they will need to retain their outstanding line speed and force Newcastle into mistakes in their own territory. Jimmy Gopperth and Sam Spink are the only changes to the starting line-up, Gopperth will employ his quality kicking skills from 12 to pin back Newcastle when given the chance.
Nathan Earle makes his debut on the left-wing for the Falcons, the 27-year-old will look to make an instant impact by creating inroads in the Waps defence with his powerful ball carrying skills. The path to victory in this matchup is one the Falcons are familiar with. We know Newcastle are not going to throw the ball around and look to score off every phase, but they are dangerous in a different way. You know what you’re gonna get from the Falcons; A strong set-piece, Few unforced errors and a good kicking game. This may sound simple but when it’s built on strong defence, it can frustrate many teams. The Falcons will look to take their opportunities in attack, there is no doubt they will continue to punish Wasps with 3 points whenever they get the chance.
With rain expected across England, this game is set up to be a cagey affair. Newcastle is certainly not an easy place to travel and I think the Falcons will be able to mirror their efforts last week by limiting their errors, kicking to the corners of the field and forcing Wasps into mistakes. Whilst Wasps are certainly a much better side than Bath, I’m not convinced they have enough attacking prowess to break down a resilient Falcons defence given the expected weather conditions.
Prediction: Newcastle Falcons 17 - 16 Wasps
LEICESTER TIGERS VS SARACENS
Saturday 2nd October
Welford Road
15:00
This is a battle of the heavyweights. Despite Saracens only playing one game, these two already feel like the form teams of the Premiership.
Leicester have made a host of changes from last week's victory over Gloucester. Ellis Genge, Harry Wells, Jack Van Poortvliet and Freddie Steward all move to the bench. Freddie Burns surprisingly starts at fullback for the Tigers with electric offseason signing Hosea Saumaki starting on the left-wing in place of Nemani Nadolo. Even with these changes, Leicester will fancy their chances, especially in front of a noisy home crowd. Leicester have been seriously impressive in their opening two games, Steve Borthwick has completely turned this club around since he joined the club. It’s clear that the Tigers have regained their identity and in doing so have become a genuine title contender. The key for Leicester in this game will be competing with the Saracens pack. If they manage to establish gainline dominance, Youngs and Ford can start to have a real attacking influence on the game and unleash the backs outside of them.
Saracens are a machine. After spending a year out of the Premiership, they opened their season with a win against Bristol. Even without several key players, they still looked like the Saracens of old. The ability to shut down any attacking threat with their incredible line speed is scary. It is a trait that only the best sides can consistently show. Mark McCall is one of the great tactical minds in World Rugby and with the week off to prepare, he no doubt would’ve drilled into his side exactly what they need to win this game. The five-time champions welcome back some huge names; Owen Farrell, Jamie George and Max Malins all return to the starting lineup. No surprise that this is a team still filled with international talent along with world-class coaching, they are a nightmare for any side to beat.
With Saracens getting their British and Irish Lions back and Leicester resting a number of key figures, I think they will sneak home with a win. We know that they have the ability to make teams play at their pace, they will be able to match Leicester’s power up front and certainly have the defensive ability in the wide channels to limit linebreaks for the Tigers. For me, this is the most anticipated matchup of the ‘young’ season so far.
Prediction: Leicester Tigers 22- 26 Saracens
WORCESTER WARRIORS VS GLOUCESTER
Saturday 2nd October
Sixways
15:00
Worcester host Gloucester at Sixways in what will be an entertaining derby. The hosts will look to make Sixways a fortress, whilst the visitors are still searching for their first win of the season. In what could be a high-scoring affair both teams have similar attributes and momentum swings will likely have a large effect on the game. The half-back pairings will have an enormous say in who takes the spoils and they both boast experienced 9s and talented 10s.
In just two games, a win and a loss, Worcester have shown that they are going to be a thorny side this season. Their attack has benefited from the control and fluidity by their all new halfback pairing. Willi Heinz threatens around the ruck, provides up-tempo service and has a very polished kicking game. Owen Williams has been similarly brilliant yet in a quieter role allowing the potent pairing of Venter and Lawrence to flourish outside. Worcester will be expecting to make Sixways a fortress and they have all the cards to do so this weekend.
Worcester have made a few tweaks with Melani Nanai starting over Perry Humphreys in an otherwise unchanged backline. In the pack, Matt Garvey starts and Hatherell is pushed to the bench.
Gloucester were much improved in their loss to Leicester last week compared to their opening loss to Northampton. Nonetheless, they have lost both their opening games and this already feels like a must-win game for the Cherry & Whites to get their season underway. Their ball-carriers showed that they can be dominant in patches last week and Ben Meehan has controlled the tempo well when they are on the front foot. Their issue has been the infrequency of their go-forward and their glaring defensive issues. If they don’t sort both out they will struggle to feed their backs and concede far too many points to give themselves a chance.
Skivington will know that the key to this game will be in the battle up-front as both teams have the skillset and finishers to give the fans a high-scoring display.
Gloucester do welcome back some fire-power in the backs with Jason Woodward making his first start for the season and Jonny May is back from a niggle picked up in the first game. Adam Hastings is finally promoted to the starting lineup after joining the match from the bench in the first 2 rounds. In the pack, Kirill Gotovtsev starts at tighthead and Freddie Clarke in the second row in the place of Fraser Balmain and Ed Slater respectively.
This game can and should be a thriller with both sides fairly even in their packs. I don't see either getting significant ascendancy in terms of go-forward and set-piece dominance. This should lead to a high-scoring affair where momentum will sway frequently. The side that can capitalise on their opportunities will come out on top and for that reason, I think Worcester can win this one at home for their first win of the season. The form of Willi Heinz and Owen Williams should guide this Warriors side to victory, though they will have to outperform the similarly impressive duo of Meehan and Hastings pairing from min 0 for the first time this season.
Prediction: Worcester Warriors 28 - 26 Gloucester
SALE SHARKS VS EXETER CHIEFS
Sunday 3rd October
AJ Bell
15:00
Sale Sharks host the Exeter Chiefs in a rematch of last year's semi-final, albeit without all of the stars that both teams possess. The two sides have not started the season perfectly and will be looking to improve from their respective results from last week.
Sale were ‘a half away’ from starting the season with back-to-back wins. However, London Irish’s second half fightback showed that there are kinks in the Sharks armour. Their depth is really being tested early on in the season. This week they are missing Hammersely, McGuigan, Tuilagi, James, MacGinty, Quirke and Ben Curry from last week’s named lineup. Not to mention their Lions and South African players that are still unavailable. This week they have had to make a host of changes and face an out-of-form, but equally formidable opponent in the Chiefs. Sanderson has mentioned in the week that they owe Chiefs one back after their semi-final loss at the hands of Exeter. The game plan for Sanderson, despite the changes, will be the same. Hard-graft in the pack to try and bully Exeter’s pack up-front.
Exeter have similarly missed a large chunk of their stars, but welcome back a number of household names. Hogg returns at fullback after serving the mandatory Lions rest period. In the forwards, Ewers and Capstick replace Kirsten and Tuima at 6 and 8 respectively. Another notable change is Joe Simmonds being dropped to the bench after an unimpressive start to the season and the young Harvey Skinner gets an early chance to continue his late-season form.
Exeter will be looking to get their first win of the season, in the last 10 years the Chiefs have never started a season with 3 losses in a row. Rob Baxter mentioned that he has been happy with his youngsters but expects far more from his seasoned players. The biggest issue for Exeter in their two opening games has simply been one on one defence, last week the Chiefs recorded an 80% tackle success rate which was the second worst of any team. For a side that has built its European and Domestic success on defence, it has been unusual to see them struggle so much. They have been inaccurate to start the season and so Baxter will surely be going back to the fundamentals, looking to improve their one-on-one defense which has been subpar so far, and fix their maul in both attack and defense.
Sale is fielding a severely understrength side, yet they should not be underestimated as they do still have quality players across the park. Nonetheless, Exeter have the pack to match up with the Sharks big boys and Baxter will get his side to return to the basics, reduce the errors and return to their ‘choking’ style that is so difficult to deal with. I fear that Sale has been forced into making too many changes and we may well see another late fade in what will certainly be a physical battle.
Prediction: Sale Sharks 15 - 28 Exeter Chiefs
The West Country Derby at Ashton Gate!
Saints vs Exiles at the Gardens
The Flying Falcons take on the Buzzing Wasps!
