Round 4: Matchday Preview
HARLEQUINS VS BRISTOL BEARS
Friday 8th October
Twickenham Stoop
19:45
The Twickenham Stoop will be hosting a rematch of what was undoubtedly the greatest comeback in Premiership history - emotion will be high for both teams. The Londoners have opened up the season with 2 wins from 2 and come into this key matchup fresh off of their bye week. Bristol have not opened up the season well but will be travelling to the Stoop with their first win under their belt against their west country rivals, Bath, last week.
Harlequins’ only change to the matchday 23 from their win against Worcester a fortnight ago is the return of the Thriller from Manila Marcus Smith in the 22 jersey. It will be interesting to see how much time on the pitch last season’s top point scorer Smith will get in his first game back after his maiden England Cap and Lions tour this summer. Nonetheless, as we have seen in the opening 2 rounds Quins’ style has been no different with or without Smith, with Tommy Allan filling his boots comfortably.
Quins will be looking to go 3 and 0 and they will be doing so in their typical flamboyant style. Bristol’s weaknesses have been evident in the last 2 weeks and Quins will be looking to generate fast-paced momentum through their ball-carriers - Symons, Dombrandt and Esterhuizen are key to their front-foot ball. On the other side of the ball, Quins have really started to hone in on their defence being their first point of attack. Trying to defend for short periods of time and looking to aggressively create turnover ball from which they are lethal. Kenningham has had an exceptional rise to prominence and his ability to dominate the breakdown will be crucial to Quins’ success. In the last few weeks we have seen that Bristol have been slow in their ruck retention and if Kenningham & Co can target the ruck for turnover ball Quins’ backline will have lots of try-scoring opportunities.
The Bears have started the season sluggish, but as Pat Lam has wisely mentioned, there is a lot of Rugby still to be played. Bristol’s win last week against Bath last week was an unconvincing but important milestone to get the monkey off their backs. They need to get more go-forward and improve their ruck retention to be able to play their expansive Rugby. Last week Lam added Heenan to the starting 15 and his impact was noticed, this week he has doubled down adding Fitz Harding, another openside to the mix to improve their mobility in the loose and at the breakdown. Harding at 6 pushes Vui into lock and Ed Holmes drops back to the bench. The last change to the pack being the inclusion of Jake Kerr to the starting lineup after his barnstorming display last week and Harry Thacker is welcomed back on the bench. In the backs Ioan Lloyd drops to the bench as Niyi Adolokun is plugged back into the 14 jersey.
Bristol will be looking to their more experienced players to execute the fundamentals well and lay the platform for their attack to flourish. If they don’t secure their ruck ball and do not get go-forward in the tight, they are going to be in for a rough afternoon against a Quins side that has looked polished since starting the season. However, if the Bears execute the basics smoothly and starve Harlequins of possession, we all know how good this side can be.
Overall, Bristol have been really unconvincing in the last 3 weeks. The inclusion of Harding is a clear indication that Lam wants his pack to be more mobile and effective at the ruck. They desperately need a solid platform to play the flamboyant rugby they are renowned for. Harlequins, in the last 9 months, have seemed to master the balance needed between careful game management and playing what’s in front of them. Their pack is as skillful as they come and yet they still have a grit to them. If they can challenge at the breakdown and stop any Bristol momentum, this game is theirs for the taking.
Prediction: Harlequins 37 - 31 Bristol
EXETER CHIEFS VS WORCESTER WARRIORS
Saturday 9th October
Sandy Park
15:00
Well, who would have guessed that after three rounds the Warriors would be sitting in 5th with the Chiefs all the way down in 10th? Nevertheless, last week’s performances paint a different picture of these two sides' trajectories this season.
Exeter finally opened their win account with an impressive performance against Sale last weekend. Whilst nobody would’ve tipped the Chiefs to be 10th on the ladder after three rounds, last week proved that when they start reintroducing their ‘big name’ players, they are still one of the top dogs. With Rob Baxter’s men still looking to record their first home win of the new season, they will be heavily motivated to put in a similar performance to last week. The biggest issue for Exeter in the first two rounds was individual defence, with an 82% and 80% tackle success in Rounds 1 and 2 respectively. With defensive frailty being the main issue, Baxter has returned to a ball in hand gameplan in which Exeter starved Sale of possession. The Chiefs managed to go phase after phase without giving up the ball against a strong Sale defence. Eventually, this plan would reap the rewards as the big Sharks forwards wore tired, leaving holes in the defence for Slade and Hogg to exploit.
If the ball retention is similar to last week, the Chiefs will have no problem winning this contest. With Luke Cowan-Dickie, Jonny Hill and Sam Simmonds rejoining the likes of Ewers and Capstick in the pack, this team has more than enough power to create constant gainline success that will overpower Worcester’s defence. They’ll also revert to their attacking maul whenever possible. We saw Worcester’s difficulty to defend the maul last week, and if Exeter can do something similar, the Warriors will be pinned on their goal line for long periods of this game once again. If their performance last week didn’t convince you that Exeter were still one of the best in the Premiership, the return of Luke Cowan-Dickie, Jonny Hill and Sam Simmonds back into the starting line-up certainly will. The reintroduction of the three British and Irish Lions give the Chiefs some almighty firepower in their hunt for their first home win of the season.
Worcester have had a mixed start to the season. After winning their opener, the Warriors have lost two games in a row at the hands of Harlequins (A) and Gloucester (H). The positive will be that in both these losses they kept it close, losing by only 6 and 8 points respectively. The biggest fix from last week for Jonathan Thomas’ side will be the maul defence as Worcester weren’t able to stop the Gloucester maul all game long. We know that Exeter pride themselves on playing that style of game, so if they haven’t rectified this issue, it’s going to be another long afternoon for the Warriors. This would be an almighty upset if the Warriors were to pull it off, but to do so, they must reduce their error and penalty count. If Worcester can avoid giving Exeter free ball, they have a chance, particularly if the Chiefs haven’t sured up their individual defence in the wide channels. The inclusion of British and Irish Lion Duhan Van Der Merwe into the side is a huge boost for the Warriors, he’ll be looking to make an instant impact off the back of his impressive summer. Fellow B&I Lion Rory Sutherland also makes his debut for the Warriors, the loosehead prop will look to give the Warriors immediate ascendency in the scrum as well sure up their maul defence. A Warriors win would no doubt be the biggest upset of the young season, but you never know what this league has in store for us!
Exeter’s performance last week has reinvigorated my confidence in them. The Warriors are the weakest side the Chiefs will have faced in the young season and with a home crowd in front of them, Rob Baxter’s side won’t be happy with anything less than a bonus-point victory.
I can’t see Worcester fixing their maul defence within the space of a week. That, along with the return of Exeter’s British and Irish Lions in the forward pack is why I’m predicting a comfortable Exeter win.
Prediction: Exeter 36 - 15 Worcester
SARACENS VS NEWCASTLE FALCONS
Saturday 8th October
StoneX Stadium
15:00
Saracens run out at the newly named StoneX Stadium for the first time since June 2020. Sarries come into this game after being pipped at the death by a valiant Leicester side. Nonetheless, all viewers will know that the men in red & black have demonstrated in both their outings this season, that they are the well-oiled machine of old. They add a few more superstars to the fold this week and are going to prove unwelcoming hosts for the visitors. Newcastle come into this game in hot form with two impressive wins on the bounce. Falcons have been playing with a ‘Saracens-lite' gameplan in their two wins, complementing a secure and error-free attack with a stone-wall aggressive defence. They started in a similar way last season and will be looking to prolongate their form this year, especially with their new recruits providing experience and attacking prowess in abundance. Nonetheless, outmuscling Saracens is a monumental task and Falcons have found away wins difficult to come by.
Saracens have made four changes from last week. The return of British & Irish Lion Mako Vunipola is the headline addition at loosehead. Callum Hunter-Hill joins the starting lineup at lock moving Nick Isiekwe at 6 to replace Jackson Wray. Their pack was dominant against Bristol in week one and was dominant for large parts of last week’s game against Leicester. The addition of Mako makes this side almost at full complement and they will be difficult to stop.
In the backs, Sean Maitland is back on the left wing and Dom Morris starts at 13 pushing Alex Lozowski to inside centre and Nick Tompkins to the bench. The Springbok Ivan Van Zyl also could make his Sarries debut off the bench. McCall’s game plan will be no different from the usual, predictably deploying Saracens’ ‘percentages’ game. Davies, Farrell and Lozowski will paint the corners as their defence will look to suffocate Newcastle and really test the northerner’s ability to create something from their own half.
Dean Richards will be chuffed with the last fortnight for the Falcons, and they will be looking to extend their win streak to three as they did at the start of last year. They will be coming down to London oozing with confidence from their wins and with the addition of experienced Mike Brown for his Falcons debut. Newcastle will be looking to take on Saracens up front and win the physical battle. In the tight-five Mark Tampin and Phillip Van der Walt are replaced by Trevor Davison and Sean Robinson respectively. They together with the impressive McGuigan, Brocklebank and Fuser will look to make Saracens earn their stripes at the set-piece and in the tight. In the back row, Gary Graham joins Will Welch and Callum Chick, pushing Carl Fearns out of the 23 altogether. The back row was great last week at providing go-forward in the tight and connectivity in the loose. They will need more of the same to trouble the Saracens pack. In the backs, aside from Brown’s debut, Connon starts ahead of Haydon-Wood in the only other change from last week. Louis Schreuder’s box kicking game has been exceptional and he will be looking to put contestable kicks for Earle, Radwan and Brown to challenge.
This game is going to be attritional. Both teams will be looking to dominate up-front, make few mistakes, and play in the right areas of the field. Saracens are the masters of this gameplan, however, Newcastle have done an excellent imitation, and lately, their finishers have seized opportunities fully.
Nonetheless, I can’t see the Saracens pack going backwards and the kicking prowess of Farrell will make life very difficult for the visitors. Not to mention that Saracens have their own finishers to seize opportunities.
Prediction: Saracens 25 - 10 Newcastle
GLOUCESTER RUGBY VS SALE SHARKS
Saturday 8th October
Kingsholm
15:00
Gloucester and Sale meet with both sides looking to avoid dropping to a 1-3 record on the season. The Cherry and Whites will look to win their first home game of the season in front of a full Kingsholm whilst Sale will be itching to avenge last week’s defeat.
Adam Hastings got his first start for the Cherry & Whites and they won their first game of the season, Coincidence? I don’t think so. The Scotland international put in an outstanding performance to get Gloucester up and running for the season. Last week’s performance as a team was also a big improvement on their first two rounds. Whilst they only won by 8 points, the Cherry and Whites dominated from start to finish. We’ve typically been used to, over recent seasons, Gloucester showing all-out attacking flair but being vulnerable in defence. However, last week told a different story. The balance they found between their forwards dominating up front and allowing Hastings to unleash the threats outside of him was excellent. If they can find this balance week in week out and adapt it slightly for each opponent, they’ll beat a lot of teams. This week, it will be imperative to maintain their defensive intensity from last week. Against a Sale side looking to keep this game a ‘forward heavy’ battle, Gloucester need to match them physically.
In their bid to win two on the bounce, the Cherry and Whites get back Louis Rees-Zammit on the wing. The 21-year-old rejoins the squad after touring South Africa with the Lions. The Hastings x Rees-Zammit connection is going to be a special one this year and this will be Gloucester fan’s first look at it. Chris Harris also slots back into the 13 Jersey as Billy Twelvetrees moves to the bench. This week, the key will be not allowing Sale to turn defence into attack. The Sharks will be looking to force errors and win turnovers when Gloucester have the ball. If the Cherry and Whites can retain the ball and replicate their strong power game from last week, they will have an undermanned Sale team for the taking.
Although Sale are still missing a number of their stars, they welcome back the Du Preez brothers into the starting lineup after their ventures with South Africa. Raffi Quirke also slots his back into the starting 9 jersey after missing last week with an injury. Last week’s performance was one to forget for Alex Sanderson’s men, the sending off of Rohan Janse Van Rensburg in the second half summed up their frustrating afternoon. Sale’s defensive resilience to open the game quickly fell away as players started feeling the effects of long periods of the ball in play. We saw the same in the second half of their draw with London Irish, fitness became a real concern and allowed the Exiles back into the game. The key for this week will be to maintain that level of intensity in defence for 80 minutes, the Du Preez brothers will play a huge factor in their bid to do so. With a host of stars missing in the backline, Sale know that they need to keep this contest gritty Their forwards will need to drive Gloucester backwards, slow their ruck ball down and attack the breakdown hard. This game plan is nothing new to the Sharks, in fact it’s what they’re best at. Sale have the ability to frustrate Gloucester and force them into mistakes as they try to run the ball from their own territory. The set-piece battle will also be key, knowing this, Sanderson has given Coenie Oosthuizen his first start of the season. This game will come down to Sale’s ability to hold up defensively. There’s no doubt that they’ll attack the breakdown early to stop Gloucester’s threats in the backline.
This is going to be a close contest, won in the key moments. Ultimately I’m backing Gloucester’s star-studded backline to finish off chances when they’re presented to them. If the Gloucester forwards can match their defensive efforts along with this, they’ll be able to pressure Sale into straying away from their game plan and force them into shifting the ball wide.
Prediction: Gloucester 22 - 19 Sale Sharks
LONDON IRISH VS LEICESTER TIGERS
Saturday 8th October
Brentford Community Stadium
15:00
The Brentford community stadium hosts yet another intriguing battle on Saturday. The Tigers come into this contest off of a huge, yet controversial, win over Saracens last weekend to extend their unbeaten start to the season. London Irish remain one of only two teams yet to record a win this season, they’ll be looking to cause an upset in order to snap that streak.
As aforementioned, London Irish have yet to win a game this season. In order to break their duck, the Exiles have a big mountain to climb. Marcel Van Der Merwe, Steve Mafi and Terrence Hepetema are the three changes to the starting lineup from last week’s loss to Northampton. Last week we saw a surprising lack of variety from Declan Kidney’s side, their attack was far too one-dimensional making it easy for Northampton to defend against. London Irish will no doubt be looking to revert back to their ‘Joue’ style of play and look to stretch this Tigers defence. We saw during their comeback against Sale and in patches last week how effective London Irish are when they have defences on the back foot. To get these defences going backwards, the Exiles need quick and clean ruck ball along with hard forward runners to tie in defenders ready to unleash the backs on the outside. What’s been halting them is their poor discipline, mainly turnover penalties. Leicester have serious threats around the ruck to give them turnover ball, if the Exiles are going to win this game they’ll have to secure their own ball and limit those Leicester turnovers.
The Tigers make 7 changes to their starting lineup from last week’s thrilling win over Saracens. They welcome back a crop of superstars, a real testament to their depth. Julian Montoya and Marco Van Staden also make their long-awaited debuts from the bench after their time in the Rugby Championship. So far this season, the versatility we have seen from Leicester has been seriously impressive. They’ve shown the ability to win games through expansive play and stretching defences, but the Tigers have also won ‘gritty games’, as they showed last week. In this fixture, there is no doubt London Irish are going to look to play at speed and get on the outside of the Tigers defence. Whilst we’ve seen Leicester can defend well against that style of play, the threat is still there. If they don’t manage to slow the Exiles ruck ball down by winning collisions and competing at the breakdown, London Irish have to weapons to score tries quickly. In attack, George Ford will look to continue his excellent form to start the year and pick apart this struggling London Irish defence with the serious power outside of him. In order to do so, he’ll need to forwards to keep doing what they’ve managed in the first three games, win the physical battle. The balance between power and skill in that forward pack is perfect, there’s brutal ball carriers like Genge, Wells and Liebenberg along with skillful link players in Martin and Dolly.
Whilst some crazy things have happened at the Brentford Community Stadium, I can’t see the Exiles upsetting the Tigers. Leicester should have the ascendency at the set-piece and the better ‘power game’. It will allow them to benefit from quick ruck ball in attack but also slow down Irish’s attacking ball. I’m tipping Leicester to go 4 wins from 4 and cement themselves at the top of the table.
Prediction: London Irish 22 - 32 Leicester Tigers
WASPS RUGBY VS NORTHAMPTON SAINTS
Sunday 9th October
Coventry Building Society Arena
15:00
Wasps started the season with an almighty victory over Bristol at home but quickly came crashing back to earth against a tough Newcastle side. Wasps will be looking to right last week's wrongs and win at home again. Northampton are one of the three undefeated teams to start the Premiership and, whilst they have been good, they look like they haven’t even hit top gear yet. This could be a shootout and whilst Wasps are suited to that type of game, Northampton have really gelled into a complete side on both ends of the pitch.
The hosts are back in Coventry with an all-new prop pairing, with Ben Harris and Pieter Scholtz pushing Hislop and Toomaga-Allen to the bench. Gabe Oghre, after his impressive performances at openside, has been selected as bench hooker this week and Thomas Young has been promoted to the 7 jersey. Despite still missing a number of key names this pack has both quality and experience. They’ve been strong at getting over the gainline in the last couple of weeks, but defensively they need to be very sound if they are to trouble Northampton.
Out wide, we know this team has the quality to really sting opposition defences. A slight reshuffle in the back-three sees Kibirige start on the right-wing with Marcus Watson at fullback as Ali Crossdale moves to the bench. Mike Le Bourgeois also reclaims the inside centre spot as veteran Kiwi Jimmy Gopperth provides bench versatility. The style will be no different this week, with Wasps relying heavily on Dan Robson’s skills around the base of the ruck, where he so often puts the dynamic Wasps forwards into half gaps. Whilst it is understandable that Blackett is seeking to bolster the size of the pack to match Saints’ physicality. Frankly, I am surprised to see Oghre move back to the bench, as his ball carrying was very dynamic last week and he has a knack for being everywhere.
The Saints have started this season with a real purpose. They have gone 3/3 and still look like they have a lot more to offer. To open the season they have shown great team chemistry paired with their star players excelling. Chris Boyd has made just two changes from last week’s starting XV. Courtney Lawes is back from his mandatory Lions rest and replaces Tom Wood. Tommy Freeman also gets his first start of the season over Tom Collins on the right-wing.
In terms of gameplan, Northampton have married a big ball-carrying pack with intelligent set moves and backs that cannot wait to punish mismatches. Not to mention their defence, led by Dingwall, Ludlam and Ribbans, which has been exceptional. Biggar adds, to an already highly effective side, a world-class kicking game and game management skills which ensure that this team's efforts are expended in the right areas of the park. Furbank has similarly been exceptional at controlling the game before unleashing players with his vision, speed and skills for remarkable tries.
As in all games, this game will be heavily dictated by which team gets the upper hand in the tight. However, both teams possess the talents outside to score long-range tries without the need for gradual momentum. Beating Wasps at home should not be an easy task for any visitors this season. Nonetheless, I do feel that Northampton’s defence will keep them close in most games and they have the talent to break any team, both physically as well as flamboyantly.
Prediction: Wasps 27 - 29 Northampton
The Bristanbul Rematch at the Stoop!
Saracens’ first home game at the StoneX Stadium!
