Round 5: Matchday Preview
SALE SHARKS vs HARLEQUINS
Friday 15th October
AJ Bell Stadium
19:45
Sale Sharks host an all guns blazing Harlequins side at the AJ Bell in what ought to be a titanic affair. Alex Sanderson has not got off to the best start of the season on paper, but if you read between the lines, a heavily injury afflicted and international-less side has fought valiantly in all of their matches. Last year’s close wins have been exchanged with close losses to start the season and the return of experienced players should help mend those second-half fades.
Harlequins, on the other hand, haven’t missed a beat. They have started this season like they finished last season, accumulating 15 points from 15 available, including last week’s annihilation of Bristol Bears. This team is confident, they will be tough to stop, even at the AJ Bell.
Sale welcome back some big names this week. Tom Curry and Manu Tuilagi slot back into the starting side returning from Lions rest duty and injury respectively. Rodd and Schonert also start in the 1 & 3 Jerseys after coming off the bench against Gloucester. These additions paired with the Du Preez twins make the Sale team an absolute physical menace. If there is one way to beat Quins, it is to stifle their possession and halt their momentum. The Sharks have a team littered with momentum stoppers who will try to keep this clash as physical and close range as possible. With Curry and the Du Preez brothers back, this Sale side can fully return to its identity of old. This game will hinge on how often the Sharks forwards can disrupt Quins quick ball. If the likes of Curry and Ross can find success at the ruck, they’ll be able to somewhat limit Quins’ attacking ball and frustrate the reigning champions. Sale’s biggest work-on from the last couple of weeks will be to reduce their penalty count and play 80 minutes without fading. They have the capability to do it and with home advantage at the AJ Bell, they could get back to winning ways against the reigning champs.
Harlequins have started the season very well, cruising to three from three wins with bonus points in each. The side goes from strength to strength with mercurial 10 Marcus Smith back in the starting side after sparking the comeback from the bench last week, J Chisholm and Northmore also make the move from the bench to the starting side this week. Marchant shifts to the wing with Murley dropping out of the matchday 23 altogether. Harlequins have been excellent on the front foot and Sale will be the toughest defensive side that they’ll have faced this season. They’ll need their ball-carriers to get front foot ball against a strong Sale pack, and equally, need to stop Sale from holding possession and playing in the right areas of the field. With Smith back into the 10 jersey, I expect him to have a few more tricks up his sleeve, bringing a more complete kicking game than his Italian replacement has in the last few weeks. Smith will add to his offensive playmaking and scoring arsenal an array of kicks that will keep the Sale defence guessing. How can teams simultaneously defend the threat of Quins’ outside backs, 50/22 kicks and inside link players like Dombrandt that hit quality running lines. They will be a nightmare to deal with. However, in order to present these offensive challenges, they are going to have to be successful at the breakdown. The key to this being stopping Sale forwards in their tracks.
Sale can stop Harlequins’ momentum and they really could be the first team to upset the reigning champs. The key to this is their powerful pack, Tom Curry will be a menace at the breakdown and the Sharks will keep it scrappy. However, Quins have a lot of class, their pack can front up to Sale’s just enough to give them chances, and we all know what they can do from anywhere on the pitch.
Prediction: Sale Sharks 26 - 31 Harlequins
NEWCASTLE FALCONS vs BRISTOL BEARS
Saturday 16th October
Kingston Park
15:00
The Bears travel to the North East looking to turn their lousy start to the season around. Last year’s regular-season winners have had a shaky start to the season to say the least. After their annihilation at the hands of Quins last week, Pat Lam’s side sits second from bottom with only one win on the season. Newcastle on the other hand have accumulated a very respectable 9 points from their first 4 fixtures, all the more impressive considering they’ve faced Quins, Bath, Wasps and Saracens already. The Falcons will be confident they can continue their good start to the season and add more misery to the Bears at Kingston Park.
Newcastle come into this game off the back of a 14 point loss to Saracens at StoneX stadium. Having led 3-17 early on, they were only denied a losing bonus point by an 83rd minute Billy Vunipola try. However, this week breeds a new and very different challenge in Bristol. Newcastle have already shown this year that winning at Kingston Park is going to be a tough ask for visiting sides. Along with harnessing the noise of the home crowd, the Falcons will need to be their normal selves, with slight adjustments. The hosts welcome back Greg Peterson for this fixture after his international duties with the USA, George Merrick also gets his first start of the season in the second row. In the backs, Max Wright and Mateo Carreras make their first appearances of the season in the 12 and 11 jerseys respectively. Premiership player of the month Adam Radwan also starts again on the wing as he looks to prolong his excellent run of form. We saw in their performances against Sarries, Wasps and Quins that Bristol’s defence hasn’t been able to maintain its intensity for 80 minutes, particularly when sides hammer away with strong ball carrying. As we’ve mentioned before, you aren’t going to get much flash with this Newcastle attack yet it can still cause teams serious problems in its own way. If the Falcons forwards can continuously carry in numbers and chip away at Bristol’s defence, it’ll force the Bears into losing defensive structure as we saw last week. A real feature of Newcastle’s play has been their support on carries, this side doesn’t give teams free opportunities from turnover ball. Instead, their defence forces you to break them down, something which the Bears haven’t done consistently to open the season. If Falcons can once again limit their unforced errors, the combination of Schreuder’s expert kicking and their tight defence will frustrate the Bears’ inconsistent attack.
Bristol’s start to the season went from bad to worse last week. At the home of the reigning champions, Bristol were humbled in a 28 point drubbing. The contest dubbed ‘Bristanbul 2.0’ highlighted exactly what’s been wrong with Pat Lam’s side this year. The losses of Siale Piutau, Ben Earl and Max Malins along with the injury of Semi Radradra have been evident this season. There has been far too much sideways play in their attack and the lack of defensive effort and fitness has been incredibly worrying. However, for all of the negative points, we finally saw a glimpse of how Bristol need to operate in order to return to their winning form of last year. In the first half against Quins, the Bears had constant forward runners charging in at pace with support around the ball. Smart offloads and attacking the gaps between defenders had Quins’ defence on the back foot, exactly what Randall and Sheedy need in order to capitalise out wide. Harry Randall in particular was excellent off the back of that front foot ball. It is imperative this week that Bristol focus on having constant runners challenging the defensive line at pace. Pat Lam has wielded the axe this week as the Bears have made 8 changes to their starting lineup from last week, 5 of these being in the backline. Antoine Frisch, Jack Bates and Toby Fricker all make their first starts of the season in the 12,13 and 14 Jerseys respectively. Up front, Dave Attwood comes back to captain the side, with Sam Jeffries and Dan Thomas joining Fitz Harding in the back row. Piutau, O’Conor, Bedlow, Purdy and Vui are all missing from last week’s side.
Newcastle have exactly what Bristol are searching for, an identity. After the departure of key players, Bristol look lost. The inconsistency in their play is worrying and with a weak lineup, I can’t see them pulling themselves out of this hole until major changes are made. Newcastle’s reliability is exactly why I’m backing them to win this game. In my mind, the Falcons style of play is going to cause massive frustration to the Bears, on both sides of the ball. As we’ve said before, you know exactly what you’re going to get from the Northerner’s; Strong ball carrying, Limited unforced errors and an excellent kicking game. The added bonus of the home crowd should help extend Newcastle’s strong start to the season.
Prediction: Newcastle 26 - 16 Bristol Bears
WASPS vs EXETER CHIEFS
Saturday 16th October
Coventry Building Society Arena
15:00
Both of these sides sit in the top five of our Tight Five power rankings coming into Round 5 of the Premiership. Wasps have won both of their home games this season and will hope for more of the same against a strong Chiefs side. For the away side, the reintroduction of their starlets over the past two rounds has propelled Rob Baxter’s side to consecutive wins. This should be a closely fought battle and with both sides having their defensive issues early in the season, expect an explosive affair.
Although ‘Champagne Rugby’ wasn’t on display, last week’s home win against Northampton was a valuable one for Lee Blackett’s side. This week, they will need to be much improved in order to get the better of a potent Chiefs outfit. Wasps have made a number of changes from last week. The entire front row is replaced as Dan Frost joins Hislop and Toomaga-Allan to make his first start for the Coventry-based side. In the backs, Jimmy Gopperth slots into the 12 jersey after his impactful contribution off the bench last week. The 3-week suspension of Gabe Oghre is a key loss as the 23-year-old has been one of their best so far this season. For Wasps to win this contest, they will need to shift into a new gear of physicality, particularly in defence. The Chiefs have one of the best packs in the league, if Lee Blackett’s side allows those dynamic Chiefs forwards to dominate the collision area it will be a long afternoon for Wasps. Whilst this Exeter lineup is littered with international players, they are more than beatable. Wasps will need to take advantage of Exeter’s early-season defensive issues, they have the attacking firepower to exploit any individual defensive mistakes from the Chiefs, their ability to turn half linebreaks into tries is the pathway to putting up points against Rob Baxter’s side.
The Chiefs have made two changes from last week’s 37 point win against Worcester. Tom O’Flaherty makes way for Jack Nowell who comes back into the side after missing last week. Ryan McCauley also slots into the starting lock position as Will Witty moves to the bench, it will be the Australian’s debut for the club after his move from the Western Force in the summer. The last two rounds have been a big improvement for the Chiefs, as they’ve started to reintroduce their big guns into the picture, they’re looking more and more like the typical Exeter we know. With Wasps unbeaten at home and all of the talent they possess, a big performance will be needed from Rob Baxter’s side. First and foremost, the Chiefs will need to win the battle in the tight. Last week, the likes of Ewers and Cowan-Dickie were excellent with their ball carrying, by punching through the gainline, the Chiefs ruck speed was astonishingly quick. This speed had the Warriors defence at 6s and 7s all game, giving Skinner and the rest of the backline an enormous amount of time and space with which to attack, no doubt Rob Baxter will want his side to mirror those efforts. Exeter will need to limit Wasps’ counter-attacking opportunities as they possess the ability to score from loose play within seconds, as we saw on numerous occasions in their win over Bristol in Round 2. If they can sure up on those one on one defensive situations in the wide channel and not gift Wasps turnover ball, their attacking structure should be able to make inroads against a liable Wasps defence.
Wasps will need to bring their A-game in order to win this game. Whilst they did win last week, a similar performance won’t be good enough to beat this potent Chiefs side. The loss of Gabe Oghre for the home side combined with the likes of Hogg, Simmonds, Cowan-Dickie, Hill and Nowell fully back into the fold for the Chiefs is why I’m tipping Exeter to stretch their winning streak to three.
Prediction: Wasps 23 - 32 Exeter Chiefs
WORCESTER WARRIORS vs LEICESTER TIGERS
Saturday 16th October
Sixways
15:00
Leicester aim to continue their excellent start to this season as they face a Warriors side looking to spoil their unbeaten start to the season. The top of the table Tigers are now the only side without a loss in the 21/22 season after Quins fell to Sale last night. The Warriors will be hoping to make up for three straight losses and cause the upset at Sixways.
After winning their opening game of the year, the wheels have started to fall off the bus for the Warriors. Three straight losses and a 37 point loss last week requires a push of the reset button coming into this game. New recruits Sutherland and Van Der Merwe will make their first home appearance after debuting last week against Exeter. Willi Heinz drops out of the side altogether as Will Chudley starts at scrum-half. The inclusion of Francois Venter this week is a welcome one for Jonathan Thomas’s side, the South African has been influential when involved this season. If Worcester are to cause the upset this week, they need to compete with Leicester forwards. Last week we saw how much they suffered off the back of Exeter’s quick ruck ball, the Warriors will need to accommodate for Leicester’s big ball carrying forwards to ensure that the Tigers don’t get the same attacking platform as the Chiefs did. In attack, they’ll need to retain the ball extremely well. As this Tigers side is a defensive juggernaut, Worcester can’t afford to give that all South African back row a sniff at turning the ball over. If the Warriors can execute in the Red Zone, limit their turnover ball and match Leicester physically, they’ve got a good chance.
Well, if you thought Leicester’s starting XV was jam-packed full of superstars last week, prepare for some of the names I’m about to mention. Jasper Wiese, Leicester’s 20/21 Player of the Season, rejoins the squad to start in the number 8 shirt. He makes up part of an all South African back row as Marco Van Staden makes his maiden start for the club along with the ever-reliable, Hanro Liebenberg. Julian Montoya also makes his first start as a tiger after his impressive cameo off the bench last week, leaving Dolly among the replacements. Matias Moroni also enters the fold after his time in the Rugby Championship with Argentina. This Tigers pack is, in one word, destructive. Last week’s win against London Irish certainly wasn’t vintage but once again, it highlighted their attacking dynamism. Against a resilient defence, the Tigers implemented their power game with their big ball runners causing havoc in the tight. This week, there will be more opportunity for running rugby, against a struggling Warriors defence Leicester’s play off 10 and 12 will no doubt be on display. The maul is going to be another key feature of this game, the Tigers have found success with it every game this year and there’s no reason why that won’t be the same, particularly with the strength of Montoya’s throwing. In defence, Leicester will need to be wary of the powerful Warriors backs in open play. Containing Van Der Merwe, Lawrence and Venter in space will be no easy task but Steve Borthwick’s side has been excellent defensively this season.
Whilst there is a certain gulf in quality, I believe in the changes Jonathan Thomas is trying to install into the club, and he’ll have this side ready to put up a fight and make up for last week’s disappointment. But ultimately, this Leicester pack will be too strong for Worcester. Their defensive fortitude won’t give Worcester many scoring opportunities and the combination of silkiness and power in the backline will break open a struggling Warriors defence.
Prediction: Worcester 19 - 26 Leicester Tigers
BATH RUGBY vs SARACENS
Sunday 17th October
The Rec
15:00
Bath return fresh from a bye and will be hoping to register their first win for the season. The task ahead though is pretty daunting as Saracens. The men in black and red look like the juggernaut of old and continue to welcome back superstars to the fold, making them only tougher and tougher to beat. Mark McCall, however, will no doubt be looking for improvements. They struggled at times this season when trying to play more expansive rugby and still look a little rusty and imprecise when they stray away from their territory and defence gameplan. McCall has clearly noted that the Premiership has moved far-away from just a defence wins championships mantra and is clearly looking to get his team back into the crisp clinical form in attack to match their top drawer defence.
Bath are still winless in 2021/22 and welcome the return of Cipriani to steer this team back in the right direction. Anthony Watson is back in the starting lineup together with Tom Dunn and Miles Reid, all of whom started from the bench a fortnight ago. Bath have lacked direction without an experienced fly-half at 10, their defence has been porous and their attack flashy at times but inaccurate overall. Saracens will be an incredibly tough challenge. Bath will be pressured by Saracens’ notorious line speed and will be forced to play from their halves on many occasions. The recipe for a Bath win starts from accuracy with ball in hand and at the set-piece, and ends with diverse points of attack from front-foot ball. On paper, this Bath side should be able to do that, they have ball-carriers and creative finishers, however they really have not been able to show their potential in their opening 3 fixtures. Defensively, Bath will also need to improve. They must be more resilient. Too often they are unable to hold a team out when they are under-pressure for several phases and buckle after constant attack. To counter this their one-on-one tackling must be both more accurate and more dominant to give their jackals Underhill and Bayliss more turnover opportunities. The key to their success will be threefold: they must hold on to possession; attack with diversity and intent; and lastly; be accurate at the set-piece and physical in the tight.
Saracens are back to winning ways after a 14 point win against the stingy Newcastle Falcons. Nonetheless, there is still quite clearly a ‘bad-taste’ in Sarries mouth after the close loss to Leicester a fortnight ago. They will be looking to go back to back with a convincing display against an underperforming Bath side. Sarries welcome back Maro Itoje, straight back into the starting lineup after his mandatory Lions rest, and Vincent Koch on the bench returning from Springbok duty. In a slight switch up Nick Tompkins and Alex Good come back into the 12 and 15 jersey respectively, moving Malins to the left wing and Dom Morris to the bench. With the full-gang back, McCall will be expecting no less than a comfortable victory. They will pin Bath back, challenge them physically and at the set-piece and coerce them into submission. This Saracens starting pack features 7 internationals, and 4 former Lions. They will be looking to dominate the collisions and make life hell at the breakdown for Bath, avoiding any front-foot and quick ball for Cipriani to play off of. Their defensive line speed will be led by none-other than Maro Itoje in the tight and Nick Tompkins in the loose, both of whom are excellent at pressing fast and nailing their man. Tactically, Farrell and Lozowski will be looking to pin Bath back in their 22 and let their teams choking defence win them penalties and try scoring opportunities.
The Rec faithful will be hoping that Bath can open their winning account for this season. Yet, looking at both sides’ forms and team sheets, it is almost impossible not to foresee a Saracens masterclass. Whilst Bath could keep Saracens’ pack at bay and let Cipriani pull the strings with a diverse attack that challenges the line flat and at speed, paired with short and deep kicks in behind. The reality is that I think that Saracens pack will have Bath on the back foot and force Cipriani to resort to kicks down the middle or going out the back and looking for offloads that aren’t there.
Prediction: Bath 15 - 29 Saracens
Saracens
LONDON IRISH vs GLOUCESTER RUGBY
Sunday 17th October
Brentford Community Stadium
15:00
This game will be a sleeper game of the round. Those who watch London Irish regularly will no doubt know just how entertaining the Exiles are, although watching them is not recommended for your coronary veins! Irish are yet to register a win for 2021/22 and their performances have shown in patches why that is the case and in other flashes why that could change this week. In their three games, they lost to Worcester in a 10 minute span before the end of the first half, against Sale a thrilling late comeback was halted only by the post to end in a draw, and the Northampton game was lost because of silly ill discipline late.
Gloucester, have been similarly good-and-bad in their opening of the season. They have quality players, their rolling maul is lethal, their game management is very polished and their defensive work rate is impressive. Yet they have been porous at times, and unable to score in others. If they can put all the pieces together for 80 minutes they can win this.
London Irish have made just three changes to the starting lineup that lost to Leicester Tigers last week. Isaac Curtis-Harris makes his first starting appearance for the season and Allan Dell makes his way back into the front-row ahead of Goodrick-Clark. Rob Simmons and Adam Coleman also swap from bench to starting lineup. Irish will be working on making sure that their execution is polished and that they can string together an 80 minute performance. Irish have been close on many occasions but have not quite had precision and consistency to finish off games. Against a Gloucester side which has had a similarly undulant start to the season, they ought to have their tails up ready to sniff out a victory. Curtis-Harris’ inclusion gives them another strong line-up option as well as more ball-carrying. They will probably look to move Gloucester’s big pack around aiming for quick plays exhausting the space towards both touchlines. In any case they play their best rugby when they are turning the corner quickly and giving their electric backs time and space to finish. Defensively, they will have to front up. Gloucester have shown that when their pack has momentum Hastings and Co can run a very polished attack, and their rolling maul is notoriously lethal. If Irish can starve Gloucester of possession, move their big pack around the park, and play in the right areas of the field, they can take their first victory of the season.
Gloucester, as aforementioned, have had an up-and-down start to the season. Since Adam Hastings has started at 10 they have won all their matches, however, a closer look will show that they are far from perfect still. This week Argentine international Santiago Carreras starts at full back over Jason Woodward and Val Rapava-Ruskin replaces Harry Elrington at prop. Skivington’s men will look to keep it in tight and bully the Exiles. If they lay the platform for Meehan and Hastings, their tactical kicking game will make them win the territorial battle. Once in the right areas of the field, we have seen just how lethal they are from the set-piece. Most of their tries have come as a direct consequence of set-piece success, whether from the rolling maul or just a couple of phases afterwards. Their backline is star-studded with 5 internationals that are solid two-way players, so they should be able to contain the firepower that the Exiles possess. Their pack has shown that they have the defensive work-rate, yet they have at times dropped off in their intensity. Exiles are a never-say-die type side and Gloucester will have to assert their dominance and come away with points at every occasion.
These two sides are quite different in style and personnel but their performances have had a common denominator - inconsistency over 80 minutes. Because of that I feel that the momentum will be swinging frequently in this match, and the side that wins the key moments will win the match. We don’t normally predict a draw, but this one feels so close on the cards that we’ve got them all tied up after 80 minutes.
Prediction: London Irish 34 - 34 Gloucester
Can Sale end Harlequins’ 5 game unbeaten run dating back to their loss to Sale in May 2021?
Wasps take on the Chiefs!
