Round 6: Matchday Preview
NORTHAMPTON SAINTS vs WORCESTER WARRIORS
Friday 22nd October
Franklins Gardens
19:45
Northampton are back after their bye week hosting the Worcester Warriors at the Gardens. The sides are fighting at opposite ends of the spectrum, as Worcester have not registered a victory since their opening result against Irish, whilst Northampton only had their unbeaten start to the season chalked off by a thorny Wasps side a fortnight ago. Worcester, after an encouraging start to the season, have been humbled in their last two outings as both Exeter and Leicester exposed their flaws. Saints fans, on the other hand, will be hoping that Chris Boyd’s side has freshened up over the break and will be ready to bring back the physicality that characterized their opening three wins to the season.
The Saints are rested, but they will have to do without George Furbank and Matt Proctor for this game. The duo both went off injured during the Wasps game a fortnight ago and have not yet fully recovered. In that game, their exit early on really affected their performance as they began losing attacking structure and threats in the midfield. This week they will resort to route 1 and look to use their powerful pack to assert their physical presence on the Warriors. Boyd has opted for a 6-2 split once again. Likely disappointed by their last outings’ second half performance, Boyd has shifted Augustus back to the bench and will be expecting a big impact from him, as well as experienced campaigner, Tom Wood.
The backs have undergone a slight reshuffle to deal with injuries. New England call-up Tommy Freeman takes up Furbank’s place. Whilst Dingwall shifts to 13 in the place of Proctor and Rory Hutchison fills in at 12. Courtnall Skosan will also make his Saints debut on the left wing after making the move to Franklin’s Gardens this summer.
In terms of gameplan, Northampton will look to dominate physically, stifle Worcester’s attack and play a kicking game that lets them play in the right areas of the field - something Biggar is so good at ensuring. Once they gain territorial control, expect them to launch plays off the back of set-piece, including their trademark ‘wide first-receiver’ option.
Worcester come into this game desperate for not just a win but any positive result. After a solid summer campaign and an impressive start to the season on the pitch, they have just one victory to show for their hard-work. Willi Heinz slots back into halfback and will provide much needed control of the tempo as well as a polished box-kicking game. A host of other changes have been made since last week’s beating at the hands of the Tigers. Graham Kitchener slots into the row in the place of Clegg, whilst Kvesic and Vailanu swap roles from bench to No.8. Niall Annett also gets his first start of the season with Baldwin demoted to the bench. The first goal for Jonathan Thomas’ side is to match the physical battle that this Saints side will pose. They’ve got a very hard-working pack headlined by the work-rate of Kyle Hatherell and ball-carrying of Rory Sutherland. In addition to their work rate and physicality, having opted to go with the duo of specialists in Lewis and Kvesic, they will target the breakdown looking to make Northampton work extra hard for their ball retention. In the backs, Fin Smith makes his starting debut for the Warriors and will need to pull the strings tidily in tandem with Heinz to make the most of the international calibre talent they have outside. Doel has shifted to the right wing to make space for Shillcock at fullback. If they can stick with the Northampton pack and keep things tight, they do have the talents to break games from nothing. It's all about setting the table and keeping within striking distance for the Worcester-men.
With both sides looking to get back to winning ways, but for very different reasons, this match has the ingredients to be an entertaining and passionate affair. Worcester will not be the favourites but they have the ability to score and will definitely test Northampton’s defence at times. The question for Worcester is can they keep Northampton out for long-enough by mounting their own periods of pressure. If they can do this, the result may well be in the balance. Yet there is little doubt in my mind that Northampton will be raring to go and even if it's within a score at the 60 minute mark, the talent, experience and impact players of the Saints will bring it home.
Prediction: Northampton Saints 37 - 17 Worcester Warriors
EXETER CHIEFS vs LONDON IRISH
Saturday 23rd October
Sandy Park
15:00
The Chiefs are back. They’ve replenished their stocks over the last couple of weeks and have put on a couple of statement wins to show that they will be, as everyone expected, at the pointy end of the table come the business end of the season. The Exiles, on the other hand, have not been able to get results to match their performances. Their inability to string 80 minute performances, marred by ill-discipline, bad-luck and complete fades or late resurgences has harmed their ability to get points. Exeter Chiefs away will be the most daunting task for one of only two sides yet to register a win in the premiership this season.
The Chiefs have won three on the trot and despite showing that they mean business again this season, they still have a lot of work-ons. Irish have shown that when they have a purple patch of momentum they are a dangerous side. Exeter’s one-on-one defence has not been up to their typically high standards so far this season. Rob Baxter has rotated a little bit of the pack and will be expecting that the fresh legs can put in a strong defensive performance from the get-go. An all new front-row compromising of Yeandle, Moon and Nixon replaces the injured Cowan-Dickie and pushes Hepburn and Williams to the bench. Jonny Hill is the sole survivor from last week's tight five and will be pairing Will Witty, who’s been promoted from the bench. Sam Skinner at blindside is the last change to a semi-rotated pack. Despite 5 changes in the pack, there is experience and a clear understanding of roles up front. They’ll be aggressive and look to halt this Irish pack’s offloading by putting on an imposing defensive performance.
Stopping Irish’s attacking game will in itself provide an array of attacking opportunities for this lethal Exeter side. The backline only has two seamless changes, with Joe Simmonds swapping from the bench to 10 and Tom O’Flaherty starting on the left wing. Baxter was not afraid to drop Simmonds when the performances were not up to standard, but now he feels he is ready to return and prove that this jersey is his. Exeter will look to challenge at the breakdown hard and look to attack Irish in turnover situations. The Exiles have struggled to deal with teams that can absorb their attack and then starve them of possession. Baxter will be expecting a performance that shows their A-Grade defence, and the rest will follow.
The Exiles have had a subpar start to the season. Their two draws, both disappointing for different reasons, are the only positive results in this campaign so far. They’ve named a largely similar side to that which has played well in patches but never been good enough to bag a result. Les Kiss will know that this side needs to improve on the defensive end. Last week was an improvement, but their inability to defend Gloucester’s maul cost them a winnable game. This week the task is even greater, as Exeter will not grant them the possession totals the Irish enjoyed last week, and they will still pose a threat at the set-piece.
Tom Pearson debuts on the openside for the Exiles and Les Kiss has opted for the typical front-row rotation with Goodrick-Clarke and Hoskins getting the nod this week over Dell and Van der Merwe. The core of this side has hardly been changed in the last six weeks and this pack will continue to play its mobile and offload based rugby. In order to do this successfully against Exeter, they can and must exploit the weaknesses that the Chiefs have shown in the last few weeks. Their carriers should target individual defenders in a similar way that Northampton has been doing and look to split defenders in and around the ruck. Nick Phipps’ role in providing probing runs and accurate passes will go a long way to making this Irish pack rumble forward and take advantage of their offload game.
The backs are unchanged from last week and will hope to unleash their ‘jouè’ style of rugby, something they have not been able to do consistently this season. If Paddy Jackson can get consistent front foot ball, Loader, Hassle-Collins and Parton are one of the most lethal young back three trios in the league, feed them the ball!
London Irish have still not put all the pieces together to get their first win of the season. They certainly have the personnel to threaten even the top sides like Exeter, but I don’t see them putting in a performance strong enough to topple the Chiefs. Exeter have been slowly shifting through the gears and they will be looking to keep their momentum going into the international window. They’ve still got a lot to prove to themselves, and that's when this side is at its best.
Prediction: Exeter Chiefs 34 - 21 London Irish
GLOUCESTER RUGBY vs NEWCASTLE FALCONS
Saturday 23rd October
Kingsholm
15:00
Kingsholm hosts a clash between two sides in hot form as Newcastle travel to the South West. The Cherry and Whites have turned a corner after losing their two opening games, and since Adam Hastings made his starting debut back in Round 3, Gloucester are unbeaten. The Falcons have won three of their last four and currently sit 6th on the ladder. Newcastle will be looking to cause the upset on route to their second away victory of the season.
After Gloucester’s disappointing start to the season, the men from the South West have strung together a 3 game unbeaten run. Whilst it certainly helped that their starlets rejoined the squad after two rounds, their forwards have been the real catalyst. In the last three weeks, the Gloucester starting forwards have averaged a monstrous 114 tackles per game, that’s 15 tackles per forward! There was no doubt that a George Skivington lead side was going to try and impose themselves on their opposition, but the defensive attitude and mauling abilities have turned this forward pack into one of the best in the Premiership in my opinion. In this fixture, the Cherry and White’s forwards will need to front up once again. Against a Newcastle side that competes for everything, Gloucester’s forwards will be expected to make a truckload of tackles once again, whilst limiting penalty goal opportunities for Brett Connon. If Gloucester’s forwards can replicate their efforts of recent weeks, we know what their star-studded backline can do with ball in space. Whilst Newcastle don’t make many major defensive errors, this dynamic Gloucester backline can create opportunities with their silky moves and space exploitation skills. If this game does become a scrappy affair, we saw last week that the home side has the ability to maintain their defensive resilience and capitalise on any half-chances. Gloucester have made only two changes in the starting lineup from last week’s draw at London Irish, Adam Hastings misses out after his selection to the Scotland squad whilst Jason Woodward replaces Santiago Carreras at fullback.
Dean Richards has made three changes to the starting XV from their win against Bristol last week. Adam Radwan is a surprise omission from the squad, missing out with a ‘minor knee problem’, however offseason signing Nathan Earle returns to take his place. Philip Van Der Walt slots straight back into the lineup moving Merrick to the bench, Pete Lucock is also favoured over Max Wright in the 12 jersey. Newcastle have been quietly impressive to start this season, in the same fashion as last year. This side goes about their business diligently, forcing teams to match their physicality. Last week’s victory against Bristol was yet another outstanding performance, bar one piece of Harry Randall brilliance, the Falcons did not look like conceding a try at any stage of the game. This is a team built upon the idea that 15 players pulling in the same direction is better than a few trying to be heroes on their own. Each player understands their role, and as a team they know their game plan and how to execute it. As the newcomers continue to develop their on-field connections, this team can only get stronger. In this contest, it will be imperative for Newcastle to keep their discipline to not give Gloucester chances at their line. The Cherry and Whites have developed their maul into a serious try-scoring threat, so, even if the Falcons can stifle Gloucester’s open play attack, silly penalties in their own half will gift Gloucester’s pack chances to score from their potent maul game. Anybody who views these lineups at face value and thinks that this will be an easy Gloucester victory is wrong, Newcastle’s style of play has the ability to frustrate the home side and force them into errors.
I really do believe in Newcastle this season, I think their stellar offseason additions will allow them to continue to perform consistently well over the course of the season, unlike last year. However, I think Gloucester will edge this game and improve on their current three-game unbeaten streak. That Cherry and White maul has been unstoppable recently and with the home crowd in full song, I’m trusting Gloucester to win the key moments and sneak home.
Prediction: Gloucester 26 - 20 Newcastle Falcons
HARLEQUINS vs BATH RUGBY
Saturday 23rd October
Twickenham Stoop
15:00
The high-flying Harlequins were taken down by a robust defensive and physical display from Sale away last week. They’ve grown into a habit of winning lately and will be looking to demonstrate that this season they can be consistent all year. Bath are coming off their greatest home defeat of all time. They have yet to register a win and there are many fans and critics alike calling for Stuart Hooper to get the sack. A reaction is needed. The players owe it to themselves as well as the fans, and they have the talent in this squad to win many games. This Bath side has been missing an identity, so perhaps the emotional reaction that is likely to ensure a side that has conceded 71 points just 6 days ago could be the kind of rock bottom scenario that gets the ball moving again.
Quins have been great to start the season, but suffered the consequences last week of a perfectly executed game plan which aimed to do one thing - starve Quins of attacking possession. This week they are facing the worst defensive side in the Premiership and a team that has just conceded a historic walloping. The only concern for Quins could be underestimating their opponents and not laying their foundations appropriately. Tabai Matson has named a side that seems perfectly adept at doing just that, laying the foundation at the set-piece, defensively and in their ball-carrying as well as the outside threats which make this team unplayable when they are at their attacking best.
Will Collier and Tom Lawday are the new entries into the starting pack, replacing Kerrod and Kenningham respectively. They are both ‘role’ players that effectively carry-out what they do best. Hard graft on the defensive end and straight-line ball-carrying. In the backs a slight reshuffle sees Marchant return to his preferred 13 jersey as Lynagh is back on the right wing in the place of Northmore.
Bath are on the opposite spectrum, both of the table as well as in terms of feeling. Bath have had a big mediatic campaign that has given the fans a notable insight on the identity that Bath wished to play with this year. However, the reality is that they have not only strayed from the identity they have talked up, but they have none at the moment. Bath have a star-studded squad and they have been expected to perform according to their billing. Yet Bath’s biggest problem is not just that they have been beaten by better sides, but bar a few players, they have lacked effort. This week, they have to show a reaction. They have the quality to compete with Quins on paper, so it's time for them to demonstrate their ability. The route to beating Quins is not impossible. First they must make sure that their defence is full of passion and desire, not only avoiding the defensive lapses in midfield that have leaked tries, but also making sure that every collision is dominant. Secondly, they have to be aggressive at the breakdown, making sure that any line break or half-break by Quins is punished with a turnover. Lastly, they must calm their attacking game and learn to make offloads that are feasible. Since the season began, their desire to play exciting ruby has thrown any sort of pragmatism to the wind, and unfortunately their execution has not been to the standard necessary to make that sort of play effective.
This game will be an emotional one, as Bath try and get their season back on course, whilst Quins look to quickly get back to winning ways. Emotional games suit Quins’ character, and Bath just have not demonstrated that they have the defensive structures to quell an attack as potent as Quins’. Though they might string together some strong attacking sequences, we expect Quins to pull away against a defence that eventually succumbs to the multitude of attacking threats that Harlequins possess.
Prediction: Harlequins 44 - 24 Bath
LEICESTER TIGERS vs SALE SHARKS
Mattioli Woods Welford Road
15:00
Mattioli Woods Welford Road hosts the potential game of the round as the top of the table Tigers host a fully loaded Sharks side. Leicester began this season with a statement win over Exeter and since then, have improved week on week. To maintain their status as the only unbeaten side left in the Premiership, they’ll have to put away a gnarly Sharks in order to extend their lead at the top of the table. As for Sale, after a mediocre start to the season, last week’s win over the reigning champions showed that this side, when fully loaded, is a threat to any team. The reintroduction of the Du Preez brothers and more recently Tom Curry, is slowly building their forward pack back to the force it was last year and with another superstar included this week, this game is yet to be an enthralling encounter.
Ruthless, resilient, versatile - those are some of the words I would use to describe the Tigers so far this season. Whilst many thought Leicester would be competing for a top 4 spot this year, it’s fair to say that not many expected Steve Borthwick’s side to be this impressive, this early on. Their dismantling of Worcester last week was the first time Leicester have really flexed their muscles this season. After three back to back one-score victories, their 48-3 drubbing last week was a showcase of the talent and depth this side possesses. Three changes have been made to the starting lineup for this week, Calum Green replaces Eli Snyman in the second row for the only change to an international-filled forward pack. Ben Youngs takes over from young Jack Van Poortvliet at scrum-half, with Richard Wigglesworth set to come off the bench. Dan Kelly is also back from his suspension and takes his spot at number 12 with Matias Moroni looking to provide impact off the bench. This will be yet another tough matchup for the Tigers, the return of Sale’s superstars makes them an incredibly dangerous side, as we saw last week. For this challenge, the Leicester pack will once again have to display their power game. In defence, they’ll need to ensure that Sale’s big ball carriers can’t get ascendency by constantly punching through the gain line. We saw last week that the Sharks have not been able to fully execute their red zone opportunities, so it will be up to the forwards to hold firm and limit their penalty count. I envision a kick heavy game from Leicester, particularly with Youngs’ box kicking abilities, in order to put pressure on the Sharks and make them play out of their own territory.
The Sharks have made a host of changes for Saturday afternoon’s clash. In the forwards, the inclusion of South African international Lood De Jager is a much welcome one. De Jager rejoins after his international duties with South Africa, he pushed JL Du Preez into the back row in place of his twin brother, Dan. Tommy Taylor also gets his first start of the season in the front row since rejoining from Wasps in the summer. Raffi Quirke is the notable absence for this fixture - last week's man of the match is not involved at all in this game - and Gus Warr takes his place at scrum-half. Rohan JV Rensburg and Marland Yarde are the final two changes in the back line. Alex Sanderson’s men were almost back to full flow last week after their shaky start to the season. Tom Curry, who made his season debut, showed his effect on the side as they smothered Quins in defence. This week, the defensive intensity will need to be the same against a mammoth Tigers pack. They’ll need to once again, slow the ruck ball down and win collisions, forcing the likes of Youngs and Ford to play off the back foot. It will also be essential for Sale’s back three to deal with the aerial threats, it’s highly likely that the Tigers will look to box kick and compete in the air from their own territory. In attack, Sale will need to improve two things from last week; their red zone efficiency and their goal kicking. For all of their dominance last week, the squandering of chances in the 22 can’t be afforded this week, they’ll need to put pressure on Leicester by adding to the scoreboard in good field position. Along with that, Wilkinson will need to improve his goal kicking, in a tight game every point counts and it may end up being the difference in this matchup.
With the amount of defensive firepower that each side occupies, points are going to come at a premium. Neither side is likely to make many crucial defensive mistakes to allow the other to profit from line breaks and broken play. The two forward packs in particular are going to try and make their presence felt with an imposing line speed and brutal contact in the collision throughout the game. Unlike last week, look for Sale to attack the breakdown more often in an attempt to win key turnover ball and use their defence as a way to set their attacking platform. Although the inclusion of Lood De Jager will boost Sale’s chances, I can’t bet against this unbeaten Leicester side. The likes of Van Staden, Wiese and Liebenberg are going to work tirelessly to ensure the Tigers can edge the power game. In a game decided with key moments, I ultimately trust George Ford’s boot and the roaring home crowd to see Leicester over the line and prolong their unbeaten start to the year.
Prediction: Leicester Tigers 23 - 16 Sale Sharks
SARACENS vs WASPS
Sunday 24th October
StoneX Stadium
15:00
The 5-time English champions host a heavily rotated Wasps side and will be looking to continue on from last week’s 71-17 demolition of Bath. Sarries have only lost one game this season, they sit 5th on the ladder and a win would move them into the top 3. On the other hand, Wasps have had a mixed start to the season and will be looking to cause a major upset against Mark McCall’s red hot side.
For anyone who believed differently (not that there were many), last week proved that Sarries are back to their old selves. The 71-17 dismantling of bottom of the table Bath highlighted that this side, when on song, has the ability to blow sides out of the water. Against an undermanned Wasps side this week, Mark McCall will be hoping his side keep their foot on the gas. Sarries have made only two changes to the starting lineup from last week. South African, Vincent Koch, gets his first start of the season to make up an all international front row and young Andy Christie starts on the blindside flank after some impressive bench appearances this season. This is Saracens' game to lose. With the gulf in quality between the two sides, the only way Sarries lose this game is if they continue to give Wasps chances. Having said that, I don’t expect that to happen. Instead, I’m expecting the same old ruthless side that won’t be happy with anything short of a resounding bonus point victory in front of their home crowd at the StoneX.
Lee Blackett was clear in the week that his side was going to be very different from last week’s loss to Exeter. With key players rested after having played for the majority of their 4 games, this Wasps lineup is heavily understrength. Only 3 players remain from last week's starting lineup with a number of players making their debut for the club. Whilst they would have been underdogs for this contest even at full strength, this side will need a miracle performance to overturn Sarries. In order to do so, they need to take their chances. There will be limited opportunities in the Red Zone for this Wasps side but if there are, they need to convert them into points frequently. If Sarries have an off day and Wasps can convert their chances, who knows what could happen. In defence, it will be about absorbing relentless Saracens attacks without conceding too many penalties. If Wasps can frustrate Sarries attack and force them into rushing passes and making uncharacteristic mistakes, they can limit the damage somewhat, but the talent gap seems so great on paper that this is highly unlikely.
I’m not sure how anybody can pick against this Saracens side after last week’s performance, particularly against a heavily undermanned Wasps side at their home ground. As much as we can talk about game plan and tactics, this is simply a mismatch of talent. I expect Saracens to have no issues in this contest on their way to another bonus-point victory.
Prediction: Saracens 41 - 15 Wasps
Saints back at the Garden’s to host the Warriors
The Chiefs host the Exiles at Sandy Park
A ‘classic’ at Welford Road!
