Round 9: Matchday Preview
BATH VS EXETER CHIEFS
Friday 26th November
The Recreation Ground
19:45
The Rec faithful are still waiting for the first win of the season and this Friday night they host a frustrated powerhouse. Exeter Chiefs have had a mixed start to the season, suffering several upsets including 3 home losses at Sandy Park. The break will undoubtedly have given Rob Baxter’s men time to reflect and shore up their defensive issues in order to take on what has been defined as a series of “season-defining matches”.
Bath will similarly have used this time to reflect. The west-country men need to find a performance that can turn their season around and a win against Exeter at the Rec would be the type of scalp they are craving.
Bath have named a full-strength side, welcoming back key internationals and Ben Spencer from an early-season injury. In the pack, Bath have named an industrious tight five including the returning England tighthead Will Stuart. Sam Underhill and Josh Bayliss round out the back row returning from England and Scotland duty respectively. Once again, the comment on Bath is that on paper their side looks solid and has international calibre talent capable of winning games. This forward pack has slowly been performing better and better, benefitting from being increasingly simple and direct. If they are to beat Exeter, everything will start from the pack, the set-piece will need to be immaculate and their ruck speed will dictate whether their talented outside backs will have opportunities to punish an unorganised Exeter defence. In particular, Bath’s lineout defence has been fragile and against Exeter’s rolling maul it is imperative that they stop it resoundingly to give themselves a chance on the scoreboard.
The backline is at full strength, with Orlando Bailey getting the nod at 10 over the out-of-form Danny Cipriani. The youngster has largely been a distributor but has shown flashes of a deft kicking game. Bath’s route to success starts with the pack but it certainly relies on the likes of Ojomoh and Joseph to unlock the Chiefs defence with their smart lines and offloading game.
Exeter will be looking to get back to winning ways after their shock loss at Sandy Park to Newcastle before the break. Despite the gruelling Autumn Nation Series for Exeter’s internationals and facing the bottom dwellers Bath this week, Baxter has named a full-strength side. A real testament to the difficulty level of the Premiership this season, where there is no margin for error or it will result in a defeat. The pack welcomes back Sam Simmonds who was used sporadically off the bench for England and will be eager to continue his typical try-scoring form off the back of solid Exeter pack. Iosefa-Scott gets a start ahead of Harry Williams and the back row features the dominant duo of Kirsten and Ewers.
In the backs, Harvey Skinner continues to be favoured ahead of Joe Simmonds who has not been in great form to start this season. Ian Whitten also surprisingly gets the start over Tom Hendrickson who was in stellar form ahead of the break.
Exeter have the quality to be at the top end of the table, and their ambitions have undoubtedly remained the same despite their shaky start to the season. A convincing win against Bath is certainly possible, but they are more likely to be involved in an old school grind which will really test their desire. Exeter’s one on one defence has been ‘un-typically’ poor to start the season, being exposed by many teams who have punished their defence in the midfield far too easily. The reason for this flaky defence can be partially attributed to Exeter’s decreased efficiency in the red zone following the introduction of the new latching laws. Whilst the Chiefs are still a force to be reckoned with their pick and drive, the penalty for being unsuccessful is far greater and this has tolled on them in the games against resilient defence. I expect Baxter to have devised a greater variety of attacking plays from the midfield in order to create try-scoring opportunities in the loose rather than off structured and slow ball.
This game will be interesting as it will show how both teams have reacted during the break. Bath desperately need a win to give their season hope, and Exeter need one in order to reignite their top 4 ambitions. This will probably be a gritty Friday Night affair at the Rec. The packs will dictate proceedings and whichever gets a more dominant edge in ruck speed and set-piece stability will win this game. The Tight Five’s instincts say that despite some wobbles, Exeter have a better chance of winning that battle and capitalizing on their opportunities.
Prediction: Bath 24 - Exeter 29
BRISTOL BEARS vs NORTHAMPTON SAINTS
Friday 26th November
Ashton Gate
19:45
Ashton Gate hosts an intriguing matchup between a Bristol Bears side looking to turn their season around and a Northampton Saints side hoping to wrestle their way back into the top 4. Both sides welcome back a number of top international players after their Autumn Nations Series endeavours. Bristol come into this fixture having dominated recent matchups between the two sides, winning their last 5 against the Saints.
The expectation for this Bristol side was to repeat their efforts of last year and remain serious title contenders, and with Pat Lam signing a huge 7-year deal early on in the season, Bears fans were highly optimistic. Instead, Bristol have massively underachieved to this point, having only managed three wins on the year all of which have been against sides in the bottom half of the ladder. Now entering Round 9, Bristol sit in 11th place and look a fraction of the side they were in the 2020/21 season.
We’ve seen flashes of Bristol’s ability to tear teams apart and the key is quick and clean ruck ball. The solid base from the ruck to unleash the devastating Bristol backline stems from the Bears’ forwards ball carrying. When Bristol’s forwards carry hard at the line in numbers, they can cause sides all sorts of trouble, but we simply haven’t seen it occur consistently throughout the season. The likes of Vui, Harding and Joyce will need to lead from the front and ensure the forwards are carrying hard to chip away at Northampton’s strong defensive line. As mentioned, Chris Vui is back into the side after his injury spell, he joins club talisman Joe Joyce in the engine room. Jake Heenan captains the side with the ever-improving Fitz Harding and Sam Jeffries filling out the back row. Callum Sheedy also returns from international duty with Wales to start at fly-half with Andy Uren partnering him in the halves. A win on Friday night would no doubt be the biggest of the season for this Bristol side, it is imperative that they build their game plan upon winning the battle up front rather than trying to attack in the wide channels without ‘gaining the right to do so’.
Northampton welcome back a plethora of world-class internationals after their ventures in the Autumn Nations Series. After captaining England in their victory over South Africa, Courtney Lawes returns to start in the back row with club captain Lewis Ludlam and Juarno Augustus joining him. Dan Biggar also returns after starting in all three of Wales’ fixtures, he’s reunited with Alex Mitchell who starts at scrum-half. Tommy Freeman and George Furbank start in the back three after spending time in England camp whilst Matt Proctor returns from injury to partner Fraser Dingwall in the centres.
The Saints will be looking to make a serious top 4 push in this Christmas period before their internationals jet off for the Six Nations in February. They must take advantage of having their full contingent in games like these where they know if they play to their potential, they can blow sides out of the water. We’ve seen how Mitchell and Biggar can pull the strings in attack, but the key for me in this game is the defence of Dingwall and Proctor in midfield. With Bristol looking to create gainline success up the middle and then shift the ball across the pitch and find holes out wide, there will be a big emphasis on Northampton’s centres shutting down those attacks. Both centres have proven to be excellent defenders and I think the Saints will look to turn strong defence into turnovers, particularly in the wide channels. Northampton are the more talented side, their downfall will be providing Bristol with opportunities through unforced errors and ill-discipline. If they can keep those two things in check, they should be able to assert physical dominance and exploit some shaky defence in the wide channels.
Simply put, I think Northampton are the better side and with Lawes, Freeman, Furbank, and Biggar re-entering the fold, they’ve got the experience and leadership to put this young Bristol side away. For the Bears to win, they’ll have to piece together a full 80-minute performance with their forwards standing up to Northampton physically, but based on their inconsistency to maintain that physical presence this season, I have my doubts in this contest.
Prediction: Bristol Bears 20 - 28 Northampton Saints
NEWCASTLE FALCONS VS WORCESTER WARRIORS
Friday 26th November
Kingston Park
19:45
Friday night sees the Newcastle Falcons host the Worcester Warriors on Friday night at Kingston Park. The Falcons will be looking to back up their memorable Round 8 victory over the Exeter Chiefs whilst the Warriors will hope to build off of their 50 point Premiership Cup drubbing of Bristol.
We at Tight Five Rugby have sung the praises of this Falcons side all season, whilst not being the most exciting of sides, they have become very tough to beat. Newcastle know who they are and they stick to what they do best; Compete with teams physically, limit their error count and force other teams into mistakes with their robust defence. The Falcons are also just one of two sides this season who are yet to concede a try after a scrum, a credit to how well drilled this side is. Kingston Park has turned into a fortress of some sorts this season, with Newcastle having only lost one game there this season. For this clash, the Falcons welcome back their England contingent in Adam Radwan, Callum Chick, Trevor Davison and Jamie Blamire. Radwan and Davison are in the starting XV with Chick and Blamire headlining the replacements. The usual cohort Mike Brown, Louis Schreuder, Will Welch, Carl Fearns, Pete Lucock, Ben Stevenson and Phillip Van Der Walt all return after resting during the Premiership Cup window, leaving the Falcons with their strongest side. A win in this fixture could potentially see Newcastle sneak their way into the top 4 going into Round 10. In order to do so, they don’t need to shy away from their typical game plan. The Falcons will put pressure on Worcester’s attack with a quick and connected defensive line, looking to create unforced errors whilst keeping it simple yet effective in attack with brutal carries and consistent ball retention. With Worcester also absent of some key leaders, this Falcons side will look to stamp their authority on the game early on and not give the Warriors early opportunities to build momentum off.
The international break has been very promising for the Worcester Warriors. Firstly, their one and only Premiership Cup fixture saw them dismantle Bristol 68-13, providing yet another great experience for their youngsters. On top of that, it was announced that former Sale Sharks director of rugby, Steve Diamond, has been appointed as the club’s ‘Lead Rugby Consultant’. Whilst Diamond won’t join the club until next week, the Warriors envision him working closely with Director of Rugby Alan Solomons and Head Coach Jonathan Thomas to improve the club and transform them into a difficult side to beat. With his wealth of experience, Diamond will ‘Review all aspects of the rugby programme, advise on changes and help with player recruitment for next year’ as per Worcester’s co-owners.
For this weekend’s fixture against the Falcons, the Warriors faithful will be hoping their squad can feed off the momentum of last week’s blowout victory. Worcester will be without two key players in Ollie Lawrence, who still remains unavailable through injury and Willi Heinz who is still fighting to regain full fitness. Rory Sutherland, Harri Doel, Will Butler, Matt Kvesic and Melani Nanai are also unavailable through injury. Scotland international Duhan Van Der Merwe slots straight back into the starting lineup after his Autumn Nations Series campaign. Gareth Simpson and Jay Tyack both make their maiden starts for the club at scrum-half and tighthead prop respectively.
Jonathan Thomas described Worcester’s path to victory perfectly in his presser this week when he said “You don’t need to over-think the game. It’s about mindset, physicality and being emotionally ready”. The Warriors will simply need to front up if they are to win this game, the Falcons will deploy their typical, but effective, structure in which they play a heavy power game up front, and kick for territory looking to force mistakes out of their opponents in defence. The best way to combat that style of rugby is to assert dominance at the set-piece and in the contact area whilst also keeping the penalty count to a minimum. The Warriors have enough talent and experience to win this contest, but it will simply come down to attitude and desire to win the physical battle.
Newcastle have been too reliable at home for me to tip against them in this fixture. With some key leaders missing for the Warriors, the Falcons should be able to win the physical battle and force the Warriors into errors with their smothering defence. Behind the reliable boot of Joel Hodgson, the Falcons will continue to punish any ill-discipline in kickable range and frustrate this Worcester side.
Prediction: Newcastle Falcons 27 - 12 Worcester Warriors
WASPS RUGBY VS GLOUCESTER RUGBY
Friday 26th November
Coventry Building Society Arena
19:45
Gloucester travel to Coventry to face a resilient Wasps side boosted by the return of Alfie Barbeary off the bench. The Cherry & Whites have surprised many with their early-season success off the back of what has been one of the most dominant packs in the Premiership so far. Wasps have proven that they can front up, especially at home, making this an interesting and unpredictable matchup.
Wasps have relished off the back of a much-improved defence and their successes have been a direct consequence of their counter-attacking ability from turnover ball. They have scored a staggering 33% of their tries from turnovers and their foundation this season has been built on the back of their defensive resilience. The pack is typically solid with no new additions to the 8 that have started the majority of games this season, though Young and Stooke are welcomed back after their international stints with Wales and England respectively. In the backs, the absence of Dan Robson hurts their attacking outlook as he is the fulcrum of their tempo and often does his forward runners favours with his snipes and accurate gainline passes. The biggest surprise is Josh Bassett being named in the 13 jersey meaning that Wasps will effectively be playing with three wingers by trade. If their defence can stop Gloucester’s momentum, and generate turnovers through Oghre, Young and Barbeary off the bench, this side has the firepower to punish small errors. However, if they struggle to win the breakdown battle, Gloucester’s rolling maul and the kicking game of Meehan and Hastings will make this a complicated affair.
The route to success is based largely on their ability to interrupt Gloucester’s possession and stop their rolling maul. In games where they have success, they have kept it close and managed to win them through late set-piece dominance and their ability to break tired, frustrated defences to bits in the latter stages of games. Stooke and Fifita are the best lineout steal duo in the Premiership and their ability to disrupt the Cherry & Whites lineout will be key.
The Cherry and Whites continued their hot start to the season in the Prem Cup. Skivington is building the culture of success and has placed his foundations, unsurprisingly, in the engine room. As our name suggests, we appreciate that the tight five is the foundation of almost all success in Rugby. Against Wasps, the game plan will be no different, with an even greater focus on ball retention at the breakdown. This week the pack features the usual suspects plus the dynamic ball carrier Jack Clement in the starting lineup. This hard-working pack is rarely flashy but often very efficient. Conversely, Gloucester’s backline is pure flash and features plenty of returning internationals. Louis Rees-Zammit won’t feature but Hastings and May start. Ollie Thorley occupies the right-wing and Kyle Moyle covers at full-back, the former will provide his typical hard running whilst the latter may well glide through a wounded defence in the latter stages of the match.
This game is so difficult to predict. Although it is clear that this match will be contested, won and lost in the forwards, it's hard to judge who has the edge. The player matchups are fairly even in the forwards and whilst Gloucester dispose of a better set of backs, Wasps do have home advantage.
Prediction: Wasps 25 - 23 Gloucester
HARLEQUINS VS LONDON IRISH
Saturday 27th November
Twickenham Stoop
15:00
Two of the most exciting sides in the Premiership face-off at the Twickenham Stoop in what should be a high-scoring skirmish. Quins rest their England stars but still put out an international calibre squad, a testament to their depth. The visitors were starting a bit of a hot streak before the International window, something that we had predicted and claimed was fundamental to the success of their season. The Exiles have 6 former internationals and just Hoskins and Tuisue were called up for Australia and Fiji respectively. The international calibre retained during the international windows makes the Exiles favourites in many matchups where stars are being rested. Saturday’s match will not be easy as Quins have shown that their culture has permeated the young players and non-internationals to the extent that in their last outing, against Wasps in round 8, they pulled off another one of their famous second-half comebacks.
The hosts are exciting and they will be in this matchup. Their ability to score from anywhere on the park means that any defensive lapse will be punished. London Irish have shown that their defence can be a green wall for many phases. Breaking down the Irish defence will require their typical fast ruck speed followed by an array of runners flooding the midfield. Tommy Allan is back at the helm after a nasty series of head knocks and will be looking to vary between picking the right runners and showing off some of his running game. Oscar Beard gets his first start on the right-wing ahead of Louis Lynagh and will be looking to emulate the latter’s burst onto the scene. In the pack, Marler is the only international in the starting XV in a largely unchanged pack from the last few weeks. Chisholm, Kennignham and Lawday will combine once again in the back row for their third start together as a trio. Quins will look to outscore Irish, but defence will prove crucial because when the Exiles mobile pack gets offloading they can be a force to be reckoned with. Thus the tight five will have to front up early on and be very attritional and confrontative to stop any early momentum from a pack that has been getting better and better as the season progresses.
London Irish have been clicking in the last few rounds and on their day, can beat anyone. They have become more disciplined and simplified their gameplan. Whilst their forwards still look to offload at a high rate, they have done so more accurately and benefitted from some serious ball carrying by revelations such as Hoskins and Pearson. In the backs there are no surprises, Kyle Rowe continues to impress on the wing and Tom Parton seems to provide a veteran presence despite his tender age. Irish will struggle to stop Quins’ attack but as has been shown by Sale and Saracens this season, it can be contained. There are two areas where this is key, the midfield and in the pack. In the midfield Janse Van Rensburg and Rona are tasked with the two pronged threat of Esterhuizen’s power and Northmore’s pace. Linespeed will be crucial and making tough reads on Esterhuizen’s out the back passes will be crucial to stopping the multitude of threats Quins possess out wide. The pack will be tasked with stopping Quins getting front foot ball. This is less challenging than the midfield battle but it is imperative to dull the blades of Harlequins’ threats.
London Irish have the abilities and the personnel to contain Quins and to score tries a plenty in their own right. However, their season has been marred by some defensive lapses, ill discipline and general inconsistency. Quins have shown that their consistency issues of old are long gone and the side has been totally galvanised by their try-scoring mentality which keeps them in games regardless of the score and time on the clock. For this reason, we can’t write the Londoners off and are backing them to win this in their typical fashion.
Prediction: Harlequins 34 - 28 London Irish
SARACENS VS SALE SHARKS
Sunday 28th November
StoneX Stadium
15:00
The final fixture of Round 9 in the Gallagher Premiership is a tasty matchup between two sides loaded with world-class talent. Sunday’s match will be Alex Sanderson’s first visit back to his old stomping ground since taking over at Sale. Whilst Saracens have enjoyed a much better start to this season, Sale will be eyeing this up as a real opportunity to knock over one of England’s giants, particularly with a full-strength outfit.
Saracens are currently perched 3rd on the ladder having only lost one game this season. However, Mark McCall’s men will still have that bitter taste of blowing a 26 point lead to draw against London Irish in Round 8. For this clash, Sarries get back Vincent Koch, Maro Itoje, Nick Tompkins and Max Malins in the starting lineup after their international duties. Billy Vunipola is also back from a knee injury to bolster an already hefty forward pack. Co-captain Alex Goode takes the reigns at fly-half after Owen Farrell’s injury during the Autumn Nations Series.
Saracens aren’t going to change their style of play for this matchup, instead, they’ll look to do the thing they do best, suffocate their opponents with their defence. The infamous ‘Wolfpack mentality’ in defence will look to quash any ideas Sale have about playing expansive rugby. The pack will look to stamp their authority on this game early with big shots and by attacking the breakdown hard, particularly late in the game knowing that the Sharks have had an issue with fitness levels this season. Sale have also been caught out in games this season with support runners not securing rucks quick enough, the likes of Itoje and the Vunipola brothers will no doubt take any half chances they can to get over the ball and win turnovers.
Bar the injured Manu Tuilagi, and Tom Curry coming off the bench, this is the strongest starting XV for the Sharks. In the forwards, Bevan Rodd returns from his unexpected yet excellent stint with England to start at loosehead, he joins Akker ‘The Warthog’ Van Der Merwe and Nick ‘Sharky’ Schonert to make up a powerful front row. Behind them, the usual South African presence remains with Lood De Jager, JL Du Preez, Jono Ross and Dan Du Preez all starting. Outside of the pack, Raffi Quirke is back in the 9 jersey looking to back up his try-scoring effort against the Springboks a week ago. AJ MacGinty makes his first start since news broke that he will be joining the Bristol Bears at the end of the season, he’ll be looking to deploy the ever-reliable McGuigan and Hammersley in the wide channels.
The Sharks have had a turbulent season to this point, with injuries and unavailabilities, they haven’t had enough consistency in their lineup to string together winning performances. However this side at full strength, as it will be this week, is a force to be reckoned with. This game is an almighty challenge, not many sides visit the StoneX stadium and beat Saracens but Sanderson will know what his side needs to do in order to topple over the 5-time champions. The game plan will be straightforward, win the physical battle and play in the right areas of the field. If Sale can match Sarries up front in open play and at scrum time whilst not overplaying when they’ve got the ball, the likes of Quirke and MacGinty can take half chances given to them.
This is going to be an attritional battle, full of bone-crunching collisions and constant attacks at the breakdown. Both sides will be looking to deploy a territorial kicking game and force mistakes off the back of a smothering defence. Therefore, this game will come down to discipline and key moments, whichever side can limit their penalty count will go a long way in winning this game. I give Saracens the slight edge, purely because of their squad’s experience in these types of games.
Prediction: Saracens 25 - 22 Sale Sharks