Gallagher Prem: Round 18 Matchday Preview
BRISTOL BEARS vs WASPS RUGBY
Friday 25th February 2022
Ashton Gate Stadium
19:45
Whilst the Bears are highly unlikely to make a run for a playoff position, Wasps are well in the hunt and sit in the middle of the congested chasing pack, only four points adrift of 4th place. Every point is hugely significant for Lee Blackett’s men from here on out, especially away from home where they’ve struggled this season only winning 2 of their 7 ties. Wasps have had Bristol’s number over recent years with the Bears having only won 1 of their last 15 games in this matchup.
After Pat Lam’s blockbuster seven-year contract was signed just weeks before this season, the expectation was that the Bears could once again challenge for the title. What we’ve seen from Bristol since has been frustrating and frankly mediocre. Small flickers of hope that this side could make a charge to the finish line emerged after back to back wins in Rounds 13 & 15, but defeats against London Irish and Worcester in the last fortnight have somewhat put the nail in the coffin for Bristol’s Premiership ambitions. The goal from here on out will be building partnerships and giving their younger crop of players more exposure at the top level. This week, Pat Lam has wielded the axe and made 9 changes to starting lineup from last week’s loss against Worcester. In the pack, Max Lahiff, Chris Vui and Steven Luatua are the only survivors. Dave Attwood crucially returns to the squad this week to start at lock with the likes of Harry Thacker, Jake Heenan, Jake Woolmore and Joe Joyce all promoted from their bench stints last week. Tiff Eden is preferred this week over Callum Sheedy who is demoted to the bench, outside of him Antoine Frisch pairs Semi Radradra in the centres. The final two changes sees Niyi Adeolokun return on the wing and Henry Purdy at fullback.
After starting their season with only 4 wins from 11 games in the league, Wasps form in the new year has been superb. Whilst their four-game win streak was ended by Harlequins last week, their hot streak over recent months has them firmly in the fight for a playoff position. With 3rd and 9th in the league only separated by 7 points, every point gained by each one of those teams is vital in the remaining 9 Rounds. As Wasps are starting to welcome back some of their big guns from injury, there’s high hopes this Lee Blackett’s side can replicate their efforts of two seasons ago and push for a spot in the final. Lee Blackett has made three changes to the lineup from last week’s trip the Stoop, all of which come in the forwards. After Tom Cruse picked up an injury last week Gabe Oghre starts at hooker with Michael Van Vuuren covering on the bench. Captain Joe Launchbury is back in the starting lineup after he was away with England last week. Jack Willis’ return off the bench last week was highly anticipated and in just over 40 minutes of action, he recorded 15 Carries and 2 Turnovers, enough to earn him the 7 jersey this week.
The reverse fixture in Round 2 saw Wasps put the Bears to the sword on route to a 44-8 drubbing at the CBS Arena. This time around, Wasps have all to play for whilst Bristol are essentially playing for pride. The turnover battle in this game is going to be pivotal, Wasps have scored the most tries after winning a turnover in the Premiership this season with a staggering 25% of their tries coming off a turnover. Bristol rank 2nd in that regard with 24% of their scores originating from a turnover. Both of these sides are also two of the worst in terms of missed tackles this season. So putting those together, this game will hinge on which team can win more turnover ball to launch attacks from and which defence will be more resilient. Now, whilst it’s obvious one player can’t win you a game, Jack Willis’ impact on this Wasps side is monumental. In the 35 minutes he featured last week, he made 15 Carries, 7 Tackles and 2 Turnovers with Wasps winning that period 21-10. With Willis expected to get 60+ minutes this week, I expect his ability to win turnovers to play a big role in getting Wasps a vital away win.
Prediction: Bristol Bears 24 - 30 Wasps
SALE SHARKS vs LONDON IRISH
Friday 25th February 2022
AJ Bell Stadium
19:45
When these two sides squared off in a thrilling 31-31 draw back in Round 2, there were high hopes from both sets of fans that come to the back end of the season, their sides would be fighting for a playoff spot. Fast forward 5 months and here we are with both inside four points of 4th place. London Irish will be looking to snap their poor run of form against the Sharks, the Exiles haven’t won in this matchup across their last nine encounters.
Sale are another one of those sides that have experienced a mid-season resurgence and find themselves firmly on the long list of sides that are just a few points shy of the top 4. Alex Sanderson’s men have won four games on the bounce and are perched just four points off a playoff spot in 7th. What also flies under the radar is that they have only lost one game at the AJ Bell over the past 12 months in all competitions. Their attack has been at the forefront of their current winning streak, the Sharks have averaged over 32 points in the past four fixtures. It’s no coincidence that Sale’s winning run has come as the likes of Faf De Klerk, Rafi Quirke and Manu Tuilagi have all returned to the side. Those three, in particular, have been instrumental as of late but with Manu Tuilagi absent this week, they’ll have to ensure the standards are maintained.
Sanderson has opted for just 4 changes to the starting XV from last week’s thrilling one-point victory over Northampton. In the pack, Simon McIntyre starts at loosehead with Ross Harrison moving to the bench. Springbok Lood De Jager and fellow South African Jean-Luc Du Preez form an all-new pairing at lock, Du Preez’s move from the blindside flank means that Jono Ross moves across and Ben Curry starts at openside. The only change to the backline sees World Cup winner Faf De Klerk start ahead of Raffi Quirke.
After starting the season with only one win from their first eight games, the Exiles have been in sensational form up until now. They have recorded wins in five of their last seven Premiership fixtures and come into this week off back-to-back wins over Bristol and Saracens. Declan Kidney has described this trip as “one of the toughest away fixtures in the Premiership calendar”, needless to say, that a win this week would be monumental for the Exiles.
Declan Kidney has opted for five changes from last week’s last-ditch win over Saracens. The pack features three changes, both locks are replaced with Chunya Munga and Rob Simmons featuring this week as Nott and Coleman were both injured last week. Tom Pearson’s time in England camp meant that he was unavailable last week but he returns at openside after not being selected for England’s Six Nations clash against Wales. In the centres, Benhard Janse Van Rensburg has been moved to the bench with Terrence Hepetema starting at 12. Lucio Cinti is the final change, he replaces Kyle Rowe on the right-wing.
This game is set up to be an enticing encounter. Sale have been arguably the best side in the Premiership over the past month, whilst the Exiles boast offensive firepower that few sides have. Alex Sanderson put it perfectly this week when he said “London Irish attack the game in the last quarter better than the first. They are a very dangerous team when others get tired”. An issue for the Sharks early in the season was fatigue late in games, which seems to have been ironed out since the new year and it must stay that way if they are to beat the Exiles this week. My doubts about London Irish are all in the defensive department, their performances in that area have been inconsistent this season. Whilst they have attacking weapons all over the park, it’s still the defensive issues that worry me this week. With Sale in scorching form and at the AJ Bell, where they don’t lose often, I believe the Sharks will come out on top.
Prediction: Sale Sharks 29 - 28 London Irish
WORCESTER WARRIORS vs HARLEQUINS
Friday 25th February 2022
Sixways
19:45
These two sides have been on opposite ends of the table over recent years. That fact remains true this season as Quins sit in 3rd with Worcester rooted in 12th place and essentially out of playoff contention. However, the Warriors have had Harlequins’ number as of late winning 6 of their last 11 clashes against the Londoners including 4 in a row at Sixways. In fact, Harlequins haven’t beaten the Warriors at Sixways in over five years, a statistic that I’m sure Steve Diamond will have no intention of changing.
The Warriors’ win over Bristol last round was their first since Round 10, it was also Steve Diamond’s first since taking charge. It’s been another lousy season for Worcester with the club sitting in 12th having only won four Premiership games. Once again the task is to rebuild, I believe that Steve Diamond is more than capable of achieving that goal in the near future and can turn the club around. We saw glimpses in last week’s win that were promising, the first goal for the Warriors is to start making Sixways a fortress and last week was a positive step in that direction.
As they search for successive victories for the first time since 2020, Dimes has opted for just 4 changes to the starting XV, three of which come in the backs. The sole change to pack is an important one with club captain Ted Hill replacing Matt Kvesic in the back row. Elsewhere, Duhan Van Der Merwe’s Scotland duties mean that Alex Hearle moves out of the centres onto the wing. With Ashley Beck also injured, Seb Atkinson and Ollie Morris form an all-new midfield partnership. Jamie Shillcock’s absence forces the final switch with Noah Heward filling in at fullback.
Harlequins’ frightful losing streak ended last week as they overcame Wasps at the Stoop, prior to that they had lost three Premiership fixtures on the bounce. The question going into this season for Quins was how well could they handle business without the likes of Marcus Smith, Joe Marler, Alex Dombrandt and Joe Marchant through the international windows. So far they’ve certainly looked like a completely different side across the last month, but last week set down a big marker.
This week, three changes to the lineup have been made, all of which have been forced. Joe Marler is back with England this week for their clash with Wales meaning that Simon Kerrod starts in the 1 jersey. Luke Wallace’s impressive performance last week was marred by injury meaning Tom Lawday comes into the back row. The final change sees Louis Lynagh start on the wing, initially, Joe Marchant was set to play but Manu Tuilagi’s midweek injury has now propelled Marchant into England’s squad.
Harlequins without their England internationals have certainly looked vulnerable, their attack hasn’t flowed and the defensive issues have been magnified. Last week was a big improvement but without Joe Marler, they have to ensure this week that they don’t fall back to the level of their previous three performances. Whilst the resilience shown in Worcester’s win last week was impressive, the loss of Beck, Van Der Merwe and Shillcock is significant. I believe Quins is a big step up from Bristol and that the Warriors won’t be able to cope well enough defensively, especially given the fact that they are one of the most ill-disciplined sides in the Premiership.
Prediction: Worcester Warriors 21 - 31 Harlequins
LEICESTER TIGERS vs GLOUCESTER RUGBY
Saturday 26th February
Welford Road
15:00
Welford Road is set to host one of the most anticipated matchups of the Premiership season. The top of the table Tigers will be setting their sights on beating Gloucester once again having beaten them at Kingsholm in round 2. Gloucester have developed into a different side since they opened the season with those two consecutive losses, and are coming into this one fresh off a bye week. As the top 4 race keeps getting tighter, this clash becomes even more crucial. The Cherry & Whites retain a whole host of Internationals this week and will be hoping it’ll be enough to beat a Tigers side that continues to boast incredible depth.
Steve Borthwick’s side have hardly missed a beat this season, and they have done so seamlessly regardless of personnel changes. Navigating through the Six Nations window so far without the likes of Genge, Chessum, Youngs and Ford the Midlands men have continued their industrious performances. The Tigers success has largely been due to their next man up mentality and the depth that Steve Borthwick has within his ranks. This week Ashton makes his first start, sending Harry Potter to the bench. Young Jack Van Poortvliet also starts ahead of Player-Coach Richard Wigglesworth. The pack also sees two changes, with James Whitcombe favoured at loosehead to Francois Van Wyk. Tommy Reffell drops to the bench as Hanro Liebenberg is chosen to Captain the side from the 7 jersey. Despite the Six Nation absentees and a few major injury setbacks, the Tigers squad enjoys consistent selection and an ability to perfectly execute their ruthless gameplan. Gloucester will be a tough side to break down, but Leicester are equally watertight and possess potent weapons such as the likes of Nadolo and Dan Kelly.
Gloucester, fresh off their bye week, will be looking to avenge their Round 2 loss at Kingsholm and set the record square with the Tigers. George Skivington’s men have been simply fantastic for the majority of this season and will be looking to add to their significant scalp list and get back into 4th. Adam Hastings storms back into the lineup and pairs up with Charlie Chapman, also a starting lineup returnee. England call-up Mark Atkinson is available and starts at 12 alongside Tom Seabrook. The trusted back three of Thorley, Carreras, and Moyle fill out and Louis Rees-Zammit freshly released from the Wales squad will be eager to make a cameo impact. The Forwards welcome back Val Rapava-Ruskin in an otherwise unchanged 8. They will be getting through a mountain of defensive work, but if they want to beat Leicester the key will be their ball-carrying ability in attack. The likes of Reid, Alemanno and Clarke need to help out the industrious Ackermann in getting this team on the front-foot and maintaining possession so they can put pressure on Leicester’s equally arduous defence.
In a battle that will undoubtedly be played out in the forwards, the team that wins the collisions will certainly be in good stead for the win. Both teams have a good track record of winning the physicality battle, so this is set to be a classic. The Tigers with home advantage and a slight edge in individual matchups looks set to continue their winning ways and cement their role at the top.
Prediction: Leicester Tigers 25 - 20 Gloucester
NEWCASTLE FALCONS vs BATH RUGBY
Saturday 26th February
Kingston Park
15:00
Two sides that have had seasons to forget up until this point square off in a match where pride is the only thing on the line. The Falcons sit 11th on the ladder whilst Bath are fixed at the bottom. The form of these two sides reflects their positions in the table with Newcastle on a 6 game losing streak, and Bath on a 3 game slide. For this week, plenty of young talent will be on display as both clubs look to develop their squads for next season.
The Falcons will be eager to dust themselves of after last week’s heartbreaking loss to Exeter. With Mark Wilson’s shock retirement being announced in the week, the Falcons put up a valiant effort and were unfortunate not to come away with the win, even with 14 men for most of the game. If the Falcons are able to play at the same level they did last week, it would take a mighty effort from Bath to beat them. With that being said, just two changes to the starting side have been made this week by Dean Richards. In the front row, Adam Brocklebank is moved to the bench after a difficult week with Mark Tampin coming in at tighthead, Trevor Davison’s dual ability allows him to shift to loosehead prop. Callum Chick’s red card last week landed him a 3-week suspension, Scottish international Gary Graham comes in at number 8 in his place.
The outcome of Bath’s season has been inevitable for a number of weeks now. The West-Country side have had a dreadful season and sit in dead last, 10 points adrift of the nearest competitors. There were signs of life when Stuart Hooper’s side recorded back to back wins in Rounds 13 & 14 but since then have lost three straight and conceded over 40 points in two of those. However, what Bath fans can take away from the opening 17 rounds is that their future is bright with the likes of Max Ojomoh, Orlando Bailey and Ewan Richards all bursting onto the scene. With those players still early on in their development, the focus for the rest of the season will be continuing to entrust the youngsters and provide them with even more invaluable experience.
The changes have been rung this week with 6 being made from last week’s narrow loss to Leicester. The front row remains the same but an all-new second-row pairing sees Ewan Richards and Mike Williams link up. In the back row, Josh Bayliss is promoted from the bench to replace Taulupe Faletau on the blindside flank, Faletau was called up for Wales’ Six Nations clash with England. Mile Reid also returns from a long-term shoulder injury to captain the side in the 7 jersey. In the backs, Max Ojomoh has a new companion in the centres as Max Clark starts ahead of Jonathan Joseph. Two big inclusions also feature on the bench with Sam Underhill and Joe Cokonasiga returning from injury.
I think it’s fair to say that this isn’t the most anticipated matchup of the round. We expect a low scoring affair, as it tends to be at Kingston Park, with both sides not renowned for their attacking execution. Ultimately, last week’s performance from the Falcons has done enough to convince me that they should win this game, especially at Kingston Park.
Prediction: Newcastle Falcons 22 - 20 Bath Rugby
NORTHAMPTON SAINTS vs EXETER CHIEFS
Sunday 27th February 2022
Franklins Gardens
13:00