Gallagher Prem: Round 16 Matchday Preview
High-Scoring expected at Ashton Gate
BRISTOL BEARS vs LONDON IRISH
Friday 11th February
Ashton Gate Stadium
19:45
Fireworks are set to be on full display in Friday night’s clash between Bristol and London Irish as these two attacking-minded teams go head to head at Ashton Gate. Both sides’ attacking prowess was on show in their Round 7 battle with a combined 78 points scored as the Bears won 45-33 at the Brentford Community Stadium. London Irish will be hoping to spoil Bristol’s recent winning run and achieve their first victory over the Bears since 2009.
Pat Lam’s side seem to have shaken off their poor form from the first half of the season having won four straight fixtures, all with a bonus point. Since the turn of the new year, the Bears have looked reinvigorated. Over their last four games Bristol are averaging over 37 points per game, they look to have rediscovered their explosiveness in attack but the question is, can they maintain it for the rest of the season. In their bid to do so, Pat Lam has made six changes to the starting lineup from last week’s win over Newcastle. Two of those changes come in the front row with Yann Thomas replacing Jake Woolmore at loosehead and Harry Thacker starting at hooker over Bryan Byrne. Dave Attwood’s absence means that Chris Vui shifts from the blindside flank to the second row with captain Steven Luatua back to fill the vacancy at 6. The final change up front sees Sam Jeffries start ahead of Dan Thomas at openside. Tom Whiteley moves back into his familiar scrum-half position after starting at 10 last week, that move comes as Ioan Lloyd returns to partner Whiteley at 10. Luke Morahan is unavailable after picking up an injury early on last week so Henry Purdy moves to fullback and Alapati Leiua starts on the wing.
The Bears are flying high at the minute and the confidence in the group is being reflected in their performances. This week they’ll face a team that have handed in inconsistent defensive performances this season. So, with the Bears attack looking back to what it was of old, there’s another good chance that they explode offensively in this game, especially considering London Irish are without some key leaders in defence.
The Exiles are another one of those teams that have been hot and cold all season. Irish only have 5 wins but are only 8 points adrift of a playoff spot. Last week they weren’t able to back up their impressive win over Exeter in Round 14 as they lost in disappointing fashion to Gloucester. Nevertheless this week is an excellent chance to get back on the horse and potentially move as high as 6th on the table. Declan Kidney has made four changes from last week’s starting XV, most notably, Agustin Creevy returns at hooker after serving a 3 week ban, the Argentine will be hoping to add to his league leading 9 tries on the season. In the backrow, club captain Matt Rogerson is unavailable forcing Olly Cracknell to fill the vacant 6 jersey and Sean ‘The Tullow Tank’ O’Brien gets another start at number 8. In the backs, Terrence Hepetema and Benhard Janse Van Rensburg partner for the first time in the centres this season with Lucio Cinti absent and Curtis Rona being deployed off the bench. The final change sees England Under 20s flyer Henry Arundell start at fullback after his Man of The Match performance against Scotland U20 last week.
As mentioned earlier, these two sides have serious attacking firepower. Both sides can also be highly vulnerable defensively so this game is set up to be an intruiging affair. With Bristol in white-hot form combined with the fact that London Irish will be without Matt Rogerson, Tom Pearson and Curtis Rona in their starting lineup, the Bears are expected to win this game. For me, this could swing either way with both looking to trade punches throughout, but I’m starting to believe that Bristol are regaining their form of last year and therefore should be able to win this game at home.
Prediction: Bristol Bears 33 - 27 London Irish
Thriller in the East Midlands Derby!
LEICESTER TIGERS vs NORTHAMPTON SAINTS
Friday 11th February
Welford Road
19:45
The East Midlands derby is set to be an enthralling encounter as the Saints look to avenge their 29 point loss to the Tigers earlier in the season. Whilst Leicester have clearly been the better of the two this season, Northampton have had huge success in this matchup over recent years, winning three of their last four games against the Tigers at Welford Road. With both sides in the top three for quickest ‘Average Ruck Speed’ this season, we are in for another attack-dominated contest under the Welford Road lights.
The Tigers snapped their two game losing skid last week with a comfortable 36-16 win over the Worcester Warriors. Steve Borthwick will now hope his side can build up another winning run and having not lost at home all season, the Tigers are favoured by most to get their second consecutive win. Only two changes have been made to the starting lineup from last week’s victory over the Warriors. In the pack, Tommy Reffell is the only change as he replaces George Martin which allows captain Hanro Liebenberg to return to his more familiar 6 jersey. Nemani Nadolo returns from injury to make his first appearance of 2022, he starts in favour of Hosea Saumaki on the blindside wing. Another notable change to the matchday 23 sees Chris Ashton on the bench after it was announced in the week that he has signed a short-term deal with the Tigers.
Leicester’s Round 7 win over their Midlands rivals was mightily impressive and arguably their best attacking performance of the season. The Tigers were able to dominate in the collision, generate lightning quick ball and ultimately capitalise on a Northampton defence that was on it’s heels for most of the game. This time around, Borthwick’s focus will be on the defensive end. Although a 29 point win is impressive, the Tigers conceded 26 points, their 2nd most of the season. Also expect Leicester to turn to their set-piece often in this game, the Saints have had some real issues at the scrum and defending against the lineout drive this season which could become a real issue against a Leicester pack with one of the best set-pieces in Europe.
The Saints have continued their rollercoaster form throughout the season but are currently riding on a high having won back to back away games in the Premiership coming into Round 16. Last week’s bye has given Chris Boyd’s side a crucial chance to work on different combinations with their key internationals absent. Only two changes have been made from the Saints’ Round 14 win over Worcester and both come in the backline. One of the different combinations mentioned will be George Furbank at fly-half, he replaces Dan Biggar who is away on Wales duty. The other change sees South African flyer Courtnall Skosan return from injury to replace Tom Collins on the wing. Skosan will be looking to add to his impressive try scoring record this season as he needs only one more to join Agustin Creevy and Max Malins at the top of the try scoring list. The Saints have proven that they can be an incredibly dangerous attacking side. With Alex Mitchell pulling the strings, the Saints have the ability to pick teams apart and it’s largely down to two things; Having the quickest ruck speed in the Premiership and having constant runners in motion to force defenders into making split second defensive decisions. So whilst we know the Saints can set the scoreboard alight, the defence and set-piece are their achilles heel. Northampton have the fewest dominant tackles of any side this season with a staggeringly low 38. To put that into context, Leicester made 12 dominant tackles just last week. Given that they aren’t able to stop teams getting over the gainline very well, they find themselves backtracking in defence and therefore getting caught out of position too often. This week, they won’t be able to win this game unless they find a way to compete in the contact area, that means maintaining an excellent linespeed but most importantly, driving players back in the tackle to slow down the Tigers ruck speed.
With the key to this game being whether Northampton can win collisions to slow Leicester’s ruck speed down, I have to back the Tigers. The Saints defence has looked vastly improved over the past two rounds, but the hot and cold nature of this side doesn’t convince me that those defensive efforts will be consistent. Overall, I think Leicester will be able to score points at will through their set-piece and the quick ruck ball they generate off the back of their forwards getting over the gainline.
Prediction: Leicester Tigers 34 - 22 Northampton Saints
EXETER CHIEFS vs GLOUCESTER
Saturday 12th February
Sandy Park
15:00
A west-country derby on Saturday pits the Exeter Chiefs against Gloucester in what is set to be an attritional battle. However, unlike what has been the customary running of the last half decade, it’s not far-fetched to say that Gloucester are favourites for this matchup despite being away from home. This is especially true given that the Sandy Park fortress has been successfully besieged 4 times this season. Furthermore, Exeter won the reverse fixture at Kingsholm so the Cherry & Whites will be even more eager to get one back on their Devon rivals.
Exeter’s squad has been ravaged of their internationals with 8 key players unavailable through International call-ups. Rob Baxter’s side is also coming off a shock home loss to Wasps where the visitors made an epic 19 point comeback to steal the spoils, so the Chiefs will be hurting. The window to make a Premiership playoff run is getting shorter with every week that passes, so if Baxter’s men have any hope of making the postseason they have to start getting the wins now. Gloucester present themselves as one of the sternest challengers in the Prem at the moment, and they are further privileged by the retention of the majority of their key players and the return of a Mark Atkinson, no longer needed in England’s Six Nations preparation for Italy this week.
In order to tackle Gloucester’s potent pack and pragmatic backline, Baxter has made just 2 changes from the team that dominated and fell off against Wasps last week. Don Armand starts at blindside, with Dave Ewers on the bench having dropped out of last week's game moments before kick-off. The other change comes in the beaks with Harvey Skinner dropping to the bench, Tom Hendrickson shifts into 12 and Ian Whitten takes up the 13 jersey. The veteran centre has certainly been called into the starting lineup by Baxter to help solidify that midfield defence. The key to beating Gloucester will be to keep discipline in order, move the point of attack frequently, and win the physicality battle. Gloucester can be beaten if their defence gets stretched and if they have few opportunities to camp in Exeter’s midfield. This is much easier said than done though, because Gloucester currently boast one of the best defences in the league and their Red Zone efficiency is exemplary.
Exeter are going to need a massive performance from their forwards if they are to ‘hold serve’ at home. Last week they showed their class for the majority of the game, but their point-scoring struggles and late defensive lapses let them down.
Gloucester are in serious contention for a top 4 or better finish this season with their campaign going from strength to strength. Their defensive attitude has been exemplary and their attacking efficiency through strike weapons such as their league-leading maul or world-class backline operators, has put them in great stead. During this Six Nations window, they are in an even better position to capitalise on their competitors who are missing key stars, whilst Gloucester have retained 19 of their core 23 players. George Skivington is very conscious of this opportunity and has kept his side motivated, they will be looking to continue building on their performances so they can look to peak at the right time. This week Skivington has opted for consistency making just 3 changes. Val Rapava-Ruskin is surprisingly missing from the matchday 23 after coming off in seemingly a tactical substitution after just 40 minutes last week. Jamal Ford-Robinson takes his place in an otherwise unchanged tight five. Jordy Reid is back on the blindside and Jack Clement returns to a bench impact role. Ben Meehan at halfback is the only change in the backline, with Charlie Chapman dropping to the bench after 2 consecutive starts for the Cherry & Whites.
Gloucester are in such a purple patch of form that we quite comfortably backed them to win away from home against one of the best club sides the Premiership has had in the last decade. Yet, Exeter’s form of late has helped make this prediction because they have not been the clinical side that they came to be renowned for of late. Their struggles in scoring tries being a real limitation to their success this season, and whilst they have improved their defence they still have shown that sometimes they have costly lapses, something that top sides just can’t afford in the Prem nowadays. Nonetheless, winning at Sandy Park is still a monumental task and Gloucester will need to be on the money to come away with a massive scalp.
Prediction: Exeter 19 - 23 Gloucester
SALE SHARKS vs WORCESTER WARRIORS
Saturday 12th February
AJ Bell Stadium
15:00
Worcester will hope to do the double over Sale this season after their upset over the Sharks back in Round 7. However, this time around poses a daunting task considering Sale have only last twice at the AJ Bell in the last 12 months. Alex Sanderson’s men have started 2022 in sensational form and come into this game as heavy favourites, a win would bring them to within just 5 points of the top 4.
The northerners are starting to emerge as a side that can make a run for the playoff positions from the bottom of the table. They have won three of their last four games and have got some timely returns from injury. Five changes have been made to the starting lineup from last week’s dismantling of Harlequins. In the pack, Ewan Ashman is unavailable at hooker so Curtis Langdon gets the nod with Tommy Taylor in the 16 jersey. Dan Du Preez’s injury forces a reshuffle as twin both Jean-Luc Du Preez moves from the second row to fill the void with fellow South African giant Cobus Wiese starting at lock. Faf De Klerk makes his first start in over three months after a sensational bench stint last week. England international Manu Tuilagi also starts having not been called up for England’s trip to Italy, though it is most likely he will be recalled for Round 3 against Wales. The final change sees Sam James replace brother Luke at fullback after he picked up an injury in the second half of last week’s game.
Simply put, without the likes of Willi Heinz and Ollie Lawrence, Worcester have looked a completely different side. Steve Diamond has not been able to fix the Warriors’ issues after taking over two games ago and Worcester have now lost four on the bounce. Their chances of making a late run seem very unlikely so the main focus for the remainder of the year will be to build combinations and give their youngsters more game time. Worcester have made seven changes to their starting XV from last week. Mid-season signing Murray McCallum gets his first Premiership start at loosehead replacing Ethan Waller. Both second rowers are changed as veterans Matt Garvey and Graham Kitchener start instead of Batley and Clegg. In the backrow Ted Hill is joined by Sam Lewis at openside, who makes his first start after a lengthy injury layoff, and Tom Dodd at number 8 who also makes his first start of the season. Fin Smith has been a shining light this season for the Warriors and returns this week to start at fly-half. Outside of him, Alex Hearle moves from the wing into the centres with Tom Howe filling the vacancy at 11.
Sale are the better side on paper, are in excellent form and are playing at the AJ Bell. Those three things. A Worcester win in this game would be the biggest upset of the season but I don’t see it happening. The Sharks have world-class talent littered all over the park and Sanderson will have it drilled into his side that this is a huge opportunity for five points in their bid to make a late push for the playoffs. Expect the Sharks to be far too physical and clinical for a Warriors side still marred by the injury of key players.
Prediction: Sale Sharks 37 - 12 Worcester Warriors
WASPS RUGBY vs BATH RUGBY
Saturday 12th February
Coventry Building Society Arena
15:00
Wasps will be looking to continue their five-game win streak when they host Bath at the CBS Arena on Saturday night. Lee Blackett’s men have been in stellar form having won their last 5 games against Leicester, Toulouse, Saracens and Exeter Chiefs! The Coventry side have been galvanised by the return of key players from their extensive injury list and they have paired this with the excellent mentality that the rest of the squad has shown throughout the season despite missing so many key players.
Wasps’ sizzling-hot form has them primed to make a playoff push with Lee Blackett’s side only 6 points adrift from Harlequins in 4th place. They haven’t played eye-catching rugby during their winning run but they’ve been resilient and snatched victory from the jaws of defeat on a couple of occasions. This week however, Wasps will be expected to hand in a more dominant performance against bottom of the table Bath, a bonus-point win is expected by most. Blackett has made six changes from last week’s last-minute thrilling win over Exeter. Two of those changes come in the front row with Robin ‘Bomber’ Hislop and Gabe Oghre starting at loosehead and hooker respectively after both coming off the bench last week. In the back row, Vaea Fifita and Alfie Barbeary are moved to the bench with James Gaskell and Ben Morris joining Brad Shields this week. Malakai Fekitoa is unavailable this week which gives Sam Spink another chance to start alongside Jimmy Gopperth in the centres. The final change sees Rob Miller start at fullback in Marcus Watson’s absence.
Bath’s blissful two-game win streak was snapped in emphatic fashion by Saracens last week. The most worrying thing about last week’s performance was that Bath missed a whopping 49 tackles, the highest amount for any side in a game this year. With Wasps also having the best gainline success in the Premiership this season, Bath’s defence must improve drastically if they have any chance of winning this game. Stuart Hooper has opted for five changes to the starting lineup from last week. Russian international Valery Morozov gets his first start for the club at loosehead with Cordwell moving to the bench. Impressive teenager Ewan Richards gets a start in the second row after missing out last week, he partners captain Josh McNally. A big change in the back row sees Taulupe Faletau return from injury to make his first appearance of the season from the blindside flank. In the backs, Orlando Bailey returns to start at fly-half, his inclusion means that Max Ojomoh moves back into the centres. Tom De Glanville is still out injured giving Tom Prydie another start at fullback.
Whilst Wasps have opted to rotate some key members of their lineup, they’re still a side in red-hot form and loaded with talent. We think this game may be closer than people think with Bath getting some key members back but ultimately Wasps should be far too strong for Bath.
Prediction: Wasps 31 - 25 Bath Rugby
SARACENS vs HARLEQUINS
Sunday 13th February
StoneX Stadium
13:00
Saracens host their neighbours in the final clash of the Gallagher Prem round 16. These two sides have had some fierce battles over the years, and despite both missing their international contingent, a passionate affair awaits us nonetheless. Unlike recent runnings, this year it is Harlequins that’s ravaged of their internationals, whilst Saracens has retained an elite group of former England stalwarts. Just six points separate the two sides with Saracens sitting in second and Harlequins in fourth. Needless to say that a win for either side would not just entail bragging rights, but a serious scalp in their top four ambitions. The pressure is especially hot on Harlequins given that just 4 points separate them in 4th and the 9th place Sharks.
Saracens have had Harlequins number in the last decade when facing them at home, having won their last 9 games against their London rivals. This time, they’ll have to do it without the likes of Jamie George, Maro Itoje, Nick Isiekwe and Nick Tompkins, however they continue to benefit from the non-call up of former England stalwarts Mako and Billy Vunipola, as well as the retention of star openside Ben Earl. Saracens have opted for just two changes to the starting lineup that crushed Bath a week ago. Callum Hunter-Hill is back in the second row partnering Tom Swinson, causing a slight reshuffle which sees Theo McFarland push to blindside and Andy Christie drop to the bench. The rest of the pack remains unchanged, with Mako Vunipola captaining the side from loosehead, partnered by fellow International Vincent Koch and last week's two-time tryscorer Tom Woolstencroft. Ben Earl and Billy Vunipola are ever present in retaining their 7 and 8 jersey respectively. Rotimi Segun is the second change, with Alex Lewington dropping onto the bench to make space for the league leader in average metres per carry (14.9m). An unchanged halves and midfield pairing sees Ivan Van Zyl, Manu Vunipola, Dom Morris and Alex Lozowski all lineup alongside each other for the third consecutive match. Experienced internationals Maitland and Goode round out the side from the right wing and full back respectively.
Harlequins come into this fixture in what has been a month where the form has slid dramatically. They have lost two games on the trot and have really struggled to put full 80 minute performances of late that have been further weakened by the absence of their mercurial stars. Harlequins are missing Marler, Dombrandt, Smith and Marchant to England duty and it’s unsurprising that they have struggled so much without their spine. Nonetheless, Tabai Matson’s side welcomes back two key figures from the bench this week in South African duo Stephan Lewies and Wilco Louw. Santiago Garcia-Botta also returns to the lineup with Jordan Els dropping to the bench. Young up and comer Matas Jurevicius is also promoted to their starting lineup having made his Prem debut off the bench last week. The last of three changes to the starting XV sees Oscar Beard also promoted from the bench to the starting lineup, taking the place of Louis Lynagh who swaps onto the bench.
Harlequins have long known this season how crucial this period of the season would have been when their stars would get their long-awaited England call ups, so it is time for the other players at the club to step up to the task and put in a big shift. Saracens away has been an Achilles heel fixture for Harlequins so the task is not easy, but a reaction is needed. The pack is much stronger than that named in the last two weeks and if they are to have a chance of beating their rivals, they are going to need to win the battle up front. Saracens have the second highest turnovers per game in the Premiership, and Harlequins rank first in turnovers conceded, so an emphasis on ball retention and aggressively defending their attacking breakdown will be key for them in this match. Despite losing the aforementioned players to England duty, they still have an abundance of try-scoring potential in their side, with Metres made leader Tyrone Green in the side, but it all goes to waste if they are unable to keep possession comfortably.
Harlequins have named a stronger side and have shown that they are never to be counted out when their backs are on the wall, but in this case we don’t see a viable escape route against the methodical side that Saracens is. Sarries themselves have had their own slump of sorts earlier in the year having dropped a home game to Gloucester and then losing to Wasps, but they showed last week that they are back on track and they have a strong mix of experience and dynamic youth that should get the job done at home and solidify their top 4 hopes in second spot.
Prediction: Saracens 35 - 19 Harlequins