Six Nations: Round 2 Matchday Preview
WALES vs SCOTLAND
Saturday 12th February
Principality Stadium
14:15
The Principality Stadium hosts its first Six Nations game of the year when Wales welcome Scotland on Saturday. The two sides are coming into this fixture with grossly different results. The Welsh return home having suffered a clinical beating at the hands of an in-form Ireland, whilst the Scots will be travelling to Cardiff still buzzing from the euphoria of beating England. Wayne Pivac’s side will need to take a significant step if they are to put themselves in contention to be the galvanised Scots. Scotland on the other hand will be looking to go two from two and put themselves in Triple Crown and perhaps even Championship contention.
The Welsh were outclassed last weekend and their performance was subpar. Nonetheless, it should be mentioned that Ireland are a top-quality outfit that will no doubt be competing for the Championship and Wales were without 700 caps worth of experience. Yet, the aim for Pivac should be to make this side competitive and start building on the new and young combinations that this side possess. There are defensive positives that this Welsh side can take into the Scotland game and they’ll look to pair their defensive endeavours to better ball retention so they can inflict some attacking blows. Wales’ 89% tackle success is especially encouraging considering that they only had 40% of possession. If they’re to beat Scotland at the Millenium though, the biggest improvement needs to come on the offensive side of the ball. Their set-piece struggled in Ireland, and that led to a poor platform for the Welsh to build on. They also gave away 5 attacking penalties and turned possession over 16 times in attack.
This week, Wayne Pivac has rung the changes, with 4 changes to the starting XV. Jac Morgan comes in at openside with Taine Basham shifting to the blindisde and Ellis Jenkins dropping out of the matchday squad altogether. Ross Moriarty is also preferred at number 8, so Aaron Wainwright will be limited to bench minutes this week. In the backs, Owen Watkin replaces the injured Josh Adams, and the experienced Alex Cuthbert takes the 14 jersey from Johnny McNicholl. The Welsh will be looking to up their physicality and make life as tough for the visitors. They will know that they do have the gamebreakers to win a game so long as they keep things within striking range - ticking the scoreboard over will be key.
Scotland set their campaign on track with a tough win over England at Murrayfield. Gregor Townsend’s side can take even more confidence in the saying that ‘great sides know how to win ugly’. The Scots played far from their best, yet they managed to stay in the game and then make some decisive blows that ultimately won them the game. Scotland’s defence was impressive. They had a round topping 94% tackle success rate as well as 100% set-piece success. Their attack was clinical, with just 46% of possession and 38% territory, yet they had a round high 2.33 points from their 6 visits in the English 22. Scotland didn’t play their best rugby but they did prove to be serious contenders for the Championship and they’ll be looking to make a statement at the Millenium. The Scots will no doubt be looking for a more dominant performance where they can control possession and territory for longer periods of time, whilst retaining their efficiency and defensive prowess shown at the Millenium.
Gregor Townsend has also made 4 changes to the starting lineup that will take on Wales on Saturday. The front-row rotates completely, with Schoeman, McInally and WP Nel starting whilst Turner, Sutherland and Zander Fagerson all feature from the bench. Jamie Ritchie’s injury sustained against England last week means Sam Skinner gets into the starting lineup and Rory Darge is called on to fill the vacant bench spot. In the backs, Sione Tuipulotu gets the nod and Cam Redpath is called up into the 23 with Sam Johnson dropping out of the matchday squad.
Although the Welsh are a different beast at home and they will be looking to right the wrongs of last week, we can’t predict them to win. Scotland are looking like a mature side that has made incremental improvements and has now consolidated all of their development. The Scots were defensively abrasive and offensively efficient, their ability to strike with so few chances whilst conceding so little to the opposition should put them ahead against Wales even in a close contest, but we’re expecting them to be better in stringing phases together and give Wales another tough afternoon.
Prediction: Wales 18 - 29 Scotland
FRANCE vs IRELAND
Saturday 12th February
Stade de France
16:45
Undoubtedly the matchup of this year's Six Nations when the two form sides in World Rugby face off at the Stade de France, for what could be an early Six Nations Championship decider (sorry, Scotland). Based on form, it's not far-fetched to say that these are two of the best sides in the world facing off this weekend, and though there’s still a lot of Six Nations rugby to be played for, this has the aura of a Championship decider match. Who wins the small percentages will likely come away with victory on the day.
The French, also in egregious International Form, got their campaign started with a niggly Test against Italy which, in the end, they comfortably dealt with. The French have had a turbulent month domestically with COVID ravaging the Top 14 and thus many players having hardly played any rugby prior to the game against Italy. Galthie (himself distanced from the Squad for the Italy game after testing positive for COVID) will however have been happy to see his team move through the gears during the Italy game, with the last quarter showing off the dominance that we’ve come to expect from this French side. Les Bleus know this is a golden opportunity to take down their top challengers, at home, in a year where they are heavy favourites and should be aiming for a Grand Slam. The story of cobwebs or any other factor will be gone come Saturday, they French will be ready.
Galthie has made just two changes to the starting lineup. Francois Cros starts at blindside, with Anthony Jelonch shifting to his preferred openside position and Dylan Cretin drops to the bench. In the backs, Yoram Moefana, who injected a dynamic spark last week, starts in the 12 jersey with Jonathan Danty dropping out of the 23 having sustained an injury. Galthie has also opted for a 6-2 bench split, indicating that his side will be looking to dominate the physicality battle for 80 minutes.
Ireland travel to the Stade de France with the aim of silencing the crowd and upsetting the French at home. The Irish have started their campaign in full steam, with a convincing display against Wales and although they’ll know the difficulty of winning in Paris, they’ll have Galthie’s side x-ray studied before this match. The eye-test from Round 1 of the Six Nations says that Ireland are looking like a formidable side to beat. Their ball-retention and ruck speed is at a level that is beginning to resemble the 2015 All Blacks (the Greatest Side of All Time). Their defence is rock solid, and their attack is relentless. Ireland look like a finished product, and they have a great mix of experience and youth in their side. To beat France, they’ll need to win the physical battle, especially in defence. France thrive when they get go-forward in the tight and later can stretch defences that have exhausted resources to stop France’s inside go-forward. Ireland have the personnel to make dominant collisions in the tight, and they’ll be needed to ensure that France’s halves never have quick and reliable ball to work with.
Andy Farrell’s selection has been quite predictable, with only a forced change meaning that Joey Carbery gets his first Six Nation start. With Jonny Sexton having picked up a hamstring injury in training, the Munster man will be relied upon to run the cutter, something he’s done comfortably from the bench in the majority of his 28 caps. James Ryan takes up captain duty and on the bench, Jack Carty slots into the vacant bench spot. Andy Farrell also welcomes back the power of Iain Henderson on the bench who will no doubt be needed in the latter stages to help counter France’s 6-2 bench split.
Whilst the loss of Sexton was unexpected and voids Ireland of their stalwart fly-half, we called Ireland to win the tournament expecting them to have what it takes to win in France, so the loss of Sexton doesn’t tip the scales in our opinion. Carbery is a quality player and in any case this is a game that will be won in different areas of the field, with Carbery very capable of executing the consequences to the same fine standard that Sexton does.
Prediction: France 23 - 24 Ireland
ITALY vs ENGLAND
Sunday 13th February
Stadio Olimpico
15:00
The Italians host England in Rome on Sunday as both will be looking to bounce back from defeat in Round 1, though they enter this matchup with different moods. The Italians suffered another big loss on the surface, but in between the lines, there has been notable improvement since Kieran Crowley has taken over as Italy coach. They will be looking to put in another industrious effort and make England earn every point. England, on the other hand, have had to deal with an array of criticism from media and fans alike after suffering a narrow defeat to Scotland at Murrayfield. What has angered the fans though is the mediocre quality of rugby played by Eddie Jones’ side over the last 18 months. England did win their last Championship in 2020 after dropping the first game, so they’ll be looking to get their act back together and really flex their muscles against what has looked like a much more fundamentally solid Italy side.
Italy impressed in the opening against France, but the same old story prevailed as they couldn’t quite maintain the tempo for 80 minutes. They gifted a try and conceded one at the hooter of both halves, but were in this game for huge portions. Italy’s improvement has come on the defensive end and that will go a long way to making them more competitive. Yet their attacking struggles, which ultimately put too much pressure on their defence against France, was the inability to maintain possession effectively and make offensive inroads.
Crowley will be looking to build on the positives though, whilst integrating a more efficient attacking arsenal. To do this he has opted for three changes to the starting lineup this week. In the front row, Pietro Ceccarelli is favoured over Tiziano Pasquali. Ceccarelli is highly regarded as one of Italy’s strongest scrummagers and will be looking to cause all sorts of problems for Ellis Genge in that department. A surprising change in the back row sees Abraham Steyn start on the blindside flank over Sebastian Negri after not featuring against France last week. The final change is a forced one as last week’s try-scorer Tommaso Menoncello is ruled out with injury, he is replaced by Federico Mori on the wing.
England’s narrow loss to Scotland depicted 80 minutes of their potential as well as their flaws. For much of the game, England dominated but simply lacked some incisiveness to make winning plays or tick the scoreboard over throughout. In the last 20, their flaws were highlighted. A 10 minute-period where they got bullied physically, lacked leadership and didn’t have the ability to close out the game when things were no longer going their way. Whilst many have viewed those last 20 minutes as an indication of this Eddie Jones and England team being a ‘shambles’, we view it as a strong lesson that they will be able to build on. England have a young side and lost that game due to inexperience in key moments. This week, EJ has rung the changes making 6 overall to the starting XV. Jamie George and Will Stuart slot into the front row alongside Ellis Genge. George will be looking to unleash his dynamic ball-carrying in the loose, whilst Stuart will be under the close eye of Eddie Jones and look to impress in the tight after some mediocre outings of late. Charlie Ewels steps into the engine room shifting Itoje in the backrow, whilst Sam Simmonds switches with Alex Dombrandt who gets the start this week. Tom Curry will once again captain the side for the second time from the openside flank.
The backs see the injection of the exciting Harry Randall at scrum-half to form an electric halfback pairing with Marcus Smith. The English duo are both dynamic game-changers who when given the opportunity will seek to make inroads in lazy or un-set defences. Lastly, Elliot Daly drops to the bench, Joe Marchant shifts to inside center and Jack Nowell occupies the vacant left-wing spot. Slade, Marlins and Steward pick up where they left off at 12, 14 and 15 respectively.
This is shaping up to look like the England side of the future and it boasts a lot of pace and exciting attacking potential. However, England will be wary to lay the platform in the first quarter of the match and make sure to set the groundwork before pulling the trigger on their attacking sets as Italy can be a frustrating side if given the chance to interrupt England’s momentum early on.
There was much about last week’s fixtures to make Italian fans confident and English fans worried going into this game. Many have the feeling that the Italians have a chance of upsetting the English in Rome on Sunday, but we don’t see it that way. England’s game plan will be far different from last week, the inclusion of Randall, Dombrandt and Marchant is hugely exciting and should lead to a more expansive approach from Eddie Jones’ side. Whilst Italy were valiant in defeat last week, we believe that England will get back on track and flex their attacking muscles in what’s expected to be perfect conditions for running rugby on Sunday afternoon.
Prediction: Italy 15 - 41 England