Gallagher Prem: Round 15 Matchday Preview
GLOUCESTER vs LONDON IRISH
Friday 4th February
Kingsholm
19:45
Two of the hottest teams in the Premiership go head to head on Friday night as Gloucester and London Irish square off at Kingsholm. Both sides picked up impressive wins last week and are starting to emerge as serious contenders for the title this season. Gloucester currently sit in 4th whilst London Irish are just 8 points behind them in 6th, both sides are looking to make real strides over this Six Nations period as each have their core squad intact.
George Skivington’s side continues to impress week on week, they’ve now won five of their last six Premiership games and are showing no signs of slowing down. Whilst the Cherry & White’s have been a formidable side for the whole season up to this point, I’m predicting that in these next 5 rounds George Skivington’s men will be pushing Leicester for the top spot. Gloucester will be without Chris Harris, Louis Rees-Zammit and Jonny May for the Six Nations window. Whilst those are three world-class players, Gloucester have shown that it is all about their forwards this season, and they won’t be losing any of their pack during this window.
Five changes have been made to the starting XV from last week’s victorious trip to Newcastle. Upfront, the front row of Rapava-Ruskin, Singleton and Balmain remains the same after yet another dominant display, one change in the engine room sees Argentine International Matias Alemanno return to replace the injured Ed Slater. The only other change to the pack is that Jack Clement starts on the blindside with Jordy Reid unavailable, he joins captain Lewis Ludlow and the red-hot Ruan Ackermann in the back row. Elsewhere, Lloyd Evans moves from fullback into his more familiar fly-half position with Adam Hastings on the bench, Kyle Moyle fills in the vacant fullback spot. The final change sees Georgian international Giorgi Kveseladze start at outside centre with Chris Harris away on Scotland duty.
I’ve lost count of how many times we have sung the praises of this Gloucester forward pack, but I’ll do it once again. This unit, alongside Leicester’s, has been the most dominant in the Premiership this season. What’s more impressive is that before Skivington’s arrival, Gloucester were always a team that struggled with the nuts and bolts but had serious firepower out wide. Now, even with those same weapons in the backline, the forward pack is still the most impressive area of this team. The maul is unstoppable, the work rate from all three levels of the pack is excellent and the skills in the contact area are elite. I’ll sum up with this statistic, three of the top four tacklers in the Premiership this season are Gloucester players (Ludlow, Clarke & Ackermann).
London Irish head into this fixture as one of the most unpredictable and exciting sides. Similar to their opponents for this fixture, they have been in hot-form, and will be retaining all of their key players for the International window. Unlike their opponents, their season has been tumultuous and their performances have been quite erratic. The Exiles have proved that on their day they can beat anyone, yet similarly off their day they are vulnerable. Declan Kidney and Les Kiss will be expecting their side to start stringing together a consistent set of performances and there’s no tougher place to start than at the Kingsholm shed against Gloucester. Nonetheless, the Exiles do have the tools to beat Gloucester. Declan Kidney makes just four changes to the starting XV that beat Exeter last weekend. Juan Martin Gonzalez and Olly Cracknell’s impressive bench cameos have been rewarded with starts in the 7 and 8 jersey. Tom Pearson drops to the bench despite his MOTM performance against the Chiefs and Sean O’Brien out of the matchday 23 altogether. The backs see a minor reshuffle with Lucio Cinti moving inside to the 13 role and Kyle Rowe is back on his right wing after not being selected in the Scotland squad.
Irish will be looking to counter Gloucester’s big pack with their mobile and offloading eight. Quick ruck speed has been Irish’s trademark and it’s not just their breakdown work that earns this important trait, but the abundance of runners that make gainline carries around the ruck area. Hoskins, Coleman, and Cracknell have been exceptional ball-carriers for the Exiles whilst the likes Simmons and Rogerson or Pearson do the dirty work and retain possession ruck after ruck. Beating Gloucester will require this sort of industrial work from the Irish pack, then the likes of Phipps and Jackson are more than capable operators that can orchestrate incisive attacks.
Gloucester vs Irish is set to be one of the games of the season. Both sides have retained the majority of their squads and are only slightly affected by International absences, they are both reliant on their pack's performance for victory, but for completely different reasons. This one will be a close one where momentum and red zone efficiency will likely dictate the winner. Given Gloucester’s home advantage, pragmatic defensive approach and the league's most potent strike weapon - The Cherry & Whites Maul - we’re backing the home side for this one.
Prediction: Gloucester 28 - 24 London Irish
BRISTOL BEARS vs NEWCASTLE FALCONS
Saturday 5th February
Ashton Gate Stadium
14:00
Ashton Gate hosts an intriguing encounter between two sides that are trending in opposite directions. Bristol Bears have won their last three fixtures across the Premiership and Champions Cup, Pat Lam’s side is slowing morphing into the monster they were last season and it’s no coincidence that key players are returning from injury. Meanwhile, Newcastle have had a miserable time of late. The Falcons last win in the Premiership game all the way back in Round 8 which was at the start of November. Since that win, they’ve lost four and drawn one while conceding an average of 34.8 Points per game.
Bristol’s form of late has certainly peaked the interest of Premiership fans as they’ve slowly started to piece together impressive performances. With big wins coming over Stade Francais and Scarlets, Pat Lam’s side are sending warnings to the rest of the league that they could be poised to make a run up the ladder. They’ll be looking for revenge against an out of form Newcastle side who beat the Bears back in Round 5.
Six changes have been made from their demolition of Scarlets a fortnight ago. Max Lahiff gets the start at tighthead prop with Kyle Sinckler in line to start for England in the Calcutta Cup, whilst Dave Attwood comes in at lock as the only other change to the pack. Harry Randall was also named in England’s matchday 23 and has therefore been replaced by veteran Andy Uren at scrum-half. With Callum Sheedy (International Duty), Ioan Lloyd (COVID) and Charles Piutau (Achilles) also unavailable, Pat Lam has been forced to name 3rd choice scrum-half Tom Whiteley at fly-half. Piers O’Conor is the final change, he partners Semi Radradra in the centres with Same Bedlow injured.
Newcastle look as if they’re slowly slipping into the same cycle they endured two seasons ago. After a bright start to the season, they simply haven’t been at the races for most games across the past two months. Dean Richards’ side seem to be void of all confidence and haven’t been able to execute the basics well enough in games like they did in the first months of the season. Too many errors, ill-discipline and moments of madness have been heavily featured throughout Newcastle’s wretched five-game stretch in the Premiership, something needs to change quickly if they are to avoid the same fate of previous years.
Dean Richards has only opted for three changes in his starting lineup from last week’s disappointing loss to Gloucester. The only change to the pack is the Scottish international Gary Graham starts on the blindside flank to replace Phillip Van Der Walt. In the backline, Will Haydon-Wood is promoted from the bench to take the reigns at fly-half, he swaps with Brett Connon who moves to the bench. The final change sees off-season signing Nathan Earle start in the 11 jersey with Mateo Carreras unavailable. With not many changes to the side, Richards must be confident that he can quickly reinstall belief into this side without hitting the panic button. The Falcons simply need to revert back to what they do best, don’t give away cheap ball, limit the penalty count, and force the opposition to make mistakes.
On the surface, the form of these two teams over the past month should indicate a comfortable Bristol win, especially at Ashton Gate. However, having a 3rd choice scrum-half as your starting fly-half is incredibly worrying. Pair that with the absence of Kyle Sinckler, Harry Randall, Callum Sheedy and Charles Piutau from last week, this game could be a real banana peel for the Bears. Whilst I think it will be a closer game than many think, I simply can’t back Newcastle away from home, the Falcons are in a big rut as of now and I don’t think this is the week they break out of it.
Prediction: Bristol Bears 29 - 23 Newcastle Falcons
EXETER CHIEFS vs WASPS RUGBY
Saturday 5th February
Sandy Park
14:30
Exeter against Wasps on Saturday afternoon promises to be a captivating affair with both sides sitting precariously in the middle of the table. The Six Nations period is make or break for both of these teams, Wasps are 13 points from a playoff berth but only 11 ahead of 12th place, the Chiefs are only two points better off. One noteworthy statistic ahead of this game is that Wasps have only won on one of their last fourteen visits to Sandy Park. With the two only split on the table by two points, this game has added importance and a loss would be damaging to both sides’ playoff hopes.
The Chiefs sit in an unfamiliar position at the halfway mark of the season. Often at this point in the season, the Chiefs are leading the way at the top of the table, but instead this year they are nine points adrift of a playoff spot and are desperate to start a winning run. This week, the depth in their squad will be tested once again with availabilities across the board. Six changes have been made by Rob Baxter from last week’s defeat against London Irish. Alec Hepburn returns from a 3-week suspension and has been immediately thrust into the starting XV at loosehead. With Jonny Gray and Sam Skinner away with Scotland, Jannes Kirsten shifts from the flank into the second row to partner highly touted lock Dafyyd Jenkins who makes his first Premiership start. In the backrow Richard Capstick returns to start at openside whilst Argentine Santiago Grondonna starts at number 8. In the backline, Tom Hendrickson starts at outside-centre with Ian Whitten unavailable and Josh Hodge replaces Stuart Hogg at fullback.
In the last two rounds of the Premiership, Wasps have knocked off 1st and 2nd on the ladder and Lee Blackett’s side will be looking to add another big scalp this week. It’s clear that there has been a big defensive step up from Wasps in the new year, and it’s why they’re beginning to look like a real threat. You don’t beat sides like Toulouse, Leicester and Saracens in the space of a month without being incredibly sound defensively.
This week, Wasps have the opportunity to deploy what is arguably their strongest side of the season. The Tight five remain the same as last week with West, Cruse and Alo in the front row and captain Joe Launchbury, who makes his second start off the back of ACL surgery, partnering Elliot Stooke in the second row. Alfie Barbeary returns from England camp after not being selected for England’s clash with Scotland, he is part of a monstrous back row this week with Vaea Fifita and Brad Shields alongside him. Robson and Atkinson start in the halves yet again looking to keep growing their partnership. The only change to the backline sees All Black Malakai Fekitoa start outside Jimmy Gopperth in the centres in favour of Sam Spink.
No matter the form of the Chiefs, Sandy Park is an incredibly difficult venue for visiting sides and Exeter use that to their advantage. However, the number of absences in the Chiefs squad along with a full-strength Wasps side is why I’m backing Lee Blackett’s men to snatch the win in the South-West. Wasps have a clear edge in the back five of the scrum and in games against Exeter, you need to beat them in the physical battle and at the ruck. If Wasps can limit their unforced errors and penalty count, I believe their strength in the pack will be enough to beat the Chiefs.
Prediction: Exeter Chiefs 20 - 22 Wasps
LEICESTER TIGERS vs WORCESTER WARRIORS
Saturday 5th February
Welford Road
15:00
The Tigers and Warriors are both looking to snap losing runs in the Premiership coming into this contest. After starting the season with 11 straight wins, Leicester have since lost back to back games in the Premiership to Sale and Wasps. They’ll be eager to reset and get back to winning way this week at home against a struggling Worcester side. Amidst a host of staffing changes for the Warriors, their poor form still continues in the league having lost three straight games. Leicester haven’t lost at Welford Road in the Premiership since Round 21 of last season and Steve Borthwick will have no intention of changing that.
Only three changes have been made from last week’s Tigers side that fell to Sale. Hanro Liebenberg makes his first start since returning from an injury layoff after coming off the bench last week. He is part of a very formidable back row with Geroge Martin on the blindside flank and Springbok Jasper Wiese at the base of the scrum. Hosea Saumaki starts on the wing as the only change in the backline as Guy Porter shifts to outside centre in Matt Scott’s absence. After dominating the majority of last week’s game, the Tigers will rue how it slipped away from them. After Freddie Burns’ surprise substitution in only the 53rd minute, Sale mounted their comeback with the Tigers making uncharacteristic errors to gift the Sharks opportunities. The bitter taste will no doubt be a motivating factor this week and Leicester will be on a mission to redeem themselves.
The start to life under Steve Diamond did not pan out as planned for the Warriors in last week’s 29 -13 loss to the Saints. On the surface a 16 point loss is never good but upon closer inspection, there were positive signs for the Warriors. Worcester were undone by individual mistakes defensively throughout the game, but aside from those they showed spirit as a unit in that area and Dimes knows that if they can cut out those moments they’ll improve rapidly. The second half also showed that this side have the building blocks in attack, they simply need to be more clinical and accurate in the red zone. Four changes have been made for this week, Rory Sutherland and Duhan Van Der Merwe will be away with Scotland for the next two months so for this week Ethan Waller and Alex Hearle start at Loosehead prop and winger respectively. Mercurial fly-half Fin Smith is unavailable this week after picking up an injury in last week’s loss to Northampton, as a result, Billy Searle moves into 10 from fullback with Jamie Shillcock returning to fill the vacant position. Andrew Kitchener’s absence sees the final change as Justin Clegg takes his place to partner Joe Batley in the second row.
This week should be much more straightforward for the Tigers than the last two. At home against an out of form Worcester who are still adjusting to life under Steve Diamond should be fairly simple for Steve Borthwick’s men. Leicester should be too strong up front and have the defensive capability in the backline to quash Worcester’s attacking raids. Whilst I do think Worcester have the talent to keep this game much closer than Round 5’s 45 point to the Tigers, I’d be shocked if they managed to win at Welford Road this week.
Prediction: Leicester Tigers 34 - 22 Worcester Warriors
SARACENS vs BATH RUGBY
Saturday 5th February
StoneX Stadium
15:00
Bath visit the StoneX in pursuit of their third consecutive Premiership win. After not winning any games in the first half of the season, Bath have gone back to back against Worcester and Harlequins and will be looking to capitalise on the International-less period. This week, they face Saracens, who having hit the ground running in their return to the top-flight, have struggled for form in recent weeks, having lost to Gloucester at home and Wasps last weekend. Nonetheless, Saracens have retained the majority of their top players and will be looking to get back to winning ways in front of a home crowd.
Saracens continue their campaign without Director of Rugby Mark McCall, who has temporarily stepped down on medical leave. The absence of their DoR is significant, but the infrastructures that he has put in place mean this side is fully capable of stringing quality performances together, such is a testament to his work. The front-row is unchanged from last week's close loss to Wasps, Vunipola, Woolstencroft and Koch will pack down with McFarland and Swinson in the engine room behind them. McFarland’s shift into the Second Row means recent Scotland call-up Andy Christie starts at blindside alongside the everpresent Ben Earl and Billy Vunipola. In the halves, Ivan Van Zyl and Manu Vunipola combine once more whilst Dom Morris fills in at 12 for Wales departed Nick Tompkins. Lozowski wears his usual 13 jumper and will be a crucial cog in the Saracens attack as ever. Lewington, Maitland and co-captain Alex Goode round out the starting XV.
Saracens will apply their pressure game on Bath and see how the young and heavily injury-depleted west-Country club copes. Despite Bath winning their last two games, their performances have not been exceptional and Sarries will be looking to make sure they put this game to the sword early.
Bath will be eager to carry on the jubilation of last week’s win at the Rec and try and build some momentum going into the Six Nations window. Bath do have some positives this season, with many of their young players growing and others really establishing themselves as quality Premiership players. This week Stuart Hooper has had to make 2 changes to last week’s starting XV but he has kept the core group that brought the club just their second win in 2021/22. Cordwell, Du Toit and Rae form an unchanged front-row tasked with facing two seasoned internationals. Bath's trio scrum ascendancy a week ago was crucial in their win and they’ll be looking to hold their own against Saracens in order to give their team reliable set-piece ball. Captain Josh McNally starts with Will Spencer in the row, whilst Mike Williams shifts out to blindside flanker. South African back-row Jaco Coetzee starts his first game at Openside for Bath and new loan recruit Nathan Hughes gets his second consecutive start following an inspired Man of the Match performance a week ago. The backs lineup exactly as they did a week ago with Max Ojomoh continuing his stellar campaign with a second straight start in the 10 jersey. He’s been a real revelation this year and has been a shining light for Bath despite their tough season. Last week he shone whilst playing out of position in the 10 jersey, a testament to his maturity and skill being able to guide this team despite his tender age. He’ll be looking to guide them to another victory this week and has Cam Redpath, another stellar youngster, outside him to help shoulder that playmaking load.
Whilst Bath have shown incremental improvements in their last two Premiership outings, we have not seen any major improvement that tips the scales in their favour. They still do possess quality individuals all over the park, but this week we fear that their quality deficit in the pack will ultimately dictate the result. Saracens are class and their blip won’t last long, they’ll be back to their ruthless best starting from this weekend.
Prediction: Saracens 32 - 16 Bath
HARLEQUINS vs SALE SHARKS
Sunday 6th February
Twickenham Stoop
13:00
The reigning champs face off against Sale just a week after suffering a loss to bottom-dwellers Bath. Sale on the other hand come into this fixture from an encouraging comeback win against current table toppers, Leicester Tigers. Quins have lost a whole host of key players to England duty as well as a few being rested for this fixture. On the other hand, Sale are without captain Tom Curry but retain all their other core players including Raffi Quirke and the return of Faf De Klerk and Manu Tuilagi from the bench. Quins will likely be without their key players for the rest of the Six Nations so they must find a way to win games without their key players, on the other hand, Sale will be hungry to capitalise on depleted teams like Quins and look to get just their 6th win of the season.
Alex Sanderson is finally getting a bit of consistency in his selection. He’s welcoming back a few key players this round but it’s the continuity in the last few weeks that’s been more important. The only change to the pack this week is Sam Dugdale who replaces Ben Curry after he went off with a head injury last week. In the backs, Raffi Quirke is back from England camp and features at half-back pairing with AJ MacGinty. Aaron Reed is preferred to Byron McGuigan on the left-wing in the only other change to the starting XV from last week. Sale have struggled for consistency this season and they finally have an opportune chance to string together a set of results with the same crop of players. They won the reverse fixture at the AJ Bell when they suffocated the reigning Champs even when they had all of their England stars. This week the game plan should be the same, pinning the London club in corners and backing their defence to stop their gainline momentum. If they win the physicality battle, and they should against an understrength Quins pack, they have all the tools to win this game from the boot and with tries.
Harlequins have been depleted by their Six Nations call ups, and have already amassed one loss in this 6N window. In our pre-season preview, we mentioned just how crucial Quins’ ability to cope without their stars would be for their overall Premiership title defence. This week, the task they face seems even tougher and the absences even more notable. Tabai Matson has had to make 4 changes to last week’s starting side. Two changes come in the front row as Jack Walker is partnered by two new props in South African Jordan Els at Loosehead, and Simon Kerrod at Tighthead. Archie White comes into the starting lineup after Dino Lamb’s early injury last week, White’s inclusion forces a reshuffle as Viliami Taulani moves to the blindside flank. The only change in the backline sees Louis Lynagh starting on the wing in place of Nick David. Last week’s performance was very worrying for Quins fans, they looked like a completely different team without their internationals. The execution in attack needs to improve this week, far too many errors with ball in hand halted all of their attacking momentum and gifted Bath easy outs in defence. Against a tougher opponent in Sale this week, Quins will have to change drastically from last week if they are to avoid back to back defeats.
Beating Quins at the Stoop is an incredibly tough task for any side, only two sides have managed it this season. In saying that, I think Sale will win this game. Whilst Quins have the edge in the backline, Sale have a big edge in the pack. The Sharks should be able to dominate up front and force the Quins backline to play off slow ball, which is what we saw in the first matchup between these two sides back in Round 5. With Faf De Klerk and Manu Tuilagi also set to come on in the later stages of the contest, I think Sale can sneak over the line.
Prediction: Harlequins 27 - 29 Sale Sharks