Six Nations: Round 1 Matchday Preview
IRELAND vs WALES
Saturday 5th February
Aviva Stadium
14:15
The opening game of the 2022 Six Nations takes place at the Aviva Stadium (Lansdowne Road) when Ireland seek revenge on Wales. The Welsh won the Six Nations opener a year ago and went on to win their 28th Championship. However this year around things are set to be different. Andy Farrell’s side is in hot form having dispatched of Japan, Argentina and All Blacks in convincing fashion during the Autumn Nations series and their club sides are doing well, with all four provinces making the knockout rounds of the Champions Cup. On the other hand, Wayne Pivac’s side come into this series with big doubts and a very dreary outlook on their ability to defend their title. The injury cloud that plagued Wales in the Autumn still looms large in 2022. In fact, 680 of the 1000 caps that were available in last year's 6 Six Nations opener are unavailable for this clash, making Pivac’s side both inexperienced and out of form. At the Tight Five we have been bullish of Ireland’s chances to win the Championship altogether and we expect a clinical performance at the Aviva to kick off their campaign in winning fashion.
Ireland’s form has not gone unnoticed of late, and whilst they’ve been spared of the favourite tag, they’re ambitions won’t be anything short of winning the Championship. Ireland will be looking to make a statement win at the Aviva and they have all the tools to do so. Andy Farrell’s side has been blessed so far in avoiding significant injuries and covid dilemma’s, so Farrell has named a full strength team equipped to take care of Wales’ physicality and strike power. The pack hosts what is undoubtedly the best front row in the Championship featuring Furlong, Kelleher and Porter. This trio is imperative to Ireland’s ability to play mobile rugby whilst not giving an inch in the set-piece and physicality departments. This trio is further backed up by the power of James Ryan and deft skill of Tadhg Beirne. The loose forwards are Doris, Van der Flier and Jack Conan also meshing ball-carrying ability, speed in the loose and breakdown work in seamless fashion.
Ireland’s game plan will be to command the set-piece battle, and generate go-forward through their extremely mobile pack - shifting the point of attack as many times as possible in any given attacking set. Ireland’s trademark has been their ball-retention, especially given just how spacious their attacking sets are and the mobility of their forwards is key in allowing them to play with extreme ruck speed whilst shifting the attack across the pitch.
The backs feature a number of stalwarts that need no introduction. Gibson-Park and Sexton pair up in the halves. Aki and Ringrose form a veteran-esque midfield and on the wings a young but dynamic trio of Conway and Keenan are supplemented by electric debutant Mack Hansen. These backs will pounce on the opportunities created during the game and don’t be surprised to see them run riot if the forwards gain enough of an ascendancy.
Wales are on the opposite end of the form spectrum compared to their celtic rivals. Perhaps we are disrespecting the reigning champs by playing down their chances to this extent, but we don’t see how they will be able to contain the multitude of attacking weapons the Irish possess. Nonetheless, history has always taught us not to count out the Welsh, their physicality, pragmatism and sheer talent has often made them shock the world. Pivac has named as strong a side as possible given their injury dilemmas. It features a mixture of seasoned veterans with youngsters that are staking their claim on the world stage. The forwards feature Jenkins, Basham and Wainwright. Alongside a more experienced quintet of Wyn Jones, Ellis, Francis, Rowlands and Beard. Tomos Williams and new Captain Dan Biggar pair in the halves, their experience, passion and dynamism will be crucial in guiding their troops. The rest of the backs are young but experienced internationals. Tompkins partners Josh Adams, who makes a surprise switch to Outside centre. Whilst the back three is composed of Johnny McNicholl plus the British & Irish Lions duo of Louis Rees-Zammit and Liam Williams.
If the Welsh are to upset the Irish, it will all be based on their ability to challenge at the breakdown to disrupt the quality and speed of Irish possessions. The likes of Jenkins, Basham and Wainwright will certainly be tasked with doing so and their success in this department will likely have a direct impact on the final scoreline.
The Welsh are no slouches and for this reason should not be counted out. However, the domestic and international form that the Irish are in, paired with their home advantage means we’re backing the men in Green for this opening fixture.
Prediction: Ireland 44 - 17 Wales
SCOTLAND vs ENGLAND
Saturday 5th February
Murrayfield
16:45
Scotland host England at Murrayfield for their defence of the Calcutta Cup. The Scots have had England’s number on their last few occasions with two wins and a draw for the Scots in their last 5 matchups. The Scots have been steadily improving and are now an established Six Nations powerhouse. Their ambition this year will be no less than fighting for their first Championship win since 1999. The English, on the other hand, will have very different ideas and look to set the record straight and get back to their period of dominating the Calcutta Cup.
Gregor Townsend’s men come into this fixture having had a largely positive, yet still slightly disappointing Autumn Nations series, with the Scots having beaten Japan and Australia but falling short of a historic win against the World Champions South Africa. Furthermore, domestically Edinburgh and Glasgow are currently first and second in the URC meaning that the Scottish have the form and cohesion to be dangerous in this Six Nations.
The Scots have clearly raised the bar on their international and domestic standards and their aim will be to consistently perform at the top of their level, because they’re tough to beat when they play at their best.
GT has named a potent side that mixes mercurial play with traditional rugby principles. The forwards are as old-school Scot as you can imagine with the likes of Fagerson, Gray and Watson bringing the physicality to trounce the English. Yet, the pack also boasts the dynamism of Rory Sutherland and Jamie Ritchie. In the backs, Ali Price is a metronomic operator but he pairs up with one of the most unpredictable mercurial fly-halves in World Rugby, Finn Russell. In the centres, Townsend had a host of different options, but given the conditions and plan to play physical rugby he has opted for Sam Johnson and Chris Harris with the exciting Sione Tuipulotu limited to a bench impact. On the wings, the prowess of Duhan Van der Merwe is paired with the finesse of Darcy Graham and the all-rounded talents of Captain Stuart Hogg.
England enter the Six Nations off the back of a successful Autumn Nations series where they rejuvenated their squad and turned their head towards the 2023 RWC. Eddie Jones has made it clear that every tour between now and the RWC is a building block for the ultimate goal of winning the coveted William Webb Ellis Cup. This means that whilst the English will no doubt be hungry to take the Six Nations spoils, that’s not Eddie Jones’ priority. EJ has named a side that mixes experience and newcomers, they were successful in the Autumn carry that form over to inflict a painful away win over the Scots. Having had a few injury and Covid turbulences, England welcome back Joe Marler to the matchday 23, but Ellis Genge will start. He partners Kyle Sinckler and Luke Cowan-Dickie in the front row, with Jones opting for the ball-carrying ability of the Chief hooker ahead of the experience of Jamie George. The second and back-row suffered the dual blow of Jonny Hill and Courtney Lawes both being ruled out through injury and this has opened up the opportunity for Nick Isiekwe to partner his clubmate Maro Itoje in the row. The rest of the pack is rounded out by a back row trio that has fans drooling. Lewis Ludlam, new captain Tom Curry and Sam Simmonds form a rapid, ball-carrying and breakdown hungry loose-forward trio that will be looking to counter Watson, Ritchie and Fagerson. Youngs and Smith pair up in the halves whilst Slade shifts inside to occupy the 12 jersey with Elliot Daly starting at outside centre. The back-three is composed of Joe Marchant, Max Malins and Freddie Steward.
England are slight underdogs for this fixture, and given that it’s expected to be a mud-bath, England will need to win the battle up front if they want to win this game. They match up very evenly in the backs with both mercurial fly-halves having the ability to spark the game as well as smooth finishers and potent ball-carriers surrounding these playmakers. Jones has used his typical mind games touting Scotland as ‘red-hot’ favourites, but no doubt he expects his side to travel to Edinburgh and come away with 4 points. We expect the same because we feel that England’s pack can edge the breakdown battle, and the speed and versatility of their outside backs will give the Scots few points of reference making it very tough to contain the talents of the Englishmen.
Prediction: Scotland 18 - 22 England
FRANCE vs ITALY
Sunday 6th February
Stade de France
15:00
The hot favourites for the 2022 Six Nations host the perennial bottom dwellers in the last game of the opening round. Les Bleus have welcomed back a number of their big guns from injury and covid, yet it is uncertain who will be deployed come Sunday. This game does seem a foregone conclusion for the French, however given how tight the competition is expected to be this season, the French will know how important it is to win by the biggest margin possible. The Italians come into this opening fixture hungry to prove a point with their young guns, but missing a number of their key stars. The Italians have had occasions where they’ve challenged the French in the Six Nations, but this won’t be one of them.
France welcome back a number of key players to their squad and will be looking to blow out the cobwebs ahead of their Six Nations campaign. Fabien Gathie’s side will be mounting a Championship run and are many’s favourites. This Italy game comes as a bit of a blessing for the French squad who has faced a turbulent month domestically with a number of their players testing positive for Covid and others just coming back from injury. Galthie has named a full-strength side and will be expecting them to hit the ground running as they have no time to waste and all points will count in an eventual Championship decider come April. The front-row has no surprises, with Baille, Marchand and Atonio lining up together. Woki is selected in the second-row as he had been during the Autumn Internationals and pairs up with Paul Willemse. Jelonch, Cretin and Alldritt form a formidable backrow that combines pace, power and breakdown expertise. The Italians will have their handful with this pack.
In the backs, World Rugby Player of the Year Antoine Dupont captains the side, together with club-partner Romain Ntamack at Fly-Half. Dainty and Fickou are the midfield duo and Villiere, Penaud and sharpshooter Melvyn Jaminet round out the XV.
This French side has no flaws, the pack is mobile and physical, plus their set-piece is very polished. Behind the scrum they have two of World Rugby’s best players, a deft and powerful midfield pairing and a backthree that has poise, finishing skills and a lethal boot. If France have any cobwebs, they’ll be blown out within the first quarter of this match, such is the quality in this side.
The Italians face their first 6 Nations campaign under the tutelage of Kieran Crowley, now the 5th coach in just over a decade to guide the Italian through a 6N Campaign. However, as mentioned in our tournament preview for Italy, this squad has a different feel and approach than the ones of the last decade. Crowley has cleared the shelves and has named the youngest side of the Six Nations, with no player having over 50 caps in the Azzurro blue of Italy. Italy’s defence showed vast improvements in the Autumn, especially considering that Italy had the most porous defence of all time in the 2021 Six Nations conceding a record 239 points in that campaign under Franco Smith. In 2022, Crowley has mentioned that Italy will be looking to continue their defensive development whilst implementing an attacking side suited to the players in the squad, something we have not been able to see yet. A reasonable expectation for the Italians in this fixture will be to challenge France hard at the breakdown and defensively aim to contain the potent French attack for as much of the game as possible. However, what will be most interesting to see is whether this new attack, certain to be tailored around Garbisi’s playing style, can unlock the French on some occasions. My bet is that it is unlikely, but the hope is that during the tournament they can improve on last year's plus/minus. Italy’s biggest weakness in this game and throughout this year's Six Nations campaign is their tight five. The absence of tighheads Marco Riccioni and Simone Ferrari mean the front row stocks wear thin. For this game, Danilo Fischetti, Gianmarco Lucchesi and Tiziano Pasquali compose the Italian front-row. Ruzza and Cannone pair up in the second row. Whilst Gianmarco is one of the most promising Italians, the young Hooker is surrounded by a relatively undersized and extremely inexperienced Tight Five. The entire front and second row have 84 caps combined. The backrow features Captain Michele Lamaro, Sebastian Negri and debutant Toa Halafihi.
The backs are guided by young duo Varney and Garbisi in the halves. They will be looking to control the tempo of the game and not let the French get ascendancy early on, their game and territorial management will have a crucial impact on Italy’s ability to perform and the final score. Zanon and Brex combine in the centres whilst debutant Tommaso Menoncello joins Monty Ioane, and Edoardo Padovani in the back three.
Prediction: France 42 - 8 Italy