Gallagher Prem: Round 21 Matchday Preview
GLOUCESTER RUGBY vs WORCESTER WARRIORS
Friday 25th March
Kingsholm
19:45
GAME CALLED OFF
BATH RUGBY vs SALE SHARKS
Saturday 26th March
The Rec
15:00
LONDON IRISH vs NORTHAMPTON SAINTS
Saturday 26th March
Brentford Community Stadium
15:00
The Exiles are back at the Brentford Community Stadium and face off Northampton Saints in a key clash for both sides top 4 hopes. Northampton Saints have a game in hand and a bonus-point win would propel them just 4 points adrift of Exeter in 4th. London Irish on the other hand are just 3 points behind 4th place and will see this home game as a golden opportunity to capitalise on.
London Irish have been an exciting side to watch this season, and in 2022 they have stepped it up a gear converting a number of entertaining performances into wins. Their success has come off the back of three key factors, greater chemistry which has led to more polished performances, improved defensive cohesion, and excellent squad selection consistency - especially during this Six Nations window. Declan Kidney, once again benefits from good player availability for another week of selection consistency. Just two changes are made to the pack that fought valiantly against Exeter a fortnight ago. The Tight Five is unchanged, but the return of Captain Matt Rogerson at blindside means Cracknell drops to the bench, Sean O’Brien shifts to no.8 and Juan Gonzalez starts at Openside.
In the backs, Curtis Rona’s red card fortnight ago and subsequent 3 game ban has led to a slight re-shuffle. Lucio Cinti moves in from the right-wing into the vacant 13 jersey, and Kyle Rowe returns to the starting side following his first taste of international rugby during Scotland’s Six Nations campaign. Tom Parton will also return to action as he has been named in the 23 jersey to come off the bench.
Northampton Saints are sitting in 8th place in the Premiership but are somehow very much still in the Top 4 hunt. Chris Boyd’s side has had its ups and downs this season, but they’ll be looking to peak in time for a playoff push. On their day they can beat anyone in the league, their issue though, has been churning out those top drawer performances consistently. A fortnight ago they were impressive in their win against Wasps though they are very reliant on high-scoring - yet they’re unlikely to want to take on the high-flying London Irish in a shootout this week.
The Saints welcome back a number of key contributors this week. Chris Boyd has made three changes to last week's starting side. In the pack, Lewis Ludlam returns from his injury spell to Captain the side from the Openside. Courtney Lawes also makes his return following his Six Nations campaign with England. Lastly, Dan Biggar returns to run the cutter for Northampton, whilst the rest of the backline remains unchanged. Watch out for U20 campaigner Tom Litchfield and recent England campaigner Tommy Freeman off the bench both of which could light up the game with the smallest of opportunities.
The characteristics of both these sides means that this game is likely going to be a high-scoring shootout. Despite that, both sides have been most successful when their defence has been on-song and they have managed to keep their opposition in check. The Exiles have been tremendously inconsistent at home, whilst Northampton have an even split in their results at home and away. This will almost surely be a close, high-scoring affair and there is very little to split these two sides, but we’ll give the home side the slightest edge.
Prediction: London Irish 33 - 30 Northampton Saints
SARACENS vs BRISTOL BEARS
Saturday 26th March
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
15:00
‘The Showdown’ Part 2 features a new Premiership venue with Tottenham Hotspur Stadium hosting Saracens and Bristol. These two sides faced off in the opening game of the 21/22 Premiership season back in September, at that time many thought that they would be engaged in a Top 4 battle throughout the season, but as we know it hasn’t quite shaped out that way.
Mark McCall has held no punches in his team selection as he welcomes back 6 internationals after the conclusion of the Six Nations, those 6 are part of 7 changes made from their Round 20 win over Newcastle. The pack features the return of 3 English internationals with Jamie George replacing Tom Woolstencroft at hooker whilst Maro Itoje and Nick Isiekwe are back to form their lock partnership for club, as they did for country against France last week. The big news in the backline is that club captain Owen Farrell returns after missing the last 6 weeks with an ankle injury, he starts at fly-half. Outside of Farrell, Welsh international Nick Tompkins is back to start in the 12 jersey after his excellent Six Nations campaign. Both wing spots also see the return of English internationals with Elliot Daly starting on the blindside wing and Max Malins in the 14 jersey.
Pat Lam has rung the changes after their loss to Harlequins a fortnight ago with 8 changes being made to the starting XV. Jake Armstrong is the only front-rower to retain his place with Jake Woolmore in at Loosehead Prop and Harry Thacker returning from injury at hooker. Steven Luatua’s injury paved way for Joe Joyce to come back into the side, he starts in the second row with Chris Vui shifting to the blindside flank. Dan Thomas also returns to replace Sam Jeffries in the 7 jersey. Bristol’s scrum-half woes get some relief as Harry Randall is straight back into the starting lineup, he is joined by Tiff Eden at fly-half. Semi Radradra is demoted to the bench after a tough outing in Round 20, Piers O’Conor starts at outside centre in his place. The final change comes on the left wing with Jack Bates starting ahead of Henry Purdy.
These two teams are on completely opposite sides of the spectrum coming into the final 6 rounds. Saracens sit in 2nd place looking to secure a Top 4 place as well as a home semi-final, whilst Bristol are well and truly out of the race as they sit in 10th place. The team selection is a reflection of that with Saracens naming a fully loaded side as 6 internationals back up from the Six Nations, meanwhile, Bristol have the likes of Piutau, Sheedy and Radradra on the bench. As it is, Saracens are almost impossible to beat at home, only Gloucester have managed to do it this season. Pair that with the clear mismatch of talent in the starting lineups, it’s expected that Sarries come away with all 5 points. Bristol’s path to victory this season has been getting teams to engage in a hectic, broken-play dominated game as they can deploy their offloading game and take advantage of mismatches in the wide channels. However, Saracens are the least likely out of any Premiership side to engage in that style of play. Instead, Mark McCall’s men will pin the Bears back and look to force mistakes and penalties as Bristol play out from their own territory. All signs point to a Saracens cakewalk and it’s hard to give any reasons why Bristol can keep it close.
Prediction: Saracens 38 - 14 Bristol Bears
WASPS vs NEWCASTLE FALCONS
Saturday 26th March
CBS Arena
15:00
Wasps face off against Newcastle with a chance to keep their top 4 hopes alive. A bonus-point win for Lee Blackett’s side would see them 7 points adrift of Exeter but with a game in hand. They’d still have a mountain to climb, but it is still mathematically possible and this side has shown its resilience through much tougher times this season. Newcastle on the other hand find themselves in a much darker predicament. After starting the season well, they find themselves in a similar situation to last season. They are just one point ahead of last-placed and quickly improving Bath, they need a win to keep themselves out of that bottom spot. Even though there’s no relegation it would still be a very tough psychological blow for the Newcastle club.
Lee Blackett has made six changes from last week's narrow loss to Northampton away. He welcomes back a number of key contributors and they will be looking to ramp it up a gear this week to take the full 5 points from this fixture. Robin Hislop is the new name in the front row, joining the dynamic duo of Oghre and Alo. The engine room sees club captain Joe Launchbury return at lock to pair up with the ever-present Elliott Stooke. Malakai Fekitoa finally makes his return from a nasty leg injury suffered in round 2, and pairs with the experienced Jimmy Gopperth for an all-new midfield pairing. Spink is retained off the bench whilst Mills drops out of the 23 for this week. The last change is at fullback with Kibirge preferred over Watson who will be limited to a bench appearance.
Dean Richards' side are desperately looking for a win, something that’s been evading them since November 6th. Five of Newcastle's next Six fixtures are all against Top 4 hopefuls, whilst they’ve been improving in their losses as of late, including narrow losses against Exeter, Harlequins and a late blowout loss to Saracens, this game seems to be one of their last chances to rack up a plausible win. Whilst Wasps are still mathematically a Top 4 hopeful, they are at the very edge of that category in 9th place.
Dean Richards has opted to make 6 changes in the quest for a much needed away win. The tight five sees some minor shuffling, with Trevor Davison switching to the tighthead and Brocklebank coming in at loosehead. Sean Robinson shifts from blindside to lock and partners Sean Robinson as usual. In the back row, Will Welch, Freddie Lockwood and Callum Chick combine. Young Lockwood is awarded his first start for the Falcons having featured off the bench in Newcastle’s Prem Cup win over Leicester Tigers last week.
Three further changes have been made in the backline, with Luther Burrell returning to action in the midfield, Mateo Carreras replacing Nathan Earle, and Tom Penny starting at fullback in place of the off-contract Mike Brown.
The prediction for this game is not going to be surprising. Whilst Newcastle have shown in their most recent performances some flashes of their early season form, they haven’t been able to string together 80-minute performances. Wasps on the other hand have been in many ways the most impressive team this season. They’ve beaten top sides whilst being severely understrength and now find themselves with all their stars returning and an off chance of making the top 4. Blackett’s men won’t let such a golden chance to rack a bonus-point win at home before going into a do or die must-win 5 weeks.
Prediction: Wasps 35 - 20 Newcastle Falcons
EXETER CHIEFS vs LEICESTER TIGERS
Sunday 27th March
Sandy Park
15:00
The final fixture of Round 21 is a box office affair as the Exeter Chiefs look to exact their revenge on Leicester Tigers at Sandy Park. The reverse fixture in Round 1 featured a comfortable bonus-point victory for the Tigers in what turned out to be the first of an 11 game winning streak. Fast forward six months to now where both sides sit inside of the Top 4 but with Exeter Chiefs having a lot more on the line. The Tigers are 8 points clear at the top of the table and are almost guaranteed a home semi-final, whilst the Chiefs are clinging onto 4th place by just a point with Sale, Gloucester and Northampton circling the waters.
The Chiefs suffered a crushing blow to their playoff hopes last week after falling short to 11th place Worcester, albeit with 14 men for most of the game. In response, Baxter has made 4 changes to the starting lineup as he welcomes back a number of key figures from international duty. The front row of Hepburn, Innard and Williams remains the same but in behind them, Jannes Kirsten’s 3-week suspension and Don Armand’s injury means that Scottish International Jonny Gray and Richard Capstick step in to form a new look lock partnership. Sam Simmonds re-enters the fold after his ventures with England, he slots straight back into number 8 with Dave Ewers and Jacques Vermeulen rounding out the back row. In the backline, the only change is a forced one with Tom Hendrickson unavailable through suspension after his red card last week, Henry Slade will be backing up from Six Nations duties to take his place.
Much like Exeter, the Tigers get a number of internationals returning to the side this week. One of those is club captain Ellis Genge who starts ahead of James Whitcombe at loosehead prop, he is joined by the usual suspects of Julian Montoya and Joe Heyes. Ollie Chessum is also dropped straight back into the starting forward pack, he starts in the 6 jersey with Hanro Liebenberg shifting to the openside flank. The big news in the backline is that Ben Youngs and George Ford are back at 9 and 10 respectively looking to pick up where they left off before the international break. Guy Porter gets the nod at outside-centre with Matt Scott unavailable whilst Chris Ashton earns his first start for the club on the right-wing. Freddie Steward is the final change, he slots into fullback in favour of Bryce Hegarty.
This will be a monumental clash with both sides eager to win the bragging rights as well as lots on the line in terms of determining the playoff picture. Whilst Rob Baxter has emphasised the need for his side to peak at the right time, through injuries, international unavailability and other untimely factors the Chiefs have struggled for any real momentum throughout the season. Conversely, Leicester’s season has been smooth sailing, with Steve Borthwick boasting the depth of his squad and their ability to capably fulfil their duties throughout adversity. Both sides have welcomed back key international contributors and so it will be a real testament of where both sides are at just 5 rounds before the play-offs. Despite home advantage, we feel that Exeter’s struggles this season withhold some chronic issues, whilst Leicester’s form has been no fluke, for that reason we’re picking the visitors to score a Exeter Chiefs double and kick on their exceptional campaign.
Prediction: Exeter Chiefs 22 - 26 Leicester Tigers