Six Nations: Round 5 Matchday Preview
WALES vs ITALY
Saturday 19th March
Principality Stadium
14:15
The final round of the 2022 Six Nations kicks off in Cardiff when Italy visit the Welsh cauldron. The improving Italians will be looking for a win after showing a valiant 13-man display against Ireland and keeping Scotland within touching distance in Rome. Wales, on the other hand, have had a disappointing campaign, and will be looking to make sure that they finish with their second win. The fortress that the Millenium Stadium has been for Wales over the years was proven when they took out Scotland in round 2 and ran France down to the wire last weekend. The home supporters will undoubtedly continue to make this a hostile venue in order to propel their side to victory and a possibility of finishing third!
The Welsh, as reigning Champions have not managed a successful title defence, but considering their injuries, can close this campaign on a positive note. Nonetheless, Wayne Pivac’s selection has left a few faithful scratching their heads. Having blooded some youngsters and consolidated combinations, it is a surprise to see Alun Wyn Jones straight back into the starting lineup. The soon to be 150 cap veteran’s inclusion is a surprise mainly because of the prominence of Will Rowlands throughout the campaign, who on this occasion will be limited to a bench appearance. Pivac has made a further 5 changes, including Dewi Lake getting his first International start at hooker. In the backs, Gareth Davies starts at scrum-half, Uilisi Halaholo makes his first appearance for Wales in 2022 and Louis Rees-Zammit returns to the lineup after featuring from the bench last week. Lastly, Johnny McNicholl rounds out the starting XV as Liam Williams drops out of the matchday squad altogether.
Wales’ kicking prowess and defensive fortitude took France to the wire, and they will no doubt be looking to apply the same type of pressure on a young Italy backline to force mistakes and capitalise on opportunities. Davies and Biggar will certainly employ an astute kicking game that looks to put up contestable kicks for Adams and Rees-Zammit to hound on. They’ll be looking to put a lot of pressure on young Ange Capuozzo who will start for the first time in his 1 cap career.
Italy have stood up to the critics and put together a much stronger campaign than many foresaw for the Azzurri. Nonetheless, they still do not have a bonus point, let alone a victory to show for their improved efforts. Crowley has evidently changed the mentality of Italian rugby, and the players are going into their fixtures with the expectation to win. This raising of standards bodes well for Italian rugby, and even if they do not register a win in this tournament they will see success sooner rather than later if they continue this approach.
Crowley has made only 2 changes to the starting lineup for this week's clash against Wales. He has opted for the experience of Marco Fuser in the second row ahead of the impressive youngster Niccolo Cannone who instead features in a 6-2 bench split. The other change comes in the backs with Ange Capuozzo rewarded for his two-try debut performance at the Olimpico to start at full-back. Capuozzo’s inclusion shifts Italy’s most capped starter Edoardo Padovani on the wing, which will also likely be a tactical shift to counteract Wales’ kicking game plan.
The Italians have shown that their defence has vastly improved, yet they still concede tries off the back of avoidable individual errors. If they are to beat Wales at the Millenium, they must be close to perfect. Their accuracy in attack and defence will be crucial and their ability to contest the aerial battle will likely go a long way towards field position and a chance to win.
Although Italy’s improvements have been quite constant throughout this campaign, winning at the Millenium is a big ask for any team, let alone one that has not won in 135 Six Nations matches. The Azzurri will still be out to prove a lot, and if they continue their step-by-step improvements, they can certainly threaten to grind out a low scoring bonus point loss. Nonetheless, the Azzurri have had costly individual errors in all of their matches so far, and Wales are a quality outfit capable of causing issues and capitalising on opportunities.
Predictions: Wales 30 - 12 Italy
IRELAND vs SCOTLAND
Saturday 19th March
Aviva Stadium
16:45
A Triple-Crown is on the line in Dublin when Ireland host their Celtic Rivals, Scotland. Whilst all the spotlight will likely be cast on Sunday’s Championship decider, Ireland need to get a job done and Scotland will be looking to salvage what has been an underwhelming campaign. Ireland must win in order to keep their Championship hopes alive and then hope that England beat or draw with France. Scotland on the other hand can only scrape out a third-place finish at best and need a result against Ireland to do so or they will rely on points difference with England. Scotland can also drop down to fifth should they fail to earn a Bonus point and Wales gets a Bonus Point win. The summary of all this is that this game has a lot of weight on the shape of the Six Nations finale.
Andy Farrell’s campaign has been successful yet somewhat underwhelming, which is a good sign when the Irish currently find themselves still in with a shout of winning the Championship. Losing to France in France is nothing to be ashamed of and bonus point wins against all their other adversaries signifies that Ireland are well and truly a powerhouse. Farrell will be looking to take care of the matters that are in their hands and put Scotland to the sword at the Aviva. In any case, that result would lead to Ireland’s first Triple Crown since 2018. In order to collect his first silver-wear as an International Head Coach, Andy Farrell has named a consistent lineup with a few tactical tweaks. Just three changes for the Irish including Iain Henderson filling in for the concussed James Ryan. Peter O’Mahony drops to the bench and Conan regains his no.8 jersey, shifting Doris to the blindside. In the backs, Mack Hansen will be awarded his 3rd Irish cap after stunning the Rugby World with a Man of the Match debut in Round 1 as Conway drops out of the squad with a knee injury.
Whilst Ireland’s campaign has been highly successful, they will certainly be slightly disappointed with their attacking polish during the Six Nations. They beat all their opponents comfortably in the end, but they will be the first to admit that their accuracy has uncharacteristically let them down on a number of occasions. Signs of a quality side is ‘winning ugly’, but on this occasion, Ireland will be looking to put on a display and demonstrate that they have so much more to offer despite being a top-quality side already.
Scotland were hyped up for big things this campaign, and although they haven’t actually flopped at all, they will be disappointed in some of their performances. After the jubilation of beating England, they crashed back down to earth in a loss to Wales and then got exposed by France. Their latest performance against Italy was far from perfect and they ended up ‘only’ winning by 11 points, but most importantly conceding 22 points from a side that had scored just 16 in their previous 3 matches.
Gregor Townsend has made just two changes to the starting lineup, even though it feels like a total shakeup. The forward pack welcomes back test veteran Jonny Gray and Sam Skinner drops back to the bench. Whilst in the backs, the blockbuster news has been the selection of Blair Kinghorn to start at fly-half, with Finn Russell dropped to the bench. Aside from these two captivating changes, Darge continues his excellent form in the back row whilst another young back-row prospect, Josh Bayliss, makes his way onto the bench. Whilst both sides have laid their foundations on defence, both sides have the capability and desire to explore the wider areas of the pitch. This could be a flamboyant affair and if that is the case, Scotland have a number of attacking players to unleash, so long as they first ensure that they control the middle of the park.
Ireland have been formidable in this tournament, and aside from a narrow loss in France, they have beaten every other side convincingly. Andy Farrell’s side thrive off of lightning-quick ruck ball and get it through raw physicality and their ability to shift the point of attack like no other side. In order to stop Ireland from attacking the way they want to, Scotland’s pack will have to take their physicality to another level in order to slow their ruck ball down, but allowing 22 points to Italy last week is an ominous sign for Gregor Townsend’s side coming into this week. We can’t see the Scots slowing down the Green Machine that is Ireland’s attack, especially as the home side are in a must-win situation if they want any chance to claim the Six Nations title.
Prediction: Ireland 33 - 14 Scotland
FRANCE vs ENGLAND
Sunday 20th March
Stade de France
20:00
It’s fitting that the final game of the 2022 Six Nations will be the one in which the title is decided. ‘Le Crunch’ will be the matchup that either sees France win their first Grand Slam since 2010, or England spoiling the French party and potentially opening the door for Ireland to win the tournament. Les Bleus have been sensational through the first 4 rounds, Fabien Galthie’s side have won every contest which has set up this opportunity for his side to clinch the Grand Slam in front of packed Stade de France. England on the other hand will be looking to devastate the French dreams. A win will see England finish no higher than 3rd but a loss may result in a 5th place finish in back-to-back Six Nations campaigns.
France were burdened with big expectations coming into this Six Nations after beating the All Blacks at the back end of 2021. Up until this point, those expectations have been surpassed as the French are 4/4 coming into the final round. The French pack boasts qualities that not many other sides in World Rugby have. It is filled with players who combine raw physicality, excellent skills in contact and the ability to maintain their tempo of play throughout 80 minutes. France’s teamsheet consistency throughout the tournament has been a massive factor in getting them within one win of a Grand Slam. The starting French forward pack has only had one change throughout the entire tournament, something that is almost unheard of these days, especially in international rugby. That theme rings true this week as the forwards remain unchanged for the 4th game in a row. There is only 1 change to the backline from last week’s victory over Wales, Damian Penaud returns to the wing in favour of Yoram Moefana after he missed last week with COVID.
Eddie Jones continues his ‘Teamsheet Roulette’ as he’s named a rotated and unexpected side for his side’s final game of the tournament. England face the prospect of back-to-back 5th place finishes in the Six Nations if they were to lose this game, something that has never happened before. Jones has opted for 5 changes to the starting XV from last week’s valiant defeat to Ireland. After suffering a head knock last week, Kyle Sinckler is only deemed to be fit enough for a bench appearance this week with Will Stuart promoted off the bench. Charlie Ewels has received a three-week ban off the back of his red card last week, as a result, Nick Isiekwe is called up to partner club teammate Maro Itoje in the second row. After Tom Curry limped off with a hamstring injury last week, Sam Underhill returns to take his place on the openside flank. With most expecting England to deploy a heavy kicking game to counter France, Ben Youngs is somewhat unsurprisingly preferred at scrum-half this week over Harry Randall. The final change sees a shift in the back 3 with George Furbank making his first appearance of the tournament as Max Malins was dropped from the squad to most people’s surprise. With Furbank at fullback, Freddie Steward moves to the wing in a likely ploy to give him the chance to win aerial battles over Gabin Villiere.
Eddie Jones promised attacking flair from his side prior to the tournament, but what we’ve seen on the attacking side of things from England has been far from that. In fact, they have only managed two tries outside of the Italy game, this game is one last chance to release the shackles and promote attacking rugby with nothing to lose. As mentioned, England’s game plan will be to counter France’s kicking game with a heavy kicking game of their own. They’ll look for Freddie Steward to get those one-on-one aerial matchups to gain field position, whilst also trying to do what France have done to every other side this tournament, pin sides deep in their own territory and force errors or turnovers. However, that plan hinges on England’s forwards standing up and getting some go forward, kicking on the back foot is a slippery road to go down.
Many are quietly confident that England can travel to France and spoil the party, we at the Tight Five don’t see it that way. France have a much clearer idea they want to play as well as far more experience executing it. Whilst England’s undermanned pack showed up well against Ireland last week, France are a different animal to contend with. Les Bleus should be able to win the physical battle and execute their kicking game plan on their way to their first Grand Slam since 2010.
Prediction: France 24 - 15 England