Gallagher Prem: Round 22 Matchday Preview
SALE SHARKS vs SARACENS
Friday 1st April
AJ Bell Stadium
19:45
The Sharks will be taking on Saracens in what will be an extremely physical contest at the AJ Bell. Sale have made a monumental comeback this season, coming from the lowly 11th all the way back into contention for a top 4 finish. The Sharks are currently sitting in 5th just two points shy of Exeter. Saracens have been on a different trend, whilst they’ve still found a way to win, they haven’t been as clinical in 2022 as they were at the beginning of the season. Nonetheless, Sarries are still favourites to finish the season second and secure a home semi-final. This game, like most games in these final 5 rounds, will have huge top 4 implications.
The Sharks drew to Bath last week, a disappointing result for Alex Sanderson’s side who have otherwise been hitting their stride in recent weeks. The Mancunians have only lost 1 of their last 8 game, and welcome back a few more big guns to the fold. Sanderson has made just 1 change this week, with Cobus Wiese coming in for the injured Jean-Luc Du Preez. Whilst Sale will sorely miss the South African bruiser, Cobus Wiese and JP Du Preez off the bench provide plenty of umph themselves. The headlines this week are on the bench though for Sale as both Nick Schonert and Manu Tuilagi have been named and will be looking to provide plenty of impact. Sharks will be eager to get a home win, they have a bye next week then face Falcons, Wasps away and Bristol at the AJ Bell could well be a ‘play-off’ match for their top 4 hopes.
Saracens have been ‘winning ugly’ in 2022, despite not playing their best rugby, they’ve won 6 of their 9 games in 2022 and have never dropped out of 2nd place since the standings settled this season. They are still 5 points clear of Harlequins in 3rd and 13 points clear of Sale in 5th. Yet the X times Champions have to face Exeter, Worcester away, Northampton and Gloucester away to finish the season. With 3 of those key top 4 competitors as well as Sale today, Saracens will need to play at their best and get some big results. McCall has opted for 3 changes this week. Eroni Mawi starts ahead of Barrington in the front row, Tim Swinson comes into the second-row pushing Maro Itoje to blindside flanker. Lastly, Farrell failed his HIA causing a reshuffle in an otherwise unchanged backline. Goode takes the 10 jersey, Daly shifts to fullback, Marlins to the left-wing and former Scotland International Sean Maitland takes the 14 jersey.
This clash will be all about physicality, accuracy and territory. Both sides pride their game on their defence and applying a pressure kicking game based on playing in the right areas of the field. Both teams will also be looking to redeem themselves from sub-par performances last week against bottom of the table sides, and they’ll have the extra motivation of knowing that this game has top 4 implications.
It’ll be almost impossible to separate these two teams, but Sale’s season is on the line, they have home advantage and their bench will bring in the impact needed to get them over the line - this is the narrative we at the Tight Five are going with. The tightest top 4 race of all time awaits us.
Prediction: Sale Sharks 23 - 22 Saracens
EXETER CHIEFS vs BATH RUGBY
Saturday 2nd April
Sandy Park
15:00
Back to back losses for the Chiefs means that they can ill afford any more slip-ups throughout the final stretch of the season. Bath will be sporting the underdog tag and look to put the nail in the coffin on Exeter’s season, as a loss for the Chiefs would almost certainly see them out of the running for a playoff spot. The positive news for Chiefs fans is that their side has dominated this head-to-head matchup over recent years as Bath haven’t won at Sandy Park in 8 years.
The Chiefs will be bitterly disappointed with their performance against the Tigers last week. Whilst on the surface a 5 point loss to the league leaders isn’t an awful result, Exeter were dominated for the most part of that game. We’ve been saying it all season, but it still doesn't feel as if the Chiefs have fully clicked yet. That will need to change quickly for the final 5 weeks of the season as every fixture becomes a must-win game.
Rob Baxter has opted for five changes to the starting side that fell to Leicester last week with a couple of notable absentees. Two changes come in the front row with club captain Jack Yeandle starting at hooker and the impressive Patrick Schickerling getting the start at tighthead prop. Jannes Kirsten has served his 3-week suspension and is thrust straight back into the fold, he joins Jonny Gray in the second row. A shift around in the back row sees Scottish international Sam Skinner start at openside flank moving Jacques Vermeulen to number 8 as Sam Simmonds serves his mandatory rest break. Tom Hendrickson is another who returns from suspension, he replaces Henry Slade who like Simmonds, is serving a mandatory rest period. The final change sees Stuart Hogg drafted in at fullback as he served his rest period last week, and Josh Hodge moves to the bench.
Bath have turned a corner somewhat in the second half of the season, in fact, they come into this clash on a 3 game unbeaten streak in the Premiership. A big reason for the development since the new year has been Nathan Hughes. News broke this week that this will be Hughes’ last game of his loan spell before heading back to Bristol, so expect one last explosion from him against a powerful Chiefs pack.
Five changes have been made to the starting side from last week’s thrilling draw to Sale. The number 1 shirt sees a new face as Russian Valeriy Morozov slots straight back into the side after missing last week altogether. Behind the front row, Charlie Ewels returns after serving his suspension period for his red card against Ireland in the Six Nations, he captains the side. The back row remains the same with Josh Bayliss, Sam Underhill and Nathan Hughes forming a back row with a wide range of abilities. Danny Cipriani is a surprise omission to the starting XV after his stellar performance last week, Bath fans will be hoping for a similar level of performance from Orlando Bailey in his place. Joe Cokanasiga makes his long-awaited start after returning from injury, it’s his first after 3 consecutive stints off the bench. The final change comes on the other wing with Semesa Rokoduguni replacing Will Butt.
Exeter have been one of Europe’s premier sides over recent years, so to see them in this position is unusual, but now is the time for the Chiefs to step up and make their intentions clear. Whilst Sam Simmonds and Henry Slade are absent, the quality in this side is plentiful. Exeter must stamp their authority on this game early and make sure Bath aren’t hanging around come late in the game. To do that, the battle of the back row is going to be the key. The Chiefs have to stifle the turnover presence of Underhill and Bayliss whilst also not allowing Nathan Hughes to create inroads with ball in hand. That’s step one, step two is being able to convert the opportunities presented to them, particularly early on in the game. We believe that with the added motivation of the top 4 along with matchups in the forward pack, Exeter should have no real trouble getting the win.
Prediction: Exeter Chiefs 27 - 17 Bath Rugby
GLOUCESTER vs WASPS
Saturday 2nd April
Kingsholm
15:00
Another Top 4 chasing battle pits Gloucester against the resilient Wasps. They’re on opposite sides of the probability scale in terms of making the Top 4, but both have a mathematical chance and will be viewing this as a play-off match for their 2022 Semi-Finals hopes. Wasps are the last of the teams still capable of making the top 4, 9 points adrift of Chiefs currently in 4th spot. Yet the fact that they are in this spot having endured an injury-ravaged season, and the fact that their big guns have been steadily returning to the pitch in the last few weeks means that they will at worst be the thorn in many sides’ top 4 hopes and at best make a scintillating run to the 4th spot. Gloucester on the other hand are, in our opinion, are in pole position to make the Playoffs, so much so that we think they’ll be challenging for the 3rd spot rather than the 4th. Regardless of both sides’ Top 4 hopes, these two times have very little separating them on paper and this will be a game that combines physicality with excellent tactical play as well as game-breakers littered across the field - a good recipe for entertainment.
Gloucester are in prime position for their top 4 run. George Skivington’s side has arguably been the most impressive side not named Leicester this season. Their no-nonsense forward play paired with extreme efficiency and relentless defence has been to the Cherry & Whites impressive campaign. Although their form has dipped recently, having lost 3 of their last 4 games (not including the cancelled Worcester), they have no byes till the end of the season. With Wasps, Bristol and Bath in the next three weeks they have to take advantage before they face two direct clashes with Harlequins and Saracens in rounds 25 and 26 respectively.
This week, Skivington makes just two changes to the side that never played last week. Jack Singleton returns to the pack and slots into hooker with the impressive Socino reverting to the bench. The impressive young Hooker has been close to England contention with his form this season and will be looking to pick up where he left off before the injury. The sole other change to the XV is the return of Louis Rees-Zammit who replaces Ollie Thorley on the left-wing.
In a search for the form that propelled them to the heights of 3rd place in January, Gloucester will be looking to build their run so that they can peak at the right point of the season.
Wasps have similarly been a very interesting story to follow this season. Lee Blackett’s side has been ravaged by injuries but they’ve taken the spotlight multiple times this season. The resilience of their squad has been impressive and with all their young and old stars returning to the fold they are going to be a key side in the top 4 race regardless of whether they make it or not. They face a tough run into the season finale, facing 4 sides currently in the top 8, but stranger things have happened this season. Blackett has made 3 changes from last week's winning side against Newcastle. Tom West is the only change to the pack, with the 26-year-old starting at loosehead in place of Robin Hislop. The other two changes come in the backline with Will Porter starting ahead of Robson, Kibirge dropping to the bench, Umaga shifting to fullback and Charlie Atkinson starting at fly-half.
Another guaranteed close affair in the Premiership means that predicting the winner is a difficult task. This game will be decided on moments as both sides will likely remain in the contest for the full 80. Yet, the home advantage as well as Gloucester’s proven try-scoring weapon means we back the Cherry & Whites to get back on their horse and rack up their first win to start a crucial last run into the play-offs.
Prediction: Gloucester 28 - 25 Wasps
NORTHAMPTON SAINTS vs BRISTOL BEARS
Saturday 2nd April
Franklins Gardens
15:00
What’s expected to be an enthralling encounter takes centre stage on Saturday afternoon as Northampton host Bristol at Franklins Gardens. The Saints are desperately clinging on to their slender hopes of a Top 4 spot and after having won two on the bounce, they’ll be eager to extend their winning run as they look to peak for their race to the finish line. Meanwhile, Bristol’s Premiership campaign is over with the Bears out of contention for the Top 4. So instead they’ll take on the villain role this week as they look to spoil the party and gain some needed momentum in their Champions Cup knockout tie with Sale next week.
The Saints come into this game fresh off their thumping of London Irish, a result that was vital for their Top 4 hopes. With essentially every fixture of theirs from now until the end of the season being a must-win in order to book a playoff spot, Chris Boyd has opted for just one change to last week’s starting lineup. The solo change comes in the outside backs with Tommy Freeman promoted from the bench into the 14 jersey as Courtnall Skosan is unavailable.
Northampton’s ‘Achilles Heel’ this season has been their consistency, but with a two-game win streak under their belt, now has to be the time to string a big win streak together and reach their peak if they are to make Chris Boyd’s final season one to remember. The armoury is fully-loaded with all of their internationals back, so now is the time for the Saints to put a marker down and apply real pressure to those above them on the table as they jostle for that coveted 4th place.
The Bears were valiant last week against Saracens, only denied the win after an added time try was ruled out for a forward pass. Bristol’s Top 4 hopes have been dead in the water for a number of weeks now, so the focus for the remainder of the season will be the Champions Cup and building their squad for next year. Rumours have been circulating that the Bears have issues with their salary cap next season and will therefore need to unload some of the current crop. So, with that in mind, these last 5 weeks could potentially be the difference as to which players are considered ‘must keeps’ and those that can be shipped off.
A whopping 8 changes to the starting lineup have been made by Pat Lam from last week’s narrow loss. Either side of Harry Thacker, Yann Thomas replaces Jake Woolomore at loosehead whilst John Afoa swaps for Jake Armstrong on the tighthead side. The only other change to the pack comes in the back row as Jake Heenan starts in the 7 jersey as Dan Thomas drops out of the squad altogether. Harry Randall’s return to the starting XV was short-lived as he is moved to the bench this week, Andy Uren starts in his place. Uren is joined by Welsh international Callum Sheedy who is promoted from the bench. Semi Radradra and Charles Piutau are also back in the starting side after being named on the bench last week, they’ll line up in the 13 and 15 spots respectively. The final change is Siva Naulago who returns from his suspension and starts on the wing in favour of Jack Bates.
There’s no secret as to how this game should pan out. Both sides have their defensive weaknesses and both have an enormous amount of attacking flair. Throw in the fact that these are two of the most ill-disciplined sides in the Premiership, that combination makes for a high-scoring affair. 56 points were scored when these two sides met back in Round 9 and we’re expecting something similar this time around. Ultimately, Northampton have everything to play for in this contest and although Bristol host lots of individual quality, they haven’t gelled as a group this year, especially when playing away from home. Northampton should be able to continue their attacking exploits with Alex Mitchell leading the way and rack up enough points to keep Bristol at bay and keep their slim top 4 hopes alive.
Prediction: Northampton Saints 36 - 30 Bristol Bears
WORCESTER WARRIORS vs NEWCASTLE FALCONS
Saturday 2nd April
Sixways
15:00
It’s fair to say that this fixture won’t be at the forefront for most people on Saturday with every other game having big implications on the playoff race. Nevertheless, Warriors and Falcons fans will be desperate to see their side get the win and move further away from Bath at the bottom of the table.
As is the case for Newcastle, Worcester’s season has been over for some time in terms of making the top 8 and gaining a Champions Cup spot. So, with next season as the main focus, Worcester fans will be thrilled at the news that broke this week. Following the confirmation that Curtis Langdon and Cameron Nield will join the club from Sale next season, it was revealed that more signings will soon be announced including; an Australian Lock, Georgian Prop, Italian Back Rower, English Prop and a Kiwi Centre/Wing. The injection of fresh blood was needed at Worcester and Steve Diamond has certainly delivered ahead of next season. With that in mind, now is the time for the current group to step up and create selection headaches for Dimes ahead of the 22/23 season.
Five changes have been made to the starting Warriors side that defeated Exeter in Round 20. Scottish International Rory Sutherland returns in his first appearance for the club since before the Six Nations, he starts at loosehead prop. The other change to the pack comes in the back row with Kyle Hatherell returning from injury to replace Matt Kvesic. Willi Heinz played his final game for the club in the win over the Chiefs, Gareth Simpson fills that void this week. Duhan Van Der Merwe is another timely inclusion into the side, he comes onto the wing in what is his first start since his suspension. The opposite wing sees the final change with Alex Hearle replacing Perry Humphreys.
Newcastle's Premiership season has fallen from a cliff since opening with four wins from their first seven games. Since then however, the northerners haven’t registered a win, a period that has now stretched for over 3 months. The Falcons just haven’t been able to find much consistency in their lineup since the new year and it’s certainly shown in their performances. But, the season keeps coming thick and fast and this week provides their best opportunity in a number of weeks to snap their losing streak. Importantly, just two changes to the starting lineup have been made from last week’s heartbreaking loss to Wasps. The first of those changes features in the back row, with Callum Chick unavailable through injury, Josh Basham starts in his place with Freddie Lockwood moving from the flank into the vacant Number 8 position. The second and final change comes at fly-half with Brett Connon starting as Will Haydon-Wood drops to the bench.
The return of Kyle Hatherell, Rory Sutherland and Duhan Van Der Merwe is huge for the Warriors, those three players take this side to another level. At the moment, we simply can’t tip Newcastle given that they haven’t won a Premiership fixture since early November. This game should be a gritty one, it will come down to who is able to maintain their discipline the best and take opportunities when they get in the 22. We’re backing Worcester to get their second consecutive Premiership and distance themselves from the bottom of the table.
Prediction: Worcester Warriors 24 - 21 Newcastle Falcons
LONDON IRISH vs HARLEQUINS
Sunday 3rd April
Brentford Community Stadium
15:00
Two of the most exciting clubs square off in a mouth-watering London Derby. The unpredictable Exiles face off against the back to full strength Harlequins. The ‘four quarters’ will be looking to cement their third place spot and push for an unlikely but still mathematically plausible home semi-final. London Irish on the other hand, are still in the hunt for the top 4 but their faltering performances in recent weeks has left them with a bit of a mountain to climb. Both sides enjoy flinging the ball around and in what is expected to be a sunny Saturday afternoon at the Brentford Community stadium we are expecting a classic shootout between two of the most prolific sides in the Premiership.
London Irish have lost their last two, having previously not lost in their last 5 outings. The Exiles beat Harlequins in the reverse fixture at the Stoop and they’ll be looking to revive that sort of defensive performance to reel in Quins’ expansive attack and allow their mobile pack to stretch their defence and tire Harlequins’ attacking weapons. Needless to say that this fixture is crucial for the Exiles’ top 4 hopes. After this game they face no other top 8 team in any of their next fixtures, but their bye week is untimely placed in round 26, meaning they need to roll their sleeves up now. They are only 4 points adrift from 4th at the moment, so a win against Harlequins would give them a serious chance at the playoffs.
Declan Kidney has made 4 / 5 changes from the side that got comfortably beaten last week. The pack sees Captain Matt Rogerson shift to an unusual second row spot in an otherwise unchanged tight five. Impressive youngster Tom Pearson takes the vacant blindside spot. Albert Tuisue is the only other change to the forwards coming in for Sean O’Brien at no.8. In the backline, Curtis Rona returns from suspension, shifting Lucio Cinti to the wing and Tom Parton returns to the starting lineup having featured from the bench last week. Will Joseph (younger brother of Jonathan) has been named on the bench and could make his Premiership debut having started in the Exiles Prem Cup midweek fixture.
Harlequins have waddled through their first Star-less Six Nations period relatively unscathed. With many predicting that this was the crucial period for Quins, usually accustomed to keeping their young stars during this window, they managed to keep themselves within the top 4, having won 4 of their last 7 since their Internationals were unavailable. They come into this fixture fresh off a bye week and welcome back 5 England Six Nations camp members. Marler, Dombrandt, Smith and Marchant will all make their first Quins appearance since Round 14. Luke Northmore is also promoted to the starting side, having featured on the bench a fortnight ago fresh off his first England call up. Young U20’s star George Hammond is also thrown into the fray and pairs up with another young, albeit departing, star Quins lock in Hugh Tizard. Huw Jones will start at fullback following Tyrone Green’s ugly injury a fortnight ago.
An almost certain thriller at the Brentford Community Stadium is hard to pick, as both sides have shown that they’re world beaters on their day and very beatable when it doesn’t click. Despite both sides being renowned for their attacking exploits, both have actually been most successful when their defence has been on song. London Irish put on a defensive masterclass at the Stoop in the reverse fixture and came away with the win, but on this occasion, with Quins welcoming their stars who’ll be eager to cement that top 4 spot we think they’ll have too much firepower. Quins come into this fixture off a bye week and a four game winning streak, the presence of their newly blooded England stars should be just a bit too much for an Exiles side that sometimes doesn’t perform for the full 80.
Prediction: London Irish 29 - 33 Harlequins