Gallagher Prem: Round 23 Matchday Preview
BRISTOL BEARS vs GLOUCESTER
Friday 22nd April
Ashton Gate
19:45
The unpredictable Bears take on Gloucester in a West-Country derby packed with emotions. Gloucester are lurking in the top 4 zone, and a win is imperative as they face Bath, Quins and Saracens in their next 3 matches. Bristol on the other hand, bowed out of the Champions Cup last weekend with a close aggregate loss to Sale in the Round of 16 knockout stage, their focus now is fully on building combinations for next season and putting out top-drawer performances. This makes for an interesting game, with Gloucester playing for a very important prize, whilst Bristol, now devoid of any pressures, will be looking to spoil the party in their flamboyant style.
Pat Lam’s tenure at Bristol has been largely successful, but this season will see them come no better than 10th, their worst result since returning to the Premiership and finishing 9th in 2018/19. Lam signed a monstrous 5-year contract extension at the beginning of this season which will see the Kiwi stay at the helm until 2027/28, and whilst this season has not gone to script, the side has made some shrewd signings for next season and is building their performances carefully for a return to the pointy end of the table. This week Pat Lam has made 10 changes from last week’s Champions Cup loss to Sale. Woolmore is the only mainstay in the tight five, with the dynamic Harry Thacker and the experienced John Afoa the new names in the front row. Chris Vui shifts from the back row to join Ed Holmes in the engine room pairing. The impressive Fitz Harding returns to the starting lineup at number 8 together with Captain Steven Luatua on the blindside. In the backline, another three changes are made. Andy Uren is preferred over Randall to start, the departing Antoine Frisch takes Bedlow’s 12 jersey and Toby Fricker is the new name on the right wing with Morahan shifting to fullback.
As ever with Bristol, the key to their success is if their pack can generate quick ruck ball for their creative backs to seize opportunities in space. However, they have struggled to do this on a number of occasions this season, and Gloucester have proved to be one of the best defensive sides in the league. The Cherry & Whites pack enjoys rolling their sleeves up and bouncing back opponents carry after carry, so it will take a deft short kicking game from Sheedy and Uren to keep the Gloucester defence guessing. Bristol’s achilles heel has been a tendency to attack laterally before having engaged inside defenders. The matchup with Chris Harris, one of the best outside centre defenders in the league, means that Bristol will have to be especially aware of ensuring that his inside shoulder is engaged before they can look to challenge the outside space. It will be interesting to see the developments Bristol make in these final stages of the season to gauge how they will do in 2022/23.
Gloucester come into this fixture having beaten Northampton in the Challenge Cup Round of 16 fixture, booking their place for a home quarter-final against Saracens. In fact, George Skivington has named the same 1 through 15 from last week’s win and just one change to the 23 with Andrew Davidson taking Alex Craig’s bench spot. The consistency in Gloucester’s selection is a testament to Skivington’s ability to turn this club around into one of the most high-percentage teams in the Premiership. Their simplistic but efficient playing style has led them to the point where not making the Top 4 would not just be seen as bitterly disappointing but as a bit of a failure - something impressive considering they finished 11th just a season ago. Gloucester’s game plan is about as predictable as it gets, but this side is so effective at the fundamentals and so resilient in their defence that they are often difficult to break down. Nonetheless, Bristol can present a tricky picture for defences when everything clicks for the Bears. Gloucester ought to ensure that their exits are well-executed and look to slow down the breakdown at every occasion. Whilst Bristol can be threatening, Gloucester are basically the antidote to the Bears attacking style and should be able to keep them in check comfortably.
The Bristolians have had an unpredictable season, but overall they have not strung many quality performances together. They are still missing a lot of the attacking firepower that led them to first place last season, and whilst not having pressure might allow them to play more freely, Gloucester are more than capable of quelling any storm that Bristol presents them. The Kingsholm faithful will travel to Bristol knowing that this game is imperative for their still very plausible but increasingly congested top 4 hopes.
Prediction: Bristol Bears 20 - 32 Gloucester
NEWCASTLE FALCONS vs LONDON IRISH
Friday 23rd April
Kingston Park
19:45
Falcons take on London Irish in what is bound to be a high-scoring affair in the North. Newcastle have been improving week on week and they finally won their first Premiership game since November 2021 in their last Prem outing against Worcester. London Irish are also coming into this match with confidence and needing to rack up the bonus points in order to mount a serious top 4 fight.
Newcastle’s season has platooned in 2022, with last week’s loss to Glasgow, the Falcons have bowed out of the Challenge Cup and their only objective is to finish the season in the Prem Top 10. Whilst a purely symbolic objective, it would be a nice send-off for Dean Richards, the stalwart DoR who has served this club so valiantly over the years. This year, unfortunately, has not been one of the best for the Falcons, with what was a promising start for the second consecutive season slowly turning into another complicated fInale. The Falcons have however won their last Premiership outing with a comfortable thrashing of bottom of the table rivals Worcester Warriors at Sixways. That result was brewing for a number of weeks as the Falcons performances were improving but they couldn’t quite get over the hurdle and into the winners column.
This week the task at hand is very difficult, with the high-flying Exiles visiting Kingston Park. London Irish are in Top 4 contention, but they are a beatable side for Richards' men. They have opted to make just two changes in the pack from last week’s Challenge Cup side, with Will Welch and Philip Van der Walt returning to the starting side replacing the young Freddie Lockwood and Mr.Reliable, Greg Peterson. The backline is subject to quite the shake-up with an all-new halfback pairing of Cameron Nordli-Kelemeti and Joel Hodgson. Max Wright takes Luther Burrell’s spot in the midfield and Mateo Carreras rounds out the changes on the right-wing as Radwan is relegated to the bench.
London Irish travel up north as one of the most unpredictable sides in the league and making a desperate, albeit complicated, push for the top 4. The Exiles have been superb in away games this season, and they have named a side fully capable of taking advantage of the fast pitch at Kingston Park. They come into this fixture nigh high on confidence having demolished Castres by 37 points last weekend, scoring 64 points in the process. Les Kiss & Declan Kidney will be gearing up to have this side fire in the same way having made just 3 changes all of which in the pack. Oli Hoskins slots back in at tighthead having featured from the bench a week ago. The other two changes are in the back row with Captain Matt Rogerson slotting back into his blindside spot, Pearson shifts to the openside and Albert Tuisue returns to his no.8 jersey.
Despite falling to 8th on the ladder, London Irish’s top 4 hunt is still mathematically possible albeit difficult. They still sit just 9 points adrift of Exeter who are facing Saracens this week, whilst Gloucester in 5th will face Quins and Saracens before the season ends. Given that the Exiles face no top 8 sides in their next three fixtures they have a real chance of putting themselves in good stead for the top 4 spot, but they are going to need full points because they face a dreaded bye round in the last round of the Premiership. It is very plausible that they do this, as they are the joint top of the attacking bonus point column with 11 this season.
Newcastle have strung together a number of increasingly improved performances in recent months, but have only one win to show for it. We expect something similar to occur with Newcastle likely to stay in touch for large parts of the game but ultimately lack the attacking output to keep up with London Irish’s 4th best attack.
Prediction: Newcastle Falcons 22 - 28 London Irish
HARLEQUINS vs LEICESTER TIGERS
Saturday 23rd April
Twickenham Stoop
15:00
A classic is brewing at the Twickenham Stoop, Quinsanity vs Borthwick’s stoic English revival. Two of the most interesting sides in the Premiership over the last 24 months and with two completely approaches to success. Quins’ flamboyant approach and meteoric rise to stardom and Premiership champions has been like their playing style - fast, unpredictable and a joy to watch. Leicester, on thback to the heights of the Premiership has been methodic, calculated and somewhat predictable. Borthwick has developed this side into one of those machines that simply goes ahead and does what it's supposed to do, and it's so
Harlequins come into this fixture with the bitter disappointment of their narrow aggregate loss and missing out on a Quarter-Final spot in the Champions Cup. They have however highlighted that they put on one of their better attacking displays last week, and having fared well throughout the season even without much of their stars, they’ll be looking to string together a number of strong performances to build into the playoffs.
Tabai Matson and co will be looking to go one better against Leicester who beat them in a crunch match at Welford Road in the reverse fixture. They’ve named a full strength side boasting 8 internationals in the starting XV. Just two changes have been made from last week’s win against Montpellier, with Captain Stephan Lewies slotting in at blindside for George Hammond, and Luke Wallace starts at Openside with Will Evans dropping out of the matchday 23 through injury. The attention though is casted to the bench with Matson opting for a 6-2 split where Hammond, Chisholm and Lawday can provide impact to contrast Leicester’s monstrous pack.
The Tigers keep on marching, they come into this fixture having comfortably dealt with Clermont over two legs, and looking to continue their impressive Premiership run. Borthwick has elegantly managed this top-drawer squad which boasts tremendous depth. The Tigers’ player rotation has kept players active, in-form and ready to step up to the role required. This week they face the reigning Champions but the approach is no different. In fact, Borthwick has opted to ‘bench’ a number of stalwarts and will be looking to target that last third of the game where Harlequins usually excel. Nine changes have been made this week, but expect Tigers to play seamlessly as their structures are so solid. In the front row Van Wyk and Clare join the impressive Joe Heyes, whilst Calum Green steps in for Harry Wells and joins Eli Snyman in the engine room. Liebenberg captains the side and Olly Robinson and Sean Jansen are called into question in the 7 and 8 jersey respectively. The duo have the big boots to fill of Reffell and Wiese who have been nothing short of outstanding in recent weeks. In the backs, Youngs fills in for Van Poortvliet to pair up with George Ford. Nemani Nadolo, Matt Scott and Freddie Burns are the other new names in the starting lineup this week.
Similar to Quins this week, the focus is on the Tigers bench which boasts a ridiculous 217 caps on the bench. The impact that this dynamic bench can make on this match should not be downplayed. The ball-carrying ability of Genge and Wiese could be game-changing and Ashton has also been in-form and will be lurking in support lines.
A tough game to predict, both sides come into this fixture in stellar form having won four of their last five fixtures. In addition to their form, history has taught us that these games are very close with 6 points or fewer deciding the winner in five of their last six encounters. Harlequins have had incredible discipline this season, conceding a league low 9.4 penalties for game and they have paired this with a stellar turnover count enough for third-best in the league. Leicester though have been phenomenal defensively this season and have been awarded a league leading 13.5 penalties per game. Leicester are also topping red zone entries (12) per game and have spent the most time in the opposition half per game (55%). Meaning that they have the antidotes to keep Harlequins on the back foot, slow the game down and ultimately force Quins into a muscle match rather than an expansive game. We think it will be a tight game and whilst no one should underestimate the Tigers, there has to be a fire in Quins’ belly after last week’s exit so we’re backing them to close this one out.
Prediction: Harlequins 23 - 19 Leicester
WASPS RUGBY vs WORCESTER WARRIORS
Saturday 23rd April
CBS Arena
15:00
Wasps enter Round 23 of the Premiership in red-hot form having won their last 5 games in all competitions and their last seven at the CBS Arena. Their uptick in form has left a small chance for qualification into the playoff stages, but no mistakes can be made from here on in if they are to do so. The Warriors managed to topple over Lee Blackett’s men when they visited Sixways back in Round 10, but they haven’t beaten Wasps away from home in the last 10 years.
Wasps continued their European endeavours in the Premiership break as they beat Biarritz in France last week. Their last Premiership outing came at the start of April in what was a hugely impressive away win against Gloucester to prolong their faint hopes of making the Top 4. The realistic situation for Lee Blackett’s men is that they have to win every game from here on in whilst crossing their fingers in the hope for other results to fall in their favour. But as most coaches will say, all Wasps can do this week is focus on themselves and try to secure a bonus point against the 12th place Worcester Warriors. Just the three changes have been made to the starting XV from the 27-21 victory against the Cherry & Whites three weeks ago. The sole change in the forward pack comes at hooker with Gabe Oghre moving to the bench and Dan Frost starting in his place. The monstrous back five of the scrum that includes Launchbury, Stooke, Shields, Willis & Barbeary all retain their spots and will be expected to cause all sorts of inroads in the Worcester defence for the backline to play off of. Dan Robson is given the nod at scrum-half with Will Porter moved to the bench and Zach Kibirige starts on the wing in place of Paolo Odogwu. This season has been completely up and down for Wasps until this point, a big reason of which stems from their injury list. However, they have started to regroup and continuously welcome back returnees from the injury list and since they have, they’ve looked like a completely different side. They come into this game riding the wave of back-to-back wins and need to feed off that momentum to ensure what most expect to be a bonus-point victory. Worcester have big defensive issues all over the park which Wasps should be able to exploit, it’s clear that Wasps have the advantage in the forward pack and should be able to use that to create dominance at the set-piece and in the contact area. If they can, it opens up all sorts of avenues for their backline and they should be able to pick holes in a retreating Warriors defence and pile on the points.
The Warrior's season has been over for some time now, but in the process of rebuilding for next season, each game is another chance for players to prove to Steve Diamond and his coaching staff that they’re good enough and have the right mentality to be part of a winning club. Paired with that, the singing spree has continued with Diamond having announced six new faces ahead of next season and still more to come. The Warriors have made seven changes to the starting lineup from last week’s loss to Lyon at the Stadium de Gerland. The first name on the teamsheet is a new one as Rory Sutherland is moved to the bench after starting last week, Murray McCallum replaces him in the 1 jersey. Justin Clegg’s absence means that Joe Batley shifts from the back row into the second row with Kyle Hatherell back to fill the vacancy. Sam Lewis is promoted into the lineup to join Hatherell and captain Ted Hill in the back row. The 9-10 combination features two different players this week with Will Chudley and Billy Searle replacing Gareth Simpson and Fin Smith. The final two changes see South African Francois Venter start in the centres and Perry Humphreys replace Tom Howe on the wing.
Aside from the gulf in talent between these two sides, Wasps come into this fixture on better form and have the home ground advantage. Lee Blackett’s side should find success against Worcester’s struggling defence as their heavy-hitting pack will look to provide thunderous carries through the middle of the field in order to open the space for the likes of Robson, Atkinson and Fekitoa to exploit. Wasps need a bonus-point victory to keep their playoff hopes alive, we think they should have no trouble in doing so.
Prediction: Wasps 38 - 22 Worcester Warriors
BATH RUGBY vs NORTHAMPTON SAINTS
Saturday 23rd April
The Rec
The Saints haven’t won at the Rec since 2015, that streak will need to be snapped if Chris Boyd’s men are to tighten the grip on that coveted 4th place. Bath will be looking to put a spanner in the works as a win for the home side would cloud the race for the Top 4 even more than it currently is.
With Bath out of the European picture, Stuart Hooper’s men have had two weeks off since their last fixture back on April 2nd. From that loss to Exeter three weeks ago, six changes have been made to the starting lineup. Valeriy Morozov and Will Stuart maintain their places in the front row but are joined by Tom Dunn at hooker this time around with Jacques Du Toit demoted to the bench. Will Spencer drops out of the squad altogether and makes way for the heavy-hitting Mike Williams to partner captain Charlie Ewels at lock. In the back row, Sam Underhill and Nathan Hughes are absent which allows Miles Reid to start in his familiar openside flank position with Welsh international Taulupe Faletau deployed at number 8. Just the two changes in the backline see Danny Cipriani take the reigns from Orlando Bailey at fly-half whilst Will Muir starts in favour of Joe Cokanasiga in the 11 jersey. We all know how poorly Bath opened up the season, but since then, we’ve seen small improvements. The West-Country men have only lost one of their last four Premiership games and scored an average of over 26 points per game in that period. Their attack is starting to flow more smoothly than before as the combinations in the backline build week on week and there’s been a clear shift in mentality defensively. Early in the season, Bath would concede tries in bunches to almost every side and that would be the game out of reach, but now they’re starting to string together impressive goal-line stands at times and build some defensive resilience close to their try line. The task this week will be to maintain those efforts whilst also trying to contain Northampton’s lethal long-range attacks. What will be crucial in doing that is their defensive connection between 10, 12 & 13.
After Gloucester’s loss on Friday night, many will consider the Saints to be in the driver’s seat in the final dash to the line for the 4th spot on the ladder. In their bid to win that coveted last playoff spot, a win in this contest would be enormous. Just the three changes have been made from their Challenge Cup tie against Gloucester last week, all of which have been forced changes. The news broke mid-week that Courtney Lawes has suffered a gruesome and subsequently long-term thumb injury that could rule him out for the remainder of the season. Also joining him as an absentee is David Ribbans who was considered ‘unavailable for selection’ in this contest. The jury concluded that Dan Biggar was to serve a three-week ban (reduced to two weeks if he attends tackling school) for his red card last week. In their places, Alex Coles replaces Ribbans at lock, Teimana Harrison slots into the back row for Lawes and Ollie Sleightholme comes into the side for Biggar with Furbank moving to fly-half and Freeman shifting to fullback. The Saints have been somewhat flakey all season, but a huge opportunity has opened up for them to snatch a playoff spot in this final month of the season. Three league wins on the trot has dragged them back into 6th, but a win would see them jump into 4th place temporarily. Against Bath, the game plan should be to keep things simple, the fear is that if the Saints try to push passes and overplay in the wrong areas of the field, they’ll give Bath chances to strike. What has been so good about the Saints in the previous three rounds has been their execution with ball in hand and more importantly, choosing their moments to launch an attack or play for territory. They have the advantage on paper, but they’ll need to bring that attacking excellence in order to topple what has become a more resilient Bath outfit.
The Saints have been very unpredictable this season. The talent is obvious in the side but they seem to shoot themselves in the foot on occasions. In saying that, the last three weeks of the Premiership have been far more consistent. A win in the South-West would go a long way in securing a playoff berth, and we think they can sneak past Bath. Points should be plentiful in this contest, the result will come down to which side can keep their discipline in check throughout and who comes up big in the key moments late in the game.
Prediction: Bath Rugby 27 - 29 Northampton Saints
SARACENS vs EXETER CHIEFS
Sunday 24th April
StoneX Stadium
Two giants of English rugby go head to head on Sunday afternoon with both needing points for different reasons. These sides have played out some classics over the years including the 2016, 2018 & 2019 Premiership finals. Saracens had the wood over the Chiefs in those three contests, but Rob Baxter and his men certainly know what’s needed for victory this week. This matchup always seems to bring the best out of both sides, with Sarries looking to secure a home semi-final and Exeter desperate to keep their playoff hopes alive, there’s a massive amount on the line and we should be in for a colossal contest.
Mark McCall has rung the changes to the starting side from last week’s Challenge Cup victory against Cardiff, making 8 in total. The entire front row is replaced with Eroni Mawi, Jamie George and Vincent Koch starting as Barrington, Pifeleti and Clarey move to the bench. Maro Itoje is absent for this game after picking up a minor knee injury last week, Nick Isiekwe takes his place at lock with Tim Swinson retained in the starting XV. Ben Earl is the only survivor of last week’s back row with Theo McFarland and Billy Vunipola stepping into the 6 and 8 jerseys respectively. Aled Davies and club captain Owen Farrell continue their partnership in the halves but outside of them sees a new an all-international centre pairing this week with Nick Tompkins and Elliot Daly starting. It’s been about as good as you could ask for this season from Saracens after spending last year in the Championship, they simply haven’t missed a beat. They currently sit 2nd on the ladder with the largest points differential in the league, but that elusive home semi-final hasn’t been secured just yet. Thus, this week is vital in keeping Harlequins at bay and ensuring that the road to the final goes through the StoneX stadium. As we’ve said all season, there’s no secret as to how Saracens will look to play. They build their game off of their set-piece and defensive resilience whilst punishing sides who provide them with cheap field position. Aled Davies and Owen Farrell will be looking to kick for territory throughout the game and force the Chiefs into feeling like they need to launch attacks out of their own half, because that’s when the wolfpack mentality in defence kicks in. Mark McCall will be wary of the ball carrying threats Exeter provide in the pack, but Sarries have more than enough firepower to counter with. When we’ve seen Sarries struggle this season it’s been down to their discipline, if they can keep that in check, they’ll go a very long way in securing victory.
Last week saw the Chiefs bow out in their European endeavours after falling to Munster 34-23 on aggregate. Throughout those contests, we witnessed the same issues that have been holding Exeter back all season long and why they are in real danger of not making the playoffs, which is stunning for a side that has played in the last 6 Premiership finals. The attacking issues are evident in the Chiefs side, whilst their ball retention is good, they can’t seem to break down sides and even when they manage to get inside the opposition Red Zone, they seem to run out of ideas. This week they face another juggernaut of European rugby in Saracens and if they have any chance of winning at the StoneX, we’re going to need to see a completely different attacking effort. Rob Baxter has opted for just three changes to the starting lineup from the side that took the field last week at Thomond Park. Upfront, Marcus Street is given the nod at tighthead prop with Harry Williams dropping out of the squad altogether. Street comes straight into the starting XV after not being named in the matchday 23 last week, Patrick Schickerling remains on the bench. The big news in the back row is that Dave Ewers drops out of the squad with Richard Capstick taking up the starting role in his place. The sole change to the backline sees a re-shuffle as Joe Simmonds moves to the bench with Henry Slade shifting from the centres into fly-half, Slade has started at fly-half just 27 times in his career. Tom Hendrickson comes in to fill the void outside of him. The Chiefs were booted out of the 4th spot after Northampton’s come from behind win at Bath yesterday, a win that puts even more pressure on this week’s game. With a bye still to come, the Chiefs will have one game less to play than Northampton and Gloucester meaning it’s imperative that they pick up points this week. If they are to do so, we’ll need to see a completely different attacking display against one of the best defensive teams in Europe.
These two sides have participated in some memorable matchups over the years. Some have been enthralling and high-scoring affairs, whilst others have been gritty and defensive-minded battles. This time around it feels like we are going to see the latter, and that falls perfectly into Saracens’ hands. Mark McCall’s side are one of the best defensive teams in World Rugby, so it takes a special attacking performance, particularly away from home, to break down that wall. What we’ve seen from Exeter from an attacking standpoint across the season doesn’t fill me with hope that they’ll be able to cause Saracens issues in this game. Whilst the Chiefs are desperate for a win to keep their playoff dreams alive, it’s hard to see how they’ll overcome the defensive abilities of Sarries.
Prediction: Saracens 22 - 12 Exeter Chiefs