Gallagher Prem: Round 24 Matchday Preview
NORTHAMPTON SAINTS vs HARLEQUINS
Friday 29th April
Franklin’s Gardens
19:45
A head-to-head top 4 clash awaits at the Gardens. Two in-form sides playing fast-paced running rugby square off in a 3rd v 4th battle that has neutrals frothing and faithfuls fretting. Northampton comes into this fixture having won four on the trot, regaining full control of their destiny and steering the ship for 4th place. Nonetheless, the pressure is on them as just one blip will get the chasing pack right into it - Saints are just 1 point ahead of 5th & 6th. Harlequins, on the other hand, are just 5 points away from ensuring mathematical qualification, however they have a lot to gain in terms of where they qualify, with the 2nd still a possibility and 4th not excluded yet.
Northampton had a rough patch not long ago, but they have turned it around since their narrow round 19 loss to Gloucester. Last week’s come from behind victory against Bath showed a tenacity that was missing in the first half of 2022, and spells well for their play-off desires. This week, Chris Boyd has made 6 changes to take on the high-flying Quins, benefitting from a number of key cogs’ timely return. The front-row sees a wholesale change with last week's impact bench trio of Iyogun, Haywood and Carey being rewarded with starts. The other change to the pack is the shock return of club Stalwart Courtney Lawes who makes a miraculous recovery from a compound fracture in his thumb, suffered just two weeks ago. His return pushes Captain Ludlam to openside and Teimana Harrison out of the matchday squad. Notably, young loanee Aaron Hinkley could make his Premiership debut with the Green, Yellow and Black hoops off the bench.
The backs are shaken up from last week, with the key return of Fraser Dingwall from injury causing a reshuffle. Matt Proctor shifts out to the left-wing, Furbank drops to fullback and Tommy Freeman moves to the right-wing. James Grayson takes up the vacant 10 jersey, whilst Rory Hutchinson and Alex Mitchell are the only two retaining the same numbered jersey from last week. The latter also being the key cog to this side's success this season and quite likely the form player of the Premiership with a league-leading 22 try involvements (10T & 12TAs).
Northampton will need to improve their discipline if they want to take Quins on. The Saints have conceded the most penalties this season (271) whilst Quins have been the most obedient side (198). Given Quins’ ability to score from all areas of the field, gifting them territory or giving them ‘get-out-of-jail-cards’ whilst in their red-zone will lead to a one-way result.
The key battle in the game though will come in Saints’ ability to use their exhaustive width-to-width phase play. Ludlam, Lawes and the engine-room duo of Ratuniyarawa and Coles will be crucial in ensuring that Harlequins have little chance to turnover the ball in midfield where Andre Esterhuizen (most turnovers this season - 14) awaits. Ball-retention is crucial for Northampton’s attack as well as an insurance against Quins’ lethal counter-attacking abilities.
Harlequins, similar to Saints, come into this fixture in galvanising form. Having previously lost 3 in a row, Quins are now on a 6 game win streak including last week’s win against league-leaders Leicester Tigers. Tabai Matson has said that the focus this week would be balanced between stifling Northampton’s width and attacking ability as well as focusing on utilising their own attacking strengths. Quins have been very good this season at tailoring their gameplan, without reinventing themselves, according to their opponents. For example, last week they employed a much more direct game paired with a tactical kicking battle before exploiting their more innate intentions in key moments. This week, we expect to see the more ‘traditional’ Quins looking to be aggressive in Defence, forcing turnovers and attacking from all areas of the pitch. Unsurprisingly, in this regard the Quins backroom staff has opted for the 5-3 bench split as opposed to last week’s 6-2 split. Along with this three changes have been made to the lineup, with Wilco Louw starting at tighthead over Collier and Simon Kerrod filling in in Joe Marler’s absence. The last change comes in the back-row as Tom Lawday starts at openside ahead of Luke Wallace who reverts to the bench.
A high-scoring affair awaits at the Gardens both sides have a lot to play for and recent skirmishes between these two teams have led to plenty of classics. Northampton’s ability to move the point of attack has made defences struggle to keep up with the pace of their mobile pack, and explosive backs. Along with their gameplay abilities, they will be motivated by a hungry midlands crowd and the knowledge that a win would take them very close to ensuring a top-4 finish and a nice send off for Coach Boyd. Nonetheless, Harlequins are known to be party poopers. Their defensive structure is built to put teams’ ability to go wide under pressure and allow their attack to capitalise on those opportunities. Both sides possess a tidy set-piece so the game will be won in other areas of the field. It is hard to look past Harlequins’ world-class side and we think they edge the contest in a few key individual match-ups.
Prediction: Northampton Saints 33 - 38 Harlequins
SALE SHARKS vs NEWCASTLE FALCONS
Friday 29th April
AJ Bell
19:45
A northern derby at the AJ Bell on Friday Night smells like teen spirit - physicality and defence will be the calling cards. Sale have had a largely disappointing season having been unable to find continuity throughout the season as injuries have plagued their roster and their Premiership hopes have faded as a result. Nonetheless, they are still a part of the chasing pack, albeit the furthest, looking to make an unlikely playoff appearance. 7 points adrift from Saints at the top, it is unlikely, but greater miracles have been made and Sale have the personnel to make that happen. Newcastle have also had a disappointing season, especially considering that they had a promising start with 4 of their 5 wins this season all coming in the first 2 months of the Premiership. They have however been more successful away from home this season so they might be looking to spoil the Mancunians hopes of making the top 4.
Sale welcome back a few key names, but they are still missing a number of stars and their season has truly been put off by inconsistent selection. Alex Sanderson’s side have still managed to be decent throughout the season and their mathematical chance for a play-off spot is a testament to the depth of this side. This week 5 changes have been made to the starting lineup with JP Du Preez stepping into the second-row and Ben Curry taking up the 7 jersey. In the backs, Rob Du Preez and Rohan Janse Van Rensburg are welcomed back and form a South African 9-10-12 trio together with captain Faf De Klerk. Lastly, Jack Metcalf is back on the left wing and will be looking to continue his super try-scoring run. Key player Tom Curry could be eased back from the bench for his first game since an injury sustained playing for England.
The Sharks are not an unpredictable side. The stats show that they truly are the most physical side in the Premiership. They’ve made 151 Dominant tackles throughout the season, good enough for second, and boast one of the heaviest packs in the Premiership. Their work around the ruck is the bedrock of their attack and defence, where the likes of the Curry and Du Preez twins feast on both sides of the ball. Yet, Bevan Rodd has actually been the most prolific turnover machine not just for the Club but also joint-top in the league with 14 breakdown turnovers, seriously impressive stuff from the Loosehead. On the other hand, whilst Newcastle are certainly a ‘defensive’ side, they have not managed anywhere near Sale’s defensive dominance. In fact, the Falcons sit last in dominant tackles this season (59) and that suggests that Sale will be targeting ball-carriers down the middle of the park.
Newcastle have struggled to string together a consistent series of winning performances, succumbing to a 14-man London Irish side at home last week. Whilst they can’t play for any silverware they have a lot of pride to salvage with the bottom end of the table getting ever tighter. The Falcons are just 3 points above Bath in last, who have really started to pick up their performance levels. Dean Richards’ deserves a proper send off and securing even a losing bonus point would probably feel like a win for the Newcastle outfit. A few injuries sustained in last week's clash has led to 5 changes. Penny, Wacokecoke, Brocklebank, Lockwood and Basham. All of whom featured last week are all unavailable through injury and thus the changes have been made accordingly. The backs see a reshuffle with Tait filling in for Penny, Radwan takes the wing spot as Ben Stevenson shuffles inside in the absence of Wacokecoke and Matias Orlando is the new name in the midfield. In the pack, Palframan fills in at tighthead as Davison swaps over to the loosehead. Lastly, Gary Graham fills in for the injured Basham at blindside. Falcons’ must return to the roots of their early season success. They still boast one of the tidiest set-pieces with the league second-best Scrum (92% Success Rate) and a top 4 lineout.
This game has only a veil of meaning for the larger picture of the competition. Newcastle are fighting to symbolically avoid last spot, and the Sharks are pushing for an unlikely playoff qualification. Sale have had a shaky season and historically their games with Newcastle have been close with only 3 of the last 22 league matches between Newcastle and Sale being decided by 9 or more points. Nonetheless, Sale have too much quality across the park and their motivation to make the top 4 paired with a healthy crowd at the AJ Bell fortress should be enough to propel the Sharks’ hopes for one more week.
Prediction: Sale Sharks 28 - 12 Newcastle Falcons
Gloucester Rugby vs Bath Rugby
Saturday 30th April
Kingsholm
15:00
The West-Country derby pits two opposite ends of the table against each other, but league standings couldn’t be a farther reflection of the truth when it comes to predicting this outcome. Gloucester are still very much in the top 4 hunt, though their upcoming games make for a tough run into the playoffs. Meaning that this derby has added weight in terms of its importance for their season’s success. Bath on the other hand will be looking for revenge. The Rec faithfull have had it rough with the Cherry & Whites lately losing 20-40 in the reverse fixture against their bitter rivals. However, whilst this season has largely been a youthful rebuild, Bath have really started to find some identity and crucially some form. A derby is a derby and this will be no different, the team that handles the pressure best will come out on top.
Gloucester, after being the form side in the middle patch of the season, has come back down to earth lately. Their ‘fundamentals’ style of play has been exposed lately with teams getting the better of them in their last 3 outings including 2 of which where they were leading at the interval. Nonetheless, this side is still one of the ‘tough’ sides to beat in the Premiership. Their relentless defence and efficient set-piece attack has given them a killer ‘serve and volley’ type of attack whereby they are so clinical in their execution that they hardly need possession in other areas of the field. For this week’s task Skivington has made 4 changes, all of which come in the pack. Specifically, the front-row sees wholesale change with Elrington, Singleton and Gotovtsev forming the all-new front-row. Ben Morgan is the new name in the back-row at no.8 and Ruan Ackermann shifts to the blindside.
Gloucester possess the 4th best tackle success rate (87%) in the Premiership and they will need to maintain that high standard as Bath have shown throughout the season, even during their abysmal losing streak, that they do have the ability to score tries from all over the park. In fact, Bath has made the 4th most linebreaks (121) this season. Gloucester however, have shown their comfort in playing without the ball (47% league-lowest) and will be looking to absorb Bath’s searing attacking options. On the offensive end, we don’t foresee Bath containing Gloucester’s prolific rolling maul, so if they can force some ill-discipline from Bath and march up the field, they should be in good stead to score a few ‘easy’ tries.
Bath have really picked things up in the back end of the season. Having lost all of their games from September to December, they are currently on a W4-D1-L5 streak in 2022. A marked improvement from the start of the season, especially considering that 2 of their losses were decided by less than 5 points. In this season, they have developed their youngsters and now have managed to turn some good performances into wins. This week, Stuart Hooper has made just two changes to the side that lost to Northampton last week. Sam Underhill comes into the starting side in place of Josh Bayliss and Joe Cokanasiga replaces Semesa Rokoduguni on the right wing. The rest of the starting XV is unchanged and will be looking to get an away scalp and morale boosting derby victory. For Bath the route to success is about discipline and red zone efficiency. They know that they will likely dominate possession for this game, but the key will be where that possession is and how they can turn it into points. Aimless phase play will lead to frustration and ultimately play into Gloucester’s hands. Ben Spencer & Danny Cipriani will have to employ a deft kicking game to keep Gloucester on the back foot, and make sure that Bath’s attack does not stagnate - if the possession isn’t leading to inroads or try-scoring opportunities that’s a cue to turn Gloucester’s pack back and let the likes of Muir & Cokanasiga give chase.
The derby element of this game makes it often difficult to predict, as sometimes the teams who are better able to utilise the pressures of the derby atmosphere come away with the goods. Rugbystically speaking, Gloucester are the better side, they have been throughout the season and have demonstrated it time and again. Their absorbing play-style and strike rate make them a frustratingly difficult team to contain and overall we think they will be able to inflict that superiority to come away with a win.
Prediction: Gloucester 28 - 22 Bath
LEICESTER TIGERS vs BRISTOL BEARS
Saturday 30th April
Mattioli Woods Welford Road
15:00
Two sides at opposite ends of the table, and two sides with opposite styles of rugby. Leicester are hoping to secure 1st place in the league, whilst Bristol simply have pride on the line. What bodes well for the Bears is that they were the last side to beat the Tigers at Welford Road, the bad news is that was last June and this time around Leicester are in sensational form. If you thought the odds were stacked against Bristol before, just wait until you see the team Steve Borthwick has named…
After some rotation in the squad last week, Borthwick isn’t messing around this time around. The Tigers have gone full noise in the hope to keep Saracens at bay and secure that top spot in the table, as a result, 9 changes have been made to the starting XV from last week. The entire front row is replaced with Genge, Montoya and Cole all starting to form one of, if not the best, front row’s in the Premiership. Behind them, Harry Wells is deployed in the second row after his bench stint last week, he joins Calum Green who retains his starting spot. Vice-Captain Hanro Liebenberg is the only survivor of the back row, next to him Tommy Reffell returns on the openside as well as fellow Springbok Jasper Wiese at Number 8. The backline features three changes with Guy Porter back from suspension to slot into the centres, Chris Ashton starts on the wing still looking to become the all-time leading try-scorer in Premiership history and Freddie Steward is back in the 15 shirt.
The Tigers haven’t lost a league game at home all season, and they’ll be desperate to keep it that way. We’ve sung Leicester’s plaudits throughout the season and by now, you should know what the Tigers game plan is. They have kicked the most out of any side this season and they are the best defensive team in the league. They pin you into your own territory, win collisions and force mistakes. As well as looking to secure 1st place, this game boasts extra motivation for the Tigers as it’s the first since Leicester legend Tom Youngs announced his retirement, no doubt that will be used to add fuel to the fire.
Bristol are left with nothing meaningful to play for at the back end of the season as they currently sit in 10th, which is where they’ll likely finish. So, when a game seems meaningless, coaches must divert to finding different motivations to ensure that these games aren’t wasted and that it helps galvanise the squad before next season. This week though it won’t be hard to find motivation as club stalwart Joe Joyce makes his 150th appearance for the Bears, and Harry Thacker plays in his 100th Premiership game. Those two players, Joyce in particular, are hugely influential figures in the squad so there is no concern that the Bears won’t be fired up as they look to make their afternoons even more special with an unexpected upset. Joe Joyce’s inclusion into the side is one of five changes made by Pat Lam from last week’s win over Gloucester. Four of those changes come in the backs department with Joyce the only replacement in the forwards. England scrum-half Harry Randall starts after appearing on the bench last week, he’ll be tasked with creating all sorts of havoc around the fringes of the ruck. Elsewhere, Henry Purdy comes onto the blindside wing, Jack Bates replaces the injured Antoine Frisch in the centres, and Charles Piutau makes his first start for a number of weeks at fullback.
There are no illusions as to which squad comes into this game as favourites. The Tigers are top of the league and haven’t lost at home all season, whilst the Bears are down in 10th having won just one away game in 21/22. On top of that, Leicester haven’t pulled any punches with their selection and need to win in order to keep Saracens at arm's length. The Tigers are a much more physical side, have a better set-piece, are ruthless in defence and have Ben Youngs and George Ford to pull the strings off the back of guaranteed go forward. We’d be stunned if Leicester didn’t come away with all 5 points in this one.
Prediction: Leicester Tigers 33 - 16 Bristol Bears
WORCESTER WARRIORS vs SARACENS
Saturday 30th April
Sixways
15:00
The Warriors enter off the high of securing a place in the Prem Rugby Cup final having beaten Gloucester on Wednesday night. They’ll need to feed off that momentum (and more) if they are to pose a threat to the machine that is Saracens. Mark McCall’s side have won five on the bounce as they look to perfect the art of ‘peaking at the right time’. They trail the league-leaders Leicester by just 4 points, so they’ll be eager to keep on winning and add some unwanted pressure on the Tigers. The reverse fixture saw Saracens score 61 points at the StoneX, which included a 40 point first half.
In terms of results, it’s been another season to forget for Worcester. The wheels are in motion for the rebuild plan next season with Steve Diamond taking over full time, having already announced seven new signings for the club. Aside from the results, the shining light for Worcester has been the emergence of youngsters like Fin Smith & Noah Heward, two players that I’m sure will play big roles for the club in the future. With this serving as the penultimate game for the Warriors, they’ll also be desperate to pick up points to ensure they stay above Bath at the bottom of the table, who trail them by a single point. Six changes have been rung from last week’s 41-12 loss to Wasps, with a number of players also unavailable as they featured in the Warriors’ midweek Prem Rugby Cup semi-final. The pack features just two changes with Scottish international Rory Sutherland included at Loosehead Prop and Matt Kvesic returns from a 9 week layoff to replace Sam Lewis in the back row. Gareth Simpson earns the starting role at scrum-half after his Man of the Match performance in the Prem Rugby Cup semi-final on Wednesday evening. The final two changes come in the back three with Tom Howe replacing Alex Hearle on the wing and Harri Doel at fullback for Noah Heward.
Saracens are back to their old selves. There may not have been much doubt coming into the season that they would get back to their best, but any doubt has been fully squashed. Sarries have been in this position countless times over the past few seasons, so they know exactly how to treat these last three rounds of the league in preparation for their Semi-Final. Part of that is selection consistency, having a side play together for the last month of the season is crucial. Thus, just two changes have been made to the starting XV from last week’s win over Exeter. The sole change in the pack sees Scottish international Andy Christie deployed on the blindside flank in place of Tim Swinson with Theo McFarland moving into the second row. In the backs, Alex Goode is given a well-earned rest so Rotimi Segun features on the wing with Malins taking up the role of fullback this week. No side in the Premiership has scored more tries originating from lineouts than Saracens this season, and guess who has conceded the most tries stemming from that area, Worcester. No doubt that’s going to be a real target area in the red zone.
Instead of painting a faint picture as to how Worcester could sneak a victory, I’ll instead say this, a Warriors win this weekend would quite comfortably be the upset of the season. These are two squads at completely different stages of development with Diamond’s squad in a rebuilding and developing phase, whilst Saracens are in title mode. When Saracens are in title mode, they don’t slip up against sides near the bottom of the table. Close your eyes Worcester fans, this should be one-way traffic at Sixways as Sarries keep snapping at the heels of the league leaders.
Prediction: Worcester Warriors 10 - 36 Saracens
LONDON IRISH vs WASPS
Sunday 1st May
Brentford Community Stadium
15:00
We’ve got seriously high hopes for this one. Two sides with world-class talent littered throughout their squads, both looking to play with pace and take on the defence. There are mouth-watering head to head matchups all over the field, all of those ‘mini-battles’ are why this game is so intriguing. As for the form of these sides, Wasps have won their last 6 games in all competition, whilst the Exiles have scored 165 points in their last three games. It’s poised to be a back and forth, high-scoring affair as most contests at the BCS are.
After handing opportunities to youngsters against Leicester in the Premiership Cup on Tuesday night, the Exiles have reverted back to their top dogs, making just two changes to the starting XV from the one that beat Newcastle last weekend. The backline remains unchanged with both changes coming in the pack. Former England U20s representative George Nott comes into the second row this week with Adam Coleman unavailable. At the back of the scrum, Sean O’Brien is promoted off the bench to start in favour of Fijian international Albert Tuisue. The Fiji International will be expected to bring on a late impact with potentially momentum-shifting effect. The selection continuity in the backline is testament to the success of this side, which is really firing on all cylinders in terms of attacking output. The international duo of Phipps and Jackson have linked forward play with their electric finishers well and they have both been using their running game effectively. The midfield features one of the most solid and underrated duos with Janse Van Rensburg and Rona both providing rock-solid defence as well as hard-nosed attack. The latter also running clever searing lines more often than not.
Lee Blackett has made just three changes to his starting side from their blowout victory against Worcester. This week, Tom West and Biyi Alo find themselves with a new front row partner as Gabe Oghre is back in the starting lineup with Dan Frost moving to the bench. The ex U20 RWC finalist has the highest lineout success rate in the league with 105/111 successful throws (95%), that solidity will be called upon in this test. Especially in tandem with the industrious second-row partnership of Joe Launchbury and Elliott Stooke, who will be tasked with securing their own set-piece whilst disrupting London Irish’s. Wasps have the best lineout in the league and Stooke has been the most disruptive jumper with 16 steals to his name, the third most out of any player in the Premiership this season. Behind them, one change comes in the back row as Alfie Barbeary drops out of the matchday 23 and Tom Willis takes his place at number 8. Shields and the Willis brothers will be vital in this battle, if they can cause havoc at the breakdown and slow Irish’s ball down, they’ll go a long way to winning this game. The Exiles are at their best with quick ball and runners in motion, if the back row can halt that momentum causing a nuisance at the ruck and winning turnovers, we could see frustration start to creep in for the Exiles. The final change to the lineup sees the return of Francois Hougaard on the wing after a lengthy stint on the sidelines, his inclusion shifts Zach Kibirige to fullback and the out of favour Jacob Umaga to the bench.
We’ve gone back and forth countless times on our prediction for this game because it’s such a beautifully balanced matchup. The battles in every different aspect of the game present so many scenarios and different paths to victory for each side.
London Irish win this game if their defence shows up. We’ve seen excellent defence from Declan Kidney’s side sporadically this season, but it hasn’t been consistent at all. When we have seen the Exiles’ defence under pressure in games, they don’t seem to adjust and frustration kicks in, which then has a result on their attack. However, when Irish are at the races defensively, they’re incredibly hard to defeat because their attack feeds off of the energy they create.
Wasps certainly have the attacking capabilities to put Irish under all sorts of pressure, especially from set-piece opportunities. They have the best lineout success in the Premiership and at the back end of this season, the lineout has become a real scoring threat. With Adam Coleman absent the Exiles lose a key leader in the set-piece, it’s going to be a real challenge for the home side to quash that aspect of Wasps’ attack. Overall, this game should be a stormer, there’s world-class matchups all over the park and both sides have advantages in different aspects of the game. Ultimately we sided with London Irish, but this game is the definition of a 50/50 game and we can’t wait to sit back and enjoy the battle that unfolds.
Basically, we have absolutely no idea who’s gonna win, mad $#!% happens at the BCS.
Prediction: London Irish 34 - 33 Wasps