Round 7: Matchday Preview
GLOUCESTER vs EXETER CHIEFS
Friday 29th October
Kingsholm
19:45
A big Friday night clash under the Kingsholm lights kicks-off Round 7 of the Gallagher Premiership. The first 6 rounds have taught us that the past few years of hierarchy are being re-evaluated and that on their day anyone has a chance of making an upset, home or away. Both sides have managed to retain a number of current and former internationals in their starting lineups despite the international window looming. This will be a titanic clash where the physical, tactical and skillset of both sides will be tested to the max.
Gloucester have impressed so far in the season. They have been far from perfect, but after a shaky start they have rallied behind a solid pack and dominant rolling maul. Their tactical defensive flaws are still, at times, prevalent in their performance, but their defensive work-rate has been second to none. In addition to the pack’s hard yards, Meehan and Hasting have been orchestrating the territorial battle very well, ensuring that Glocuester play in the right areas of the pitch and capitalise on opportunities. They’ve named a strong lineup, with firepower aplenty on the wings and grit in the pack. In a rotational change, Balmain and Davidson return to the starting lineup in place of Govotsev and Alemanno. In the backs, Scotland International Adam Hastings is back in the starting 10 jersey, with Lloyd reverting to the bench once again. To round up the 5 starting changes, May and Atkinson are away on England duty giving an opportunity to club Stalwart Billy Twelvetrees and young Santiago Carreras a chance at 12 and 11 respectively.
Gloucester will no doubt be rallying behind the crowd at the Shed to get their first major scalp of the season and add another win to their current tally of 3. Unsurprisingly, they will use the ball-carrying abilities of Ackermann, Morgan and Rapava-Ruskin to dent Exeter’s unusually weak defence. The expectation being that if they can get opportunities in Exeter’s half through penalties they can use Hastings boot and their dangerous rolling maul to punish the Chiefs. As showcased by London Irish, it is not necessary to hoard possession against this current Chiefs side who is struggling to score with the efficiency they found last season. This means that the likes of Ludlow, Clarke and also Chris Harris will be looking to out on a tackling showcase. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a few Gloucester players finish the game in excess of 15+ tackles.
The Chiefs have now lost twice at Sandy Park and three times this season. Whilst it is far from alarm bells ringing time, the manner of their losses has been quite worrying. Exeter’s defence has been leaking soft tries and their one-on-one defence has been subpar, especially for their standards. In addition to their defensive struggles, their attack has looked predictable and stale at times, bar a few well-worked tries from set-piece or individual brilliance. For this clash, Rob Baxter has opted to swing the axe on Joe Simmonds once again, with Harvey Skinner named to make his 4th start of the season. It is an unsurprising decision based on Simmonds current form. The attack under his control has looked lateral and indecisive, whilst with Skinner it has been more direct. Skinner sparked a little comeback in last week’s loss to Irish and has been rewarded for his maturity and talents. To replace the England crop, Baxter has selected Lonsdale at lock, and Armand at openside with Capstick moving to number 8. In the backs, Hendrickson shifts into the 13 jersey made vacant by Slade’s absence and Ollie Devoto is back in the starting XV. Lastly, Facundo Cordero is back from a niggle and starts on the left wing ahead of O’Flaherty who is omitted from the matchday 23.
Exeter will be looking to react. Expect them to come out firing looking to tame Gloucester’s pack and stretch their defence. The dual playmaker presence of Skinner plus Devoto could bring more ball-playing ability at the line with Hendrickson and Nowell providing dynamic injections. If the pack lays the platform, Skinner is capable of effectively mobilising the weapons out wide. The key being isolating Gloucester defenders in the midfield and forcing them to make tough reads. The out the back threats of Hogg and Cordero, could open up a difficult to defend hard line channel for Hendrickson to exploit.
This game will be a real test, both sides are missing a few key players but retain equally important stars. Given Exeter’s recent difficulties in attack and defence, and the massive home advantage that Kingsholm provides, we’ve got Gloucester to edge it in a tough battle. The potent pack should take control of the game, their defensive work rate will exhaust Exeter’s attacking options and their rolling maul will benefit from the tactical nous off the boots of Hastings and Meehan.
Prediction: Gloucester 28 - 24 Exeter
BATH vs WASPS
Saturday 30th October
The Rec
15:00
Bath are still winless after the opening 6 rounds of the Premiership. They return to the Rec with an expectation to register their first win of the season as well as rectifying the abysmal display suffered at the hands of Sarries a fortnight ago.
Wasps have had a tumultuous start to the season. They, like Bath, are in a bit of an injury/availability crisis and are similarly looking to bounce back from a convincing loss to Saracens.
Bath were vastly improved last week against Quins, but 19 unanswered second-half points put them to the sword. They still lack defensive resilience and their attack can become stale and error-prone when not perfectly in sync. This week they will be hoping to be more precise in their ball handling, consistent in their defence and most importantly accurate in the set-piece. They are Obano, Stuart, Ewels, Ellis, Underhill, Faletau, Spencer, McConnochie and Watson due to injury/unavailability and this will further complicate their task. The absence of Underhill, Bath’s best defender, will mean that Miles Reid has big boots to fill. Bath need a passionate performance to win this game, and that always starts from defending with character and putting bodies on the line. Wasps have shown that their defensive tenacity has kept them in games despite their notable absence. Bath are going to have to exceed the intensity of their opponents. They will need to get the crowd firing again and look to edge their way back, carry by carry and tackle by tackle into this unforgiving Gallagher Premiership.
On the offensive end, Bath can unleash their individual talents only once they have ploughed through the middle of Wasps’ defence. They must make ruck retention their priority, Wasps have shown that they are extremely lethal on the counter-attack, feasting off of errors. Bath ought to play a tactical kicking game that keeps Wasps pinned into their 22. Their first point of attack should be their defence aiming to force Wasps to kick out of their half and use lineouts and counter attacks to launch their silky runners. They cannot gift Wasps opportunities, and conversely, must be clinical in their own right. The key to this game for Bath will be whether or not Orlando Bailey can control the game sufficiently and get them operating in the right parts of the field.
Wasps come off a heavy defeat at the hands of Saracensalbeit with a heavily rotated side. This week they welcome back a host of key players, and this should put them back in good stead. Even with a severely understrength side, they held their own for large parts of the game against Saracens and showed that if given the opportunity, this team can score tries in the blink of an eye.
This week they welcome back a whole host of rested starters, and this alone should be enough to beat a weakened and demoralised Bath side. A win at the Rec for Wasps, regardless of Bath’s current situation, would be a significant scalp and Lee Blackett’s men will not let the chance go beginning. Their game plan will be to exploit the skillset of their pack and look to mobilize and test Bath’s erratic defence. Wasps finishers are always a threat and they will be waiting to pounce on the opportunities created by the likes of Robson, Fifita and Willis probing and carrying in the tight. Defensively Wasps have been impressive this season. Matt Everard, Wasps new defence coach, has really worked wonders in this side patching what was the most porous defence in the league last season into the 6th best defence in the league so far. That’s especially impressive considering they’ve just come off a 50+ point drubbing by Saracens whilst fielding an understrength side. The key to their success has been their unity and their ability to target the breakdown accurately. Thomas Young and Tom Willis have been menacing over the ball and they will be looking to inflict the same type of pressure on Bath. Last week Bath were vastly improved, but their attack was still prone to jackaling turnovers once they got half line breaks. If Wasps can chop Bath’s momentum and absorb their misfiring attack, they’ll capitalise on mistakes to make easy work of a Bath side lacking accuracy and direction.
I am expecting Bath to react and put in a courageous performance. Yet, I am not convinced in their system and their absences compared to Wasps’ make me worry that they will continue winless for at least another round. Wasps have shown that despite their large list of unavailable players, their defence and counter-attacking abilities has kept them within striking distance in most games, and they pipped a pair of precious wins. Wasps look in a better place, their team is better on paper, and although Bath are at home and will be playing with a passion, we’re predicting a Wasps win.
Prediction: Bath 25 - 29 Wasps
LONDON IRISH vs BRISTOL BEARS
Saturday 30th October
Brentford Community Stadium
15:00
The Exiles return to the Brentford Community Stadium with their first win of the season. They host a bye-rested Bristol side that has struggled to find any form this season. The two teams have not started the season as they would have wished, but their recent performances have stark differences. London Irish drew two games that could have easily and probably should have been good victories, plus they are coming off a monumental away win at Sandy Park against the Exeter Chiefs. Their recent playing style has been encouraging and if they can keep this momentum they will be a tough side to beat during this international window where teams are missing international stars.
London Irish have named a pretty intact starting XV, with just 4 changes to last week's side. In our preseason preview, we highlighted how London Irish’s player retention during the international windows could be a key point of difference in their season and they must capitalise on this period. Mike Willemse gets his first start for the club with Agustin Creevy moving to the bench after 6 consecutive starts. Isaac Curtis-Harris also returns to the back row after missing out last week to replace Tom Pearson. In the backs, Benhard Janse Van Rensburg gets the nod at 12 whilst James Stokes replaces Ben Loader on the right-wing. For the Bristol game, Irish will look to continue their defensive tenacity as well as their red-zone efficiency. This side has shown throughout the season that when they ‘turn it on’ both in attack and defence they are pure class. The key to beating Bristol will be limiting Bristol’s momentum. Bristol have struggled to get over the gainline and have only found success in the limited occasions where they were on an attacking roll. If Rogerson, Tuisue and Mafi can produce a similarly valiant defensive display like last week, they’ll have no issue stopping Bristol’s runners. In the backs, Janse Van Rensburg and Rona have locked up the midfield, and with Bristol still missing Radradra, as long as they aren’t facing big mismatches they should keep everything tidy.
In attack, this side has some great attributes. The Exiles possess a skilful and mobile pack, that not only makes the hard yards but often looks for a variety of tip passes, offloads, and out the back linkages with Paddy Jackson. The backline is well-orchestrated hosting a direct midfield and explosive back three.
Bristol come back refreshed from their bye week but missing a couple of their stars. Randall and Sinckler have both been called up to the England Squad and are thus unavailable. Uren and Afoa will take their places and look to provide the same tempo and power respectively. The Bears have not looked like their usual flamboyant selves, struggling to score effectively and defending very poorly. Pat Lam has reflected on this period as a ‘learning curve’ and expects his side to grow and make the most out of the difficulties faced in the season so far. A fortnight has passed since their last fixture, but be sure that the emphasis will have been on ruck retention and straightening the attack. Too often this season, this side has either gone lateral too early or when making inroads given away a jackal penalty. Irish showed last week that they have the ability to quell long periods of attack if they are not creative and engaging defenders.
The quality of Bristol’s attack will indirectly help their defence. If they are able to hold possession for strong periods of time and challenge Irish, not only will their defensive effort be reduced, but their attack will set them apart. Missing Sinckler does mean that they will also need to ensure that the set-piece is solid.
This game could be a high-scoring shootout, especially if Bristol gets momentum at times. If that’s the case it really could go either way. However, given the higher number of quality players in Irish’s lineup this week whilst also taking into consideration the form that Irish showed last week means that we’ve got the Exiles to win it. Their composure last week was what they had been missing in the previous 5 rounds, and if they can string another 80-minute performance, their defence should contain Bristol and their attack has a bonus-point scoring display written all over it.
Prediction: London Irish 33 - 29 Bristol Bears
NORTHAMPTON SAINTS vs LEICESTER TIGERS
Saturday 30th October
Franklin’s Gardens
15:00
Franklin’s Gardens hosts a highly anticipated East Midlands derby with both sides coming into the fixture sitting in the Top 4 of the Premiership. The Saints will be looking to build upon last week’s 56 point win over Worcester, albeit with numerous changes to the side. The Tigers have been resilient all season, their squad depth has shone through as Steve Borthwick’s side are perched on top of the table with a perfect 6/6 record. This game is going to be brutally physical with both sides looking to get another important win over their rivals.
After losing to Wasps before their bye in week 6, Northampton responded in a scintillating fashion with a 66-10 demolition of Worcester. Chris Boyd has spoken about his side maintaining and replicating those types of performances week in week out, as we saw when the Saints are on song, they can humiliate sides. So, Northampton will be looking for another complete performance against their toughest challenge this season in the top of the table Tigers. The Saints will be missing a number of key players for this contest. Lawes, Ludlam, Furbank and Freeman are unavailable for this game as all are away in England training camp. Thus, club stalwart Tom Wood starts at blindside flanker with Chris Boyd deploying Teimana Harrison at 7 and Juarno ‘Trokkie’ Augustus at number 8. It’s clear how important the back row battle will be for this contest. So, there is no surprise that Chris Boyd has opted to play both Harrison and Augustus in the starting lineup, the two will be expected to bring immense physicality to disrupt Leicester’s attack. In the backs, Rory Hutchinson is given the job at fullback with the absence of Furbank and Freeman whilst Matt Proctor importantly returns in the 13 jersey looking to pick up right where he left off pre-injury.
On the attacking side for the Saints this game, it will be about maintaining their execution from last week under the enormous defensive pressure the Tigers provide. Mitchell and Biggar will need to be on song, they’ll need to stay composed and not allow Leicester to settle into their defensive patterns. With rain likely, expect a heavy kicking game from Biggar looking to unsettle Burns at fullback and win field position for his side. Upfront, the pack can’t allow the likes of Wiese and Van Staden opportunities for turnover ball. If the Saints can build phases of play in attack and not keep giving Leicester cheap ball, Biggar’s expert kicking can steer them to a win. On the defensive side, it’s all about matching the Tigers’ physicality, the Saints can’t afford to allow their big ball carriers to punch through holes and give Ford the quick ball he craves. Another aspect will be Rory Hutchinson, I’m expecting an aerial attack from Ford and company so his ability to deal with the high ball will be tested frequently.
We’ve sung the praises of this Tigers side all season, their squad depth is scary and this side is stringing together high-quality performances, proving they are the team to beat this year. Steve Borthwick has made a number of changes from last week’s win over Sale. Francois Van Wyk replaces club captain Ellis Genge at tighthead prop, the former Saint will look to assert dominance in the scrum against his former side. Hanro Liebenberg’s injury paves the way for young Ollie Chessum to start in the 6 jersey, Eli Snyman is also preferred in the second row over Calum Green who moves to the bench. In the backs, Richard Wigglesworth starts in place of Ben Youngs who is away with England whilst Freddie Burns gets his second start at fullback this season in Steward’s absence. The Tigers have taken some big scalps this year, however, a win in this East Midlands derby without their England cohort would be their biggest of the season. With a forecast of rain, expect the Tigers to revert to their power game. The big forwards will look to win collisions and put constant pressure on Northampton’s ruck ball, if they can win turnover ball or force penalties out of Northampton in that middle third of the pitch then look for them to pin the Saints back and launch attacking raids from their set-piece. I’m also expecting a kicking masterclass from Ford, with Hutchinson’s little experience at fullback Ford will no doubt be putting him under a microscope with high balls and kicks tyring to exploit bad positioning.
This is going to be an almighty battle. I’m expecting an aerial barrage from Wigglesworth and Ford onto Rory Hutchinson at fullback, the Saints ability to deal with the high ball will be a huge factor in this contest. Upfront, the battle of the back rows will be key, whichever side can assert dominance in the collision will have the upper hand in this game. No doubt this matchup will come down to the key moments, with both sides being so evenly matched it will be about who can execute better in crunch time. Overall, I give the edge to Leicester for this game, they’ve proven their ability to sneak home in close games whilst not playing to their potential and I think they can do the same here to match their best-ever start to a Premiership season.
Prediction: Northampton Saints 19 - 20 Leicester Tigers
WORCESTER WARRIORS vs SALE SHARKS
Saturday 30th October
Sixways
15:00
Sixways hosts a battle between two sides in the bottom half of the table, a win for either will be hugely important but in different ways. The Warriors desperately need to turn in a spirited performance after a run of embarrassing outings, there are questions over the direction of the club and after three heavy defeats in a row, the Warriors experienced players need to step up. They come up against a Sale side who have a number of key players re-entering the fold. Alex Sanderson’s side have been inconsistent on the whole this year, however, with internationals and injured players returning to the picture, this side needs to prove they can turn in strong performances week in week out.
The Warriors have been abysmal in their last three outings, losing by an aggregate score of 158-18. At times it’s looked like the Warriors have never played together with players constantly out of position defensively and the team showing a lack of intent with their carries in attack. Nevertheless, with key players returning this week the Warriors will be looking to turn their season around. Scott Baldwin, Matt Garvey and Ted Hill all return in the forward pack looking to give this side some momentum upfront and compete with the South African filled Sharks. Ollie Lawrence is the big inclusion in the backline after pulling out late last week. For the Warriors this week, it’s simply about returning to the basics, displaying a team effort and showing the will to fight. Worcester are in a rebuilding process as a club, they aren’t going to instantaneously turn their season around, however, what we need to see from this side is the willingness to compete. They need to be flying around in defence and match Sale physically to reinstall some hope into the fans that there are building blocks in place to turn the results around in the future. Even if we see silly errors and penalties from this side, the key marker for this club will be the effort we see. It’s up to Jonathan Thomas and his staff to motivate their side to not roll over and stay in the fight for 80 minutes.
As for Sale, it’s been a mixed bag this year but Sanderson will be relishing the opportunity to pick up a win against an out of form Worcester. Lood De Jager captains the Sharks looking to put in another big shift before jetting off to international duty once again. In the pack, Coenie Oosthuizen and JP Du Preez are the only changes from last week, Du Preez’s inclusion pushes Cobus Wiese into the back row with Jono Ross on the bench. There are a whole host of changes in the backline, Rob Du Preez returns from injury to start at fly-half replacing Wilkinson. Outside of him, Sam James moves into the centres in place of Manu Tuilagi who is in England camp whilst McGuigan and Hammersley are replaced by Solomona and Luke James respectively. In terms of gameplan, the Sharks forwards will look to lead the way. This extremely physical side will look to put a marker down from the opening whistle to force Worcester into mistakes. The lineout will be on full display no doubt as well, 13 of Sale’s 17 tries this season has stemmed from the lineout. If Sale were to lose this game, it will be because they put themselves under unnecessary pressure through silly errors and ill-discipline in the middle third of the pitch. The Sharks need to not overcomplicate and make sure they are physical up front, retain the ball and take chances when they are given to them.
This game is going to be a true test for Worcester as a club, after their last three results this game is a real test of character. It is imperative they turn in a respectable performance, even if that isn’t a win. I believe in what Jonathan Thomas is doing and I think that the key players returning will ensure Worcester are much improved. However, Sale simply have more talent than the Warriors and if they have any real ambitions of winning the Premiership this season, they can’t afford to lose these games particularly with their shaky form so far this year.
Prediction: Worcester Warriors 22 - 30 Sale Sharks
HARLEQUINS vs SARACENS
Sunday 31st October
Twickenham Stoop
15:00
The Stoop is the venue for the final fixture of Gallagher Premiership Round 7 as Quins host Sarries in a London derby. Both of these sides sit in the Top 3 of the Premiership with Quins just one point ahead of Saracens on the ladder. Whilst both sides will be missing their England internationals, this is set to be an enthralling encounter in front of a sold-out stadium.
As mentioned, Quins will be without their England cohort in Marler, Dombrandt, Smith and Marchant. To replace them, Garcia Botta starts at Loosehead with James Chisholm moving into the 6 jersey, pushing Tom Lawday into the vacant number 8 position. As well as those changes to the starting pack, Wilco Louw and club captain Stephan Lewies make their season debuts from the bench. Off season acquisition Tommy Allan is a straight swap for Smith at fly-half while Luke Northmore replaces Marchant at outside centre.
Game planning against a side like Saracens is always difficult, you know the defensive tenacity they bring but it’s the fact that they don’t make mistakes allowing teams to open them up. In saying that, we know that this Quins attack is potent enough to trouble anyone, Tommy Allan is going to need to display a full range of kicking for this contest. Short kicks over the defensive line, deep kicks to the corners and grubbers in behind will all be in use to try and exploit the space and keep the Sarries defence guessing. In the pack, Quins can’t let the likes of Christie and Wray disrupt their ruck ball. Sarries will be looking to slow their ball down at every opportunity and win turnovers when given even half a chance.
There will be a few Saracens looking to prove a point that Eddie Jones was wrong in not selecting them in the England squad. Mako and Billy Vunipola will no doubt provide a huge impact up front, leading the defensive line paired with some brutal ball carrying. With Mark McCall also missing a number of England Internationals, he has given Alex Lozowski the reigns at 10, as he did in Round 1. Tom Woolstencroft starts at hooker with Jamie George absent and Andy Christie gets another start in the back row after his impressive display last week. Whilst some big names are missing from this side, it won’t their game plan nor the wolfpack mentality they bring. Sarries will need to stifle Quins’ attacking rhythm by deploying their ever-present quick linespeed and through their ruck work. In attack it will be about winning the territory battle, they’ll look to force Quins into errors and penalties in the middle third of the pitch and then plug the ball into the corners to build attacking platforms. Alex Lozowski’s boot will also be key in this matchup, he went 7/7 at fly-half in round 1 and he’ll need a similar effort to keep putting scoreboard pressure on Quins.
This game is going to be a tactical battle, Saracens will look to employ their swarming defence to deny Quins this space they need to deploy their dangerous attack. On the other hand, Quins will look to to capitalise on any defensive lapses with their typical fast-paced attack. I think the loss of their England players leaves too many questions about Quins’ attacking combinations, particularly against one of the best defences in the country, thus, Saracens can sneak home.
Prediction: Harlequins 21 - 26 Saracens
