Round 8: Matchday Preview
LEICESTER TIGERS vs BATH RUGBY
Friday 5th November
Welford Road
19:45
Welford Road is the venue for this matchup between first and last place in the Premiership. These two sides have experienced completely different starts to the season, the Tigers remain the only unbeaten side in the Premiership and have won 8 on the bounce, whilst Bath are still searching for their first win of the campaign. The one ray of hope for Bath fans will be that their side has won five of their last six encounters against the Tigers, including 3 of their last 4 at Welford Road.
It’s hard to fathom but it feels as if Leicester continue to improve week on week. Even with multiple England internationals missing in action last week, they shifted into a different gear as they embarrassed Northampton on their own turf during the East Midlands derby. The balance that the Tigers have in the squad is excellent, the big forwards up front work tirelessly as a unit and seem to put in bone-crunching hits on their opposition every phase. The world-class talents of Genge, Van Staden, Wiese and Montoya, combined with the resurgence of players like Dan Cole linking with the engine room of Wells, Snyman & Green have this side bullying opponents like it’s nothing. The smothering defence and ruck pressure they build is an absolute nightmare for sides to deal with, not to mention their superb set-piece. In the backs, the rise of Dan Kelly, Harry Potter and Freddie Steward has been the perfect complement to the sensational form of George Ford who has been picking defences apart at will this entire season. Don’t even get me started on what Nemani Nadolo has contributed this year, the Fijian has been a menace for opposition defences. This week, the Tigers will be without Ellis Genge, Freddie Steward, Ben Youngs, Julian Montoya, Marco Van Staden, Jasper Wiese and Matias Moroni who all leave to play for their countries. However, Nic Dolly and George Martin will be available after not being selected in England’s 28 man squad, which is a huge boost. In the pack, Cyle brink makes his first appearance of the season replacing fellow South African Jasper Wiese at number 8, Nic Dolly slides straight back into the starting side and young Tommy Reffell starts at openside flanker in place of Marco Van Staden. There are three changes to the starting backline from last week, Van Poortvliet starts at scrum-half after his bench stint last week, Matt Scott fills in at outside-centre with Moroni on international duty and the in-form Harry Potter misses out with Guy Porter taking his place. For me, the only way Leicester lose is through their own vices. If the Tigers give Bath turnover ball and aren’t able to execute in the red zone, it creaks open the door for the visitors. However, if Steve Borthwick’s side perform the way they have been all season, they should have no trouble on their way to a bonus-point victory.
Bath have undoubtedly been the worst side in the Premiership through the first seven rounds. Without a win to their name yet, rumours continue to circulate about Stuart Hooper’s position at the club as well as other major structural changes. To make matters worse, it was announced this week that club stalwart Taulupe Faletau will leave the club at the end of the season. From this point forward, Bath need to start focusing on one performance at a time and look to improve week on week rather than focusing on results. The last two weeks, even though they were losses, were certainly a step forward. Against Wasps in particular, Bath looked completely different to their humiliation against Saracens a few weeks back. The attack looked smooth at times leading to some lovely passages of play and the defence, albeit narrow at times, was good in the middle third of the pitch. Whilst a Mike Williams red card and a lacking clinical edge at times cost them the game, there were positives to take out of their performance. For this contest, the West countrymen will once again be without their England contingent of Stuart, Ewels and Underhill. Stuart Hooper has made a host of changes from last week, up front Boyce, Du Toit, Williams and Bayliss are replaced by Schoeman, Dunn, Richards and Ellis respectively. Danny Cipriani is favoured at fly-half over Orlando Bailey who starts at fullback in De Glanville’s absence. Max Ojomoh who has arguably been Bath’s best player of the season, is moved to the bench to make way for Jonathan Joseph. It’s going to take a monumental effort if Bath are to pull a rabbit out of the hat and win this game. Their penalty count will need to be low, the Red Zone efficiency must be high and they’ll need to compete physically with the Leicester forwards and force George Ford to play behind a pack that’s going backwards. In all likelihood, Leicester will continue their winning ways but stranger things have happened on a rugby field….
With both sides being on complete opposite sides of the spectrum, you wouldn’t feel at all comfortable putting money on Bath to pull an upset in this spot. Whilst their recent head to head matchups against Leicester bode well, this clash is simply a mismatch of talent for Bath. For Leicester, even with a number of players jetting off for international duties, the depth in their squad is outstanding, plus they’ll have Nic Dolly and George Martin available. The power game the Tigers possess combined with George Ford’s red-hot form will be too much for a struggling Bath side to contend with. I’d be shocked if Leicester didn’t extend their winning start to the campaign, and in doing so, achieve their greatest start to a Premiership season in the club’s esteemed history.
Prediction: Leicester Tigers 41 - 17 Bath Rugby
BRISTOL BEARS vs WORCESTER WARRIORS
Saturday 6th November
Ashton Gate
15:00
The Bears and Warriors go head to head at Ashton Gate as both sides come into this contest off the back of much-needed wins. As each club doubled their win count for the season last week, they will both be viewing this as a crucial game in a bid to turn their respective seasons around. Bristol have enjoyed the rub of the green over Worcester in recent years winning four on the bounce against them. On the other side, Worcester will be looking to break their ‘away day hoodoo’ as the Warriors haven’t won an away game in any competition since September 2020.
Bristol’s performance last week was their best of the season by a long way, they started to show glimpses of last year’s form. We saw flashes of brilliance throughout and developments in the structure on both sides of the ball. In attack, they took advantage whenever they found the edge, leading to a number of clean breaks from their own territory and some stunning long-range tries. It was made much easier to find the edge as the forwards ran at pace, both with the ball and when selling dummy lines. In defence, the 33 points wasn’t an accurate reflection. The ill-discipline of the Bears was why the Exiles were able to rack up the points but when defending with a full complement, they were very good. Harry Thacker headlines an all new starting front-row and in the backs Alapati Leiua’s explosive running will be a feature from kick-off.
It’s early in the season, but this feels like a huge week for the Bears. They’re big favourites in this contest and they’ll need to win if there’s any hope of a Top 4 push for Pat Lam’s side. Playing at pace will be the key in this matchup, they can’t get bogged down into a kicking battle with the Warriors and allow them to keep this game in the tight. Instead, they will need to deploy their typical running rugby but ensure that their accuracy is at the level it was last week. In defence, it will be about discipline. Three yellow cards almost cost them the game last week and if Worcester are in the mood, they won’t get away with a similar penalty count going unpunished.
Jonathan Thomas will be thrilled with his side’s performance last week. In response to three drubbings in a row, the Warriors showed a spirited effort in overcoming a strong Sale side. With the return of Ted Hill and Ollie Lawrence, Worcester looked like a completely transformed side compared to previous weeks. Shillcock and Van Der Merwe ran the show in behind a resurgent forward pack who continuously shunted the Sharks’ big ball carriers backwards. Whilst it was only one week, we at the Tight Five have been bullish on our belief that Jonathan Thomas can change the culture at Worcester and steer the club in the right direction. This week, Worcester will have to do without Rory Sutherland and Duhan Van Der Merwe, both on Scotland duty. Ethan Wller and Perry Humphreys take their places respectively. The rest of the lineup only has a few tweaks with Andrew Kitchener replacing his brother Graham, and Kvesic taking the place of Vailanu at no8.
For the Warriors this week, it will be about piecing together a similar performance to last week. The defensive improvements last week will need to be replicated in order to make sure Bristol aren’t able to find the edge. The communication and connectedness in the defensive line were the two evident changes from previous weeks and they’ll need to be on point again. If the Warriors can limit their turnover ball, contain the number of Bristol linebreaks and show the same attacking creativity as last week, they have a genuine shot to record back to back Premiership wins for the first time since 2019.
This is a tough game in which to decide a winner. We saw last week that both sides, when on song, can play magnificent rugby and trouble sides slightly off their game. However, on numerous occasions, both have been way off the pace and turned in some dreadful outings. The home advantage and Worcester lacking some of their star players on international duty mean we’re picking Bristol to edge this one.
Prediction: Bristol Bears 31 - 27 Worcester Warriors
SARACENS vs LONDON IRISH
Saturday 6th November
StoneX Stadium
15:00
The matchup features two teams at opposite ends of the table. Saracens have only lost one game this season and are only behind Leicester on the table. On the other hand, London Irish have only managed one win on the season and sit 8th on the ladder. Saracens have dominated this matchup over recent years, beating the Exiles in 8 straight contests. Declan Kidney’s side will be looking to chalk up back-to-back away wins for the first time since the 19/20 season.
The Saracens machine just continues to motor. Their win over Harlequins at the Stoop last week was typical of Sarries, staying in the fight and winning the key moments to secure the victory. A 76th minute Jackson Wray try topped off another ‘grind it out’ victory for Mark McCall’s side who have now won 4 in a row and have the highest points difference in the Premiership. This week, Ben Earl is back into the starting lineup at the back of the scrum with Wray and Christie filling out the back row. In Vincent Koch’s absence, Alec Clarey also starts at tighthead. In the backs, Alex Goode moves from fullback to fly-half, shifting Lozowski to outside centre to fill the void of Nick Tompkins, Obatoyinbo fills the vacancy in the 15 jersey. The StoneX stadium is one of the hardest places to visit for opposition teams. The stranglehold that Saracens put teams in means that you need some attacking magic in order to beat them. For Mark McCall’s side, it will be about shutting down that London Irish attack. With lots of box kicking and the wolfpack mentality in defence to contend with, Irish’s opening will be provided if Saracens discipline is poor. In attack, forward runners coming at pace have been a real problem for the Exiles defence this year. The likes of Wray, Vunipola and Isiekwe will no doubt be deploying their excellent link play to punch holes through the defence.
London Irish are a tough side to figure out this year. After one of the best performances of any team this season in their win over Exeter, they backed it up with a very lacklustre display in their loss to Bristol. Last week, the Exiles issue was their inability to capitalise on Red Zone chances. As Bristol turned half chances into tries, London Irish continuously squandered great chances from close range. On the defensive side, they couldn’t deal with forward runners coming in waves, as they haven’t all season. The defence in the wide channels also needs to improve, far too often Bristol were able to exploit overlaps, leading to clean breaks. This week, Declan Kidney has made 5 changes to the starting forward pack; Creevy, Van Der Merwe, Coleman, Nott and Pearson all start. Outside of them, Terrence Hepetema replaces Curtis Rona at 13 whilst Kyle Rowe starts on the wing in place of Stokes. It’s gonna take a similar performance to the one against Exeter in order to beat this Sarries side. London Irish need to have the defensive resilience they showed in that game, reading out the back plays well and not allow the Sarries forwards to win collisions throughout. In attack, it will be about trying to stretch that Saracens defence, if they can maintain an attacking flow with limited handling errors, the Exiles will cause the home side trouble.
Irish’s inconsistency paired with Saracen’s ability to kill teams even slightly off the pace is why we’re predicting a comfortable home win. It feels as if Sarries are playing with a chip on their shoulder after their year in the Championship, the effort of their players is second to none and there’s no surprise that the game planning is always on point from Mark McCall, one of the best coaches in the game. We can’t imagine a scenario where Sarries don’t extend their win streak to 5, especially with the home advantage.
Prediction: Saracens 33 - 18 London Irish
SALE SHARKS vs NORTHAMPTON SAINTS
Saturday 6th November
AJ Bell Stadium
17:00
Both of these sides are looking to avenge their disappointing losses from last week. The Sharks are not where many expected them to be before the season started, sitting in 10th place and having won just one of their last six league fixtures. However, their home form has been commendable, they’ll be looking to improve on their 9-1 home record (in their last 10 games) in order to get back on track. Northampton on the other hand sit in 4th place but after winning their opening three games, have won just one of their last three. Last week the Saints became the first-ever Premiership side to score 50 points one week and then ship 50 the next week.
Alex Sanderson will be incredibly disappointed with his side’s performance in their loss to Worcester last week. Their set-piece didn’t function well and the defence in the wide channels was average at best. However, the most worrying aspect was how one-dimensional their attack was, it was almost as if they expected gaps in the defence to appear after shifting the ball from one side of the pitch to the other. Nevertheless, the inclusions of Akker Van Der Merwe, AJ MacGinty and Byron McGuigan (who were all absent last week) will be huge boosts for the Sharks. It’s imperative for Sale that they make up for the loss of key members in the forward pack by employing some brutal levels of physicality. Their win over Quins earlier in the year showed how much they can frustrate sides when they’re slowing their ruck ball down and making them play off the back foot. AJ MacGinty back in the 10 jersey is a huge inclusion for this side, he is the missing puzzle piece needed to get the Sharks attack firing. The American will be looking to take advantage of any space in behind with little chips over the defensive line as well as exploit any 50:22 opportunities.
The Saints couldn’t back up their 66-10 victory against Worcester last week as they got thumped by Leicester in the East Midlands derby. Chris Boyd has constantly made the point that his side’s consistency has been their biggest problem over the last 2 seasons, that point was once again highlighted last week. Now, don’t get me wrong, 4th on the ladder is still impressive but it’s frustrating to see this side go two steps forward and three steps back over the last three weeks. For this week, the Saints get back Lewis Ludlam and Tommy Freeman after neither were retained in the England squad for this week’s game against Tonga. Those two have been excellent this season and are both huge inclusions, it will certainly lift the side. Elsewhere, there are 4 other changes in the pack with Fish, Hill, Moon and Wilkins included. As well as Tommy Freeman, there are two changes in the backs, the half-back pairing of Mitchell and Biggar are replaced with Tom James and James Grayson. With Sale looking to assert their dominance physically, the Saints will need to match them. The forwards will need to provide gainline success in order for the backs to enforce their running rugby in the wide channels. As well as that, the Saints have to hold their own in the set-piece, if the Sharks get ascendency at the scrum they will have no problem knocking on that door all game long and getting territory off the back of it. Provided the forwards get-go forward, it’s up to the backs to execute chances. Northampton have been great at scoring in attacking sets when the passing is crisp and runners are in sync, against a vulnerable Sharks defence, they can cause all sorts of trouble if they can execute in the Red Zone.
This would be a statement win for either side. It will be a ‘win is a win’ mentality for both, even if the performance isn’t great, coming away with a W would be a big momentum shifter for both clubs. The return of Van Der Merwe and MacGinty combined with the absence of Northampton’s influential halfback pairing of Mitchell and Biggar is why I think the Sharks can control this game and get the win. MacGinty in particular is a huge inclusion, he lifts the side and provides the control Alex Sanderson’s side need to win tight contests.
Prediction: Sale Sharks 22 - 20 Northampton Saints
EXETER CHIEFS vs NEWCASTLE FALCONS
Saturday 6th November
Sandy Park
WASPS vs HARLEQUINS
Sunday 7th November
Coventry Building Society Arena
16:30
Wasps hosts Quins to close out the international-less round 8. Wasps have shown that their ground has become somewhat of a fortress with just one defeat at the hands of Exeter in Coventry. Harlequins started the season the way they finished last and as the season begins to mature into this middle-period, they will be tested as the stars who led them to domestic glory are now, justly, appreciated by the national side.
Wasps welcome back a number of players and have not been heavily hit by the international call-ups. They will be looking to take advantage of this window to notch some crucial wins and they will no doubt look to get started this Sunday. Just three changes for the Wasps side that dealt with Bath a week ago. Nizaam Carr and Thomas Young swap places with the South African getting the nod to start. In the backs, Ali Crossdale swaps in at fullback for Marcus Watson and Will Porter starts at scrum-half with Dan Robson unavailable.
The key to Wasps success this season has been their vastly improved defence, especially at home. Against Quins it is imperative that their defence is as compact and resilient as it has proven to be against Northampton, and also in the loss to Exeter. Quins are missing some of their stars, but their pack held up well against Saracens last week and thus task 1 will be halting any momentum and quick ball that the Quins pack will be looking to generate. The inclusion of Nizaam Carr suggests that Lee Blackett is expecting his team to impose themselves physically, keep hold of possession and carry with intent. The absence of Dan Robsonis notable, as he is the true fulcrum of Wasps’ attack and his control at the base of the ruck creates numerous opportunities for Wasps’ agile and powerful runners. Jimmy Gopperth too provides Umaga with a much needed secondary playmaking option which makes Wasps’ attack much more diverse and difficult to read, not to mention the goal kicking accuracy that the Kiwi provides. Nonetheless, the solidity of Lee Blackett’s gameplan and forward pack should be able to impose a strong running game and lockdown defence on one of the best attacking sides in the league. The likes of Oghre and Fifita will run intelligent lines that produce half-breaks that Wasps can build momentum off of.
Harlequins showed last week that despite lacking a few of their top performers, they are still not only a very capable side, but that they play with the exact same mentality. The accuracy was missing at times, but they really put teams under so much pressure and at times their attack is so gloriously diverse and full of options that it is virtually unplayable. The Londoners make three changes from last week's starting XV. Will Edwards gets his first start in the coveted 10 jersey, replacing Allan who suffered his third head-knock of the season. Nick David also gets his first start of the season on the right wing in place of Louis Lynagh who was called up to the England squad and will thus be rested for Quins. Lastly, Matt Symons is back at lock sending Hugh Tizard to the bench once again.
The ‘jokers’ will look to do what they do best - outscore opponents. It sounds silly, but they’ve proven that in a shootout, they almost unequivocally get the better of their opponents. The minimal ball in play time that they need to score tries is, in my experience, almost unprecedented in the Premiership. They remind me of a Super Rugby side or even to the most extreme to Fiji Sevens in the way they can score tries in such brief periods of time. Despite missing two of their most potent attacking weapons in Smith and Dombrandt, they still create opportunities in abundance. The key for them this week will be to be more accurate than last week and finish opportunities.
This game can go in two directions. Either it becomes a classic Wasps vs Quins shootout with 30+ points scored by both sides, or it is a tighter affair where Wasps’ defence can withhold Quins’ attack and both sides score off of the quality of their individuals. In the case of the former, Quins are most likely to win. However, I expect the latter to occur. Wasps know the dangers that Quins withhold in their arsenal, and their defence has proven capable of containing powerful defences. Their goal line defence being exemplary on many occasions. Thus, I expect Wasps to contain Quins as much as possible and possibly edge them off the back of the territorial advantages that their set-piece can give them as well as their gamebreakers ability to match Quins try-scoring ability.
Prediction: 28 - 23
Saints vs Exiles at the Gardens
